AFC Championship Preview: Best bets for Bills-Chiefs
Can’t decide on a side? Why a back-and-forth instant classic will result in a good “square” bet
It’s the type of story that makes us love sports.
Two teams meet year after year, and while one side does well in the regular season matchups, proving they CAN beat the league’s Goliath, they’re still waiting for that breakthrough moment - being able to finally get past the consistent champion come playoff time.
The Bills have come close. From 2021 to 2023, the Bills won at Kansas City during the season, and belief was instilled, right up until the point where Buffalo either didn’t get to a meeting with the Chiefs (2022) or lost to K.C. in heart-breaking fashion (the “13 Seconds Game” and last year’s 3-point loss in Buffalo). Given that Buffalo has shown they can beat Kansas City - literally in the regular season and figuratively in the playoffs, the assumption might be that this is the year for the Bills, especially since the Chiefs had the most publicized stretch of winning-without-covering of any team ever.
Mainstream football media spoke about this in antiquated code, referring to the Chiefs as a team they can’t believe has the record they do because they “don’t blow teams out anymore” or “just barely do enough to win” instead of simply saying that they weren’t covering a point spread built on market (football fans’) perception of them.
Unlike last week, where we had to work around the knowledge that the Chiefs weren’t likely to cover a big number (and needed a blocked field goal to do it) while also not wanting to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, Kansas City is really just being asked to win - something they’re pretty good at.
The point spread is wavering slightly between -1.5 and -2, which is essentially the entirety of the value put on home-field advantage by oddsmakers who have made the league-average for HFA at around 1.75. If you give Arrowhead two points for home-field, the fractional difference between that and the closing line is the perceived difference between these two teams.
Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5, 47.5)
Any point spread of less than -2, implies the betting market thinks the Bills are the better team, but it’s a separation of 1% (a team rating of say, 72/100 to 71/100).
You know those win probability graphics that you see on social media anytime there’s a fourth-down decision? The ones that say you have a 37% chance of winning if you go for it, versus 36% if you kick? The difference between these two teams is so slight, that any sub-optimal step when it comes to those close decisions would make up for the gap between these two teams.
Ie. If Sean McDermott picks the wrong door on a fourth-down decision, regardless of whether it works or not, he’s giving up his team’s tiny advantage of being the better team.
Now imagine if something big happens, a turnover (on downs or via missed field goal), a drive-extending penalty, or even a good bounce that helps one side convert a first down. That changes everything.
Going into last Sunday’s game, the Bills knew something had to change against the Ravens, so they put together a defensive game plan that would give themselves a chance.
Taron Johnson went from playing 98% of the snaps in the Wild Card round (akin to his usual usage) to just 61% against the Ravens. The Bills put a third linebacker on the field for 24 snaps (compared to 0 the week before), and used big boys - Austin Johnson and Jordan Phillips on 20 more snaps than against the Broncos. Given that Derrick Henry had 16 carries on 35 snaps (for 84 yards), they did a good enough job slowing the Ravens’ big-play weapon and deterring Baltimore from giving Henry the ball 25+ times.
The Bills also turned the Ravens over three times to their zero, but still needed a Mark Andrews’ dropped 2-point conversion to seal the victory.
In their first meeting this season, Mahomes threw two interceptions to Josh Allen’s one, and the only converted fourth down was Allen’s game-sealing touchdown run late in the fourth quarter.
The Bills won the high-leverage plays in both matchups - their only two games this season that truly meant something - thanks to an easy AFC East championship run. Splitting back-to-back shootouts with the Rams and Lions were interesting, but had very low stakes long-term.
In Week 11’s game with the Chiefs, Buffalo was missing Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and Matt Milano, and Kansas City was without Marquis Brown and Jaylen Watson. This time around, the Bills’ defense has some injury concerns with Milano, Taylor Rapp, and Christian Benford all questionable.
In each case, the personnel changes improve the probability of offensive success for both sides. While it’s going to be predictably cold, both teams are used to such conditions. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been what it was last year, but they were able to take advantage of the Texans’ holes in their offensive line, Houston’s disorganization on key plays, and a lack of explosive talent due to the attrition of the season. All limiting the Texans’ chances of scoring. That meant the Chiefs didn’t have any urgency to score more points than they had to, which helped us cash on Kansas City’s team total under 25.5.
This week, the Bills are going to put up the points that the Texans couldn’t. Working backwards in the aforementioned games from 2021, they’ve scored 30, 24, 20, 24, 36 and 38 points, averaging 28.6 per game against Kansas City.
Only the Broncos, Jets, and Eagles allowed fewer yards per play this season than Houston’s defense, while only six teams allowed more YPP than Buffalo. With the most healthy options he’s had all season, not to mention “playoff Travis Kelce,” Mahomes can take on a Bills’ defense that can’t just switch personnel to make the bad man (Henry) go away. There’s no personnel move to limit one of the best QBs ever.
The one thing we know about this matchup is that it should come down to whoever gets the key break or makes one more play. A game like that probably means that both teams are pushing each other to score for 60 minutes. With neither providing elite defense to slow the other, and both quarterbacks’ ability to convert drive-extending plays when necessary, a modest point total of 47.5 is doable.
Pick: Over 47.5 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
Josh Allen: Over 20.5 completions (+100 at FanDuel)
This is what the Bills have rebuilt their offense for. This game, against this team.
Instead of having to hope to connect on a deep shot or two, the Bills’ “everybody eats” offense was redesigned to have Allen spreading the ball around to a seemingly never-ending list of skill-position options. None of them amazing, but all of them capable. The best thing the Chiefs do is stop the run, and their defensive line is as healthy as it’s been all season. If Kansas City shows they can get pressure on Allen, that only exacerbates the need for shorter routes, quicker passes, and more of them.
