AFC Division betting breakdown

A little bit of everything in the four AFC divisional betting markets

No one can decide who should be the favorite in the AFC East. It’s allegedly a two-horse race in the AFC North - or IS IT? The Chiefs are probably going to win the west for the 27th time in a row. While the AFC South begs the question, “is a longshot going to do it again?”

AFC East

Theoretical synthetic hold: 0.7%

A note on theoretical hold: Adding up the four implied win probabilities on any oddsboard will give you an idea of the hold (or profit margin) that the sportsbook is taking on that market. By using multiple sportsbooks, you can combine their best offerings to create a synthetic oddsboard of your own. Add up implied probabilities for the best available prices and you can cut the edge that one sportsbook has down to almost next to none. 

The AFC East has the collective betting market so confused that all three contenders have been considered the favorite at various points of the offseason at various sportsbooks. So let’s look at each team’s argument. 

I don’t believe that Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy for 17 games. Even a rebuilt offensive line replete with veteran tackles (who may have their own health issues) won’t keep Rodgers untouched. It’s entirely possible that, if he hadn’t been hurt four plays into last season (without being touched), he would have been hurt eventually.

Since Rodgers - and the assumption of quality quarterback play - is the Jets’ big argument to win 11+ games (the likely minimum to take the division), I can’t buy into it. Though there are other ways we’ll play on the concept of the Jets having a good season. 

The Bills don’t get the Patriots (twice) until December. While those games will come in handy for a late season push, that doesn’t help their stock early on. Playing a first-place schedule, Buffalo has only three games before Week 15 where they’re considered a notable favorite. Considering we’re looking for bets whose odds will improve, the Bills aren’t a good option.

It’s a small consolation for blowing the AFC East last season, but of the Dolphins’ first 11 games this year, ten of them are matchups where they’re projected to win 59% of the time or more. That kind of comfy scheduling setup will come in handy as they reintegrate some of the key defensive pieces that may not make it back from injury for the start of the season. 

I likely don’t have to sell you on the Dolphins’ offense, which is the most proven commodity on any of the three contending teams. That’s enough to start a position on the Dolphins, and then evaluate the landscape in the AFC East midway through the season. 

Pick: Dolphins (+230, at Pointsbet)

AFC North

Theoretical synthetic hold: 4.6%

Maybe it’s just the nature of how odds work, but the Browns are the only team in the AFC North who can make a case that things can only get better from the perception of where they are now. 

Expectations are pretty high for a Ravens team that finished the 2023 regular season with the highest rating in the NFL, and with the division as tough as it ever has been, buying Baltimore at a short number isn’t viable. 

Don’t look now, but the Bengals have drawn even with the Ravens at +145 apiece at a number of sportsbooks. I can’t shake how bad the Bengals were defensively last year, and I’ll need to see someone emerge in the run game to put a full “buy” sign on Cincinnati as a team. Instead, I rather isolate Joe Burrow - the best thing going in the Queen City south of Over-the-Rhine - in individual performance markets. 

The Browns, however, have a price that’s set because of the uncertainty of what they’ll get from Deshaun Watson, the cornerstone of the offense, Nick Chubb, being out for at least the first four games, and a defense that was exposed by the Texans in the playoffs. 

So why bet on the Browns? Because two-time Coach of the Year, Kevin Stefanski regular makes something out of nothing, so roster stress is par for the course for him, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, and the king of chicken salad transformations, Mike Vrabel, lingering in the shadows. If a talented defense performs well in situations that aren’t tailor-made for them, and the offense gets something close to the prime versions of Watson and Chubb, Cleveland’s just as capable as the dual favorites, but at triple the payout. 

Pick: Browns (+550 at Bet365)

AFC West

Theoretical synthetic hold: 3.2%

The Chiefs are going to win the AFC West again. They might even be a valuable bet if you think they’re more than 70% likely to do so and can get -250. However, a 2.5-unit bet that rests on any NFL player staying healthy for the vast majority of 17 games, isn’t all that appealing. Part of the calculus in the Chiefs not winning the AFC West, of course, is finding an alternative. 

The Chargers seem like they should be the second choice.

They have Jim Harbaugh! A top quarterback in Justin Herbert!

However, outside of Rashawn Slater and Derwin James, the Chargers are running low on reliable high-end talent in their prime. There’s only so much Harbaugh can do this year.

Meanwhile, the Raiders might be able to carry over the momentum and general good vibes from Antonio Pierce taking over last year with a respectable finish, but there’s still not enough talent beyond Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby to take advantage of any hypothetical hole there might be, if trouble actually arose in Kansas City. 

That leaves the Broncos, who, if they weren’t 20-to-1 and were anywhere near the other teams on the oddsboard, we would toss them aside as well. However, after Sean Payton’s first year, where he was saddled with Russell Wilson and ill-fitting defensive pieces, he’s had a full cycle to affect change in the organization. Maybe that’s no Bo Nix, but Payton’s been around a long time and should know what it looks like when a quarterback has “it.” The offensive line is the strength of the team, and Nix has a deep enough stable of playmaking options to where veterans Tim Patrick and Semaje Perine were deemed expendable. 

Denver’s defensive talent won’t jump off the page, but the results for Vance Joseph got a lot better in the latter half of the season once Ja’Quan McMillian moved into a more prominent role in the secondary, and they shed some veterans in the front-seven and got healthier. 

It’s quite literally a longshot, so a smaller wager is fine, and if you can find a market that asks the Broncos to finish in second place at +600 or better, that’s a safer way to play on Denver being underrated, for a still sizeable payout. 

Pick: Broncos (+2200) and/or “to finish second place” (+650)

AFC South

Theoretical synthetic hold: 5.4%

There aren’t any elite defenses in the AFC South, so let’s look at each team the way most football fans do - as a symbol of their quarterback. 

The Texans have C.J. Stroud, last year’s rookie of the year, who lit up the league with an offense that was only capable of passing success. However, is that an ideal formula to win football games? Not historically. 

Meanwhile, the jury is still out on both Anthony Richardson, who played the better part of two games last year, and Will Levis. Should we bet on them taking a huge leap into their second season, without a defensive unit to rely on when things aren’t going well?

Trevor Lawrence was supposed to be the next big thing, but now there’s all sorts of question marks as Stroud is the new golden boy. Through 11 games last year, as the Jaguars continued the momentum from a successful playoff showing, Jacksonville had just won in Houston to go to 8-3, and were up a touchdown heading to the fourth quarter against the Burrow-less Bengals. Then Lawrence got hurt, the Jags blew that game, and a hobbled Lawrence was affected in the remaining games, only beating the woeful Panthers the rest of the way. 

Is that who the current Jaguars are though? Or should their odds be tighter to Houston? The Texans are going for it, with offseason veteran additions to take advantage of the window they have while Stroud’s under a rookie contract. The Jaguars addressed their needs in less flashy ways, grabbing Arik Armstead, Darnell Savage and Ronald Darby to join very underrated players like Josh Hines-Allen, tackling machine Foye Oluokun, and the still very young combo of Devin Lloyd and Travon Walker.

The Colts and Titans are both capable of taking a step forward, but all that’s asked of Anthony Richardson and Will Levis is to show development. Whereas, the Jaguars think that, if not for an injury, they’d be 2-time division champions. 

Pick: Jaguars (+294 at Pinnacle)