Big 12 Preview: The wide open range
Let’s just get this out of the way - the Big 12’s gotten weird.
That’s not even a bad thing. The conference is going to be entertaining, and if you peer down to the oddsboard, there’s no prohibitive favorite, which is sweet.
All of this is a result of seeing the two biggest brands - Texas and Oklahoma - leave the conference, replaced by what most would admit are the second-round draft picks of the PAC-12: Utah, Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado (returning to the conference).
Part of what we’re going to try to do in this space is point out situations where the block might be getting too hot. It’s an inexact non-science, but rarely does (seemingly) everyone all pile in on a team like Central Florida and it all works out smoothly. So, we’ll note that the Knights have been given a lot of attention, as their +900 conference odds are much shorter than were originally offered.
Speaking of a hype-train, Deion Sanders (we had to mention him ASAP… you know, for SEO reasons) and Colorado gets a new conference to annoy their opponents’ in. Even 28-to-1 seems a little short for a team that kept getting kicked in the teeth in the final two months of last season.
Team Rating Nationally
Since you can read about how point spreads are built in the NFL in an earlier post on this very Substack, we don’t need to rehash the entire thing here, other than to note that there’s a different divisor in college football. For me, that number is 63. It’s far greater than the NFL of 27 since the best college football team is that much better than the worst FBS squad. Ie. If peak Georgia wanted to beat the worst version of UMass by 10+ touchdowns, they could. It’s just not necessarily their goal, so going back to 2022 and making that line UGA -63 is as high as I’d be willing to go.
There’s seven real points between Utah - the highest rated team - and the next eight schools. This is particularly significant, since any matchup you want to cook up from that group might have a point spread under a field goal, making a team’s schedule particularly important.
Best bets
Iowa State (+1000, Bet365)
College football’s volatility from season-to-season makes it difficult to apply statistics from the previous year to try to predict anything, but if you could come up with a checklist of things you’d want when searching for value down the board, it might look like this:
Returning production and transfer portal talent additions
Coaching continuity
A returning quarterback with upside
A beneficial schedule
Entering his ninth season in Ames, I’ve given Matt Campbell a hard time about failing in the role as a favorite, but projected in the middle portion of the Big 12 hierarchy, they’re in a comfortable spot for us to be backing the Cyclones, who had the best TARP (transfer activity & returning production) rating by the Action Network.
Redshirt sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht showed flashes of brilliance last season, and you could do a lot worse than handing it off to sophomore Abu Sana. The two big changes are on the offensive line, but if you’re going to add a center (Dylan Barrett), one from Wisconsin’s probably a good move, and if you’re going to Princeton for a left tackle (Jalen Travis), he’s likely a standout.
The CyHawk is at Iowa City this year, so a win total of 7.5 (over -130) isn’t that appealing, given the Cyclones have to go to Kansas and Utah as well. But if they could have two conference losses going into the finale with Kansas State, a win over the Wildcats might get them in to the Big 12 title game.
Kansas (+1000, FanDuel)
We’re going to take a 2-pronged approach in the Big 12, effectively creating a bet at +500 that either Iowa State or Kansas wins the conference.
More than a few may be forgetting how much of an electric factory Jalon Daniels is, given how much time he’s missed the last two seasons, and not making it to October last year. However, Kansas should have their typically strong offense under Lance Leipold, with an improved defense that doesn’t have to try to slow down Texas and Oklahoma in two of their 12 games this season.
The Jayhawks’ schedule has to be the cushiest in the conference, as I’d be surprised if they don’t start 7-0. At which point, their two toughest games - @ Kansas State, vs. Iowa State - come with a bye in-between. Then they close the season with BYU, Colorado and Baylor. That matchup with the Cyclones might end up being a de facto semi-final, and if Utah stumbles at all, maybe there is a rematch in Dallas, where we don’t care who wins one iota.
Regular season win total
BYU: Under 4.5 (-128, FanDuel)
BYU should be favored in their first (vs. Southern Illinois) and last (vs. Houston) game of the season, but it’s hard to find another likely win on the schedule for a team who Athlon Sports says has the worst quarterback situation in the conference.
The Cougars move to the Big 12 last season came with some harsh reality and a 2-7 conference record. With a neutral TARP rating, it’s hard to imagine their talent level has gotten better for a team who traditionally relies on being older and more physically mature than their opponents.
Arizona: Under 7.5 (-104, FanDuel)
The excitement in Tucson from last season might have carried over into 2024 but Nick Saban had to go and retire.
Wait, what?
Just when Jedd Fisch got things rolling in the desert last season, he took off to Washington to replace Kalen DeBoer (who replaced Saban at Alabama).
On the surface, with the connection of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan coming back, it seems like Arizona should continue their momentum. However, with a negative TARP rating and a new head coach, there’s no guarantee of that. Given last year’s team came into the season with a win expectancy of 4.85 (4.5 juiced to the over), asking Brent Brennan to win eight games in his first season in a power conference (and the Wildcats’ first look at the Big 12) is asking too much.