James Cook: Under 13.5 rush attempts (+100 at DraftKings)
All of the above applies to James Cook’s usage, but we’ll also quickly add that the Bills have other options - both in the run game, and ways to get the ball to Cook.
Keon Coleman: Over 1.5 receptions (-110 at DraftKings)
Khalil Shakir is the clear No. 1 target amongst the wide receivers, but the Bills didn’t have Keon Coleman the first time these two teams met. While the Chiefs’ have slot-corner extraordinaire, Chamarri Conner, to put on Shakir when they go man-to-man, Coleman doesn’t command the assignment of the opposition’s No. 1 cornerback, which is why he had three targets against the Broncos.
Coleman plays the second-most snaps (to Shakir) of the wide receiver group, and the Bills’ rookie should be a slightly more popular target than usual in a game the Bills will have to keep scoring.
Amari Cooper: Longest reception - Under 12.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
On the flip side of that, Allen makes it a point to get Amari Cooper a catch in each game, but that’s often on a quick-throw to the outside when the cornerback is playing off, but outside of Cooper’s first game (against the dreadful Titans) and the shootout with the Rams, Cooper’s gotten no more than three looks in any game and only two long catches. Allen’s one or two completions to Cooper should be for less than 13 yards.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 4.5 rush attempts (+100 at Bet365)
Take the handicap from last week’s Texans-Chiefs game, and reapply that here. It’s the playoffs, and Mahomes is running. Of all the things that happened in the first matchup, Mahomes not running once is the least relevant to the matchup comparison this Sunday.
Samaje Perine: Over 8.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
It will be interesting to see what the Chiefs’ first- and second-downs look like. If the Bills aren’t busting out the “Henry Plan” with heavy, run-stopping personnel, will the Chiefs try to run on repeat. While that’s probably a good game plan in theory, when you have Patrick Mahomes, you don’t do that. If it’s strength-on-strength, the Chiefs will have some third downs, and Perine will be involved to relieve the Bills’ pressure.
Considering that Perine had 10 or more receiving yards in 14 of 17 regular-season games, a more standard distribution would make it highly probable that Perine goes over 8.5.
Marquise Brown: Longest reception - Over 16.5 receiving yards (-118 at FanDuel)
Only four players caught a pass from Mahomes last week, and Xavier Worthy was the only wide receiver with a grab. Although, Marquise Brown had two targets, including a near-catch on a deep ball. The whole passing distribution pie was an outlier.
Brown’s snap count went up again (from 27% to 40% to 67%), so he’ll continue to get looks and considering he had long catches of 17 and 20 yards in his two regular-season games, we know the depth of target is there.
Josh Allen: Anytime touchdown (-105, Bet365)
Allen could have had four rushing touchdowns last week. The Bills opted to hand the ball off (to Ray Davis!?!) early and then fell short on an Allen carry late. The point is that his odds haven’t been altered despite being clearly the primary postseason option anywhere near the goal line.
Mack Hollins: Anytime touchdown (+650, FanDuel)
Ty Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+700, FanDuel)
Dawson Knox: Anytime touchdown (+700, FanDuel)
Allen (and Davis!?!) was hoovering up all the touchdowns against the Ravens, but this week, we expect that Allen’s going to have to throw the ball more, especially to score. Given how good the Chiefs’ secondary is, we’re looking at a trio of semi-unorthodox, potential pass-catchers at longer odds.
We tried both Ty Johnson and Dawson Knox last week, and the same handicap applies. Meanwhile, at +650, we’ll add Mack Hollins, as the biggest red-zone target, and one that Allen’s built some trust in.
If one of three scores, that turns us a profit.
Kareem Hunt: Anytime touchdown (+190, DraftKings)
By the nature of the playoffs - where a team advances to play the next week, you’re going to have some repeat bets from week-to-week. The one thing that deters that is if the market catches up and the odds are reset to reflect what our fair price is. For example, FanDuel has the tailback split - Kareem Hunt (+165) and Isiah Pacheco (+210), which is probably fair pricing. At DraftKings, Hunt being available at +190 with Pacheco at +180 provides value on the tailback that’s more likely to get a goal line carry (or catch a pass).
Xavier Worthy: Anytime touchdown (+200, Bet365)
Before Hunt scored last week, Worthy was stopped just shy of the goal line on a play that was designed for the rookie speedster to score. It’s one play of at least four different designed calls for Worthy that I’ve seen this season. Because he fell short, the odds don’t change this week, so we’ll try it again.
Noah Gray: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)
You know the red zone - the place teams have tried to rename the “green zone”, well, once we get over 5-to-1 odds on an anytime touchdown for him, we find ourselves in the little known “Gray Zone” - the area in which we bet on Noah Gray to score.
Last week, Gray was one of the few to have a catch from Mahomes, and, as always, he was on the field for more than half the snaps. It was the rare game where Gray didn’t have a red zone target, since he finished the regular season with seven such targets in six of seven games (not including Week 18 where he played four snaps).
Samaje Perine: Anytime touchdown (+1100, FanDuel)
Let’s finish up with a “just in case” half-unit on the Chiefs’ third-down back. Perine won’t be on the field for even 20 snaps, but when he is, it’s in passing situations. In keeping with the logic with our bet on him to go over his receiving yards number, Perine, who caught at least one pass in all-but-one game this season, has the best chance to find the end zone of any of those lined in the double-digits.