Big Ten Preview: Ohio State looks to fend off contenders from all directions
Recently, the Big Ten’s hierarchy looked something like this:
Michigan > Ohio State >> Penn State >>>>>>>>>>>>> Everybody else
Is it still a hierarchy if it’s depicted sideways? Something to think about.
But, because no one can sit still, with the promise of big dollars on the other side of the fence, the upper-echelon of the conference formerly known as the PAC-12(/10/8) is kicking in the door at Big Ten headquarters, ready to answer the question, “What if (fill-in-the-blank PAC-12 team) had to play a Big Ten schedule?”
Three of the four new teams find themselves in the top-10 on the conference oddsboard, but there’s one team that is built to quack the loudest in Year 1 of the new-look Big Ten.
It’s not just Jim Harbaugh’s departure, but also J.J. McCarthy being replaced by Alex Orji and his one career pass attempt, as to why Michigan has dropped below Penn State in the betting market’s assessment of their likelihood for another Big Ten title.
Team Rating Nationally
Since you can read about how point spreads are built in the NFL in an earlier post on this very Substack, we don’t need to rehash the entire thing here, other than to note that there’s a different divisor in college football. For me, that number is 63. It’s far greater than the NFL of 27 since the best college football team is that much better than the worst FBS squad. Ie. If peak Ohio State wanted to beat the worst version of UMass by 10+ touchdowns, they could. It’s just not necessarily their goal, so going back to 2022 and making that line OSU -63 is as high as I’d be willing to go.
Ohio State leads the way for the Big Ten nationally, as Buckeye Nation believes they’ve answered last year’s big question at quarterback, bringing in dual-threat Will Howard from Kansas State (among other big-time transfers) and having new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly at the controls of a highly-experienced pivot.
Best bets
Oregon to win Big Ten (+220, FanDuel)
We don’t need to rehash our favorite team from a betting standpoint last season - Washington - and their run to the College Football Playoff… but it doesn’t hurt the vibes for our new venture here. More importantly, Washington’s win over Oregon in the PAC-12 title game shouldn’t take away from the irrefutable notion that the Ducks are a wagon, loaded with talent and coached by potentially the next star of the college football sidelines. While Ohio State makes a lot of sense as the favorite for the conference, Oregon is the team that could be the “next Georgia” as far as national dominance is concerned.
The Action Network has Oregon’s defense with a “TARP” (transfer and returning production) rating at +5, essentially the maximum you can have on that side of the ball. They’re hurt in that overall metric by a -1 offensive TARP, thanks to losing stars Bo Nix, Bucky Irving, and Troy Franklin, but in reality, do you think “Nike U” doesn’t have ample reinforcements at the skill positions? Dillon Gabriel - a player we thought enough of to bet to win the Heisman last year - brings 4000 total yards and a 30:6 TD-to-INT ratio to the Ducks’ scheme. If he misses any time, mega-athlete Dante Moore (formerly of UCLA) is the backup.
The key is the trenches though, where the offensive line is annually a strength, and the only time the Ducks were stymied last season was against the Huskies award-winning O-line. It’s easy to say that a PAC-12 team moving into the allegedly rough-and-tumble Big Ten could struggle to adapt, but that generalization doesn’t apply to Oregon in the Dan Lanning era.
Regular season win total
Indiana: Over 5.5 (-135, Bet365)
The Hoosiers should be able to count wins over Florida International, Western Illinois, Charlotte and Purdue, so they’ll need two more to cash this bet. To simplify it, they’ll need one of two road games at UCLA or Northwestern, and one of two home games that I have projected as a coin flip (Maryland and Washington) - or some combination.
You can’t have a less of a home-field advantage than the empty cavernous Rose Bowl or the 15,000-seat temporary stadium that Northwestern begins play in before their state-of-the-art facility is built and ready.
Between the lines, Indiana brings in Curt Cignetti, and a handful of hand-picked James Madison transfers, from a team that had the college football world up in arms when it seemed like they might not get a bowl bid last year. At quarterback, Kurtis Rourke - he of the Canadian Ohio Bobcat Rourkes - transfers in as a mercenary to get the new era of Hoosier football on the front foot. If the new energy in Bloomington makes us higher than the market, that suggests games with Washington and Maryland are that much more likely to be won.
Minnesota: Under 5.5 (-120, FanDuel)
Minnesota visits Rutgers on November 9th with the Golden Gophers last legit chance for a win, and Rutgers likely looking for a fifth win (with three games to play afterwards). The Scarlet Knights’ win total - Over 6.5 (+100) - was an option, but fading the Golden Gophers seems safer and we’ll know the result a little sooner.
Maybe Minnesota starts 3-0, thanks to a win over North Carolina in the opener, but even if they get two wins out of a Big Ten slate that includes Iowa (doubt it), at Michigan (nope), USC (nope), at UCLA (Ok…), Maryland (the Terps don’t think so) and at Illinois (as TD underdogs), they’ll need to win in Piscataway as possible 10-point underdogs.
From a macro-perspective, the Ski-U-Mah “Row the boat” era might be losing some steam as P.J. Fleck failed to follow Tanner Morgan with a viable quarterback, and last year’s metrics looked like that of a MAC team, with an EPA margin in the 120s.
UCLA: Under 4.5 (+120, Bet365)
The Bruins might (ahem) get a win to start the season at Hawaii, but it seems ominous that I’m unconvinced there’s another win on the schedule for UCLA’s new head coach, who in an even more concerning sign appears like this in a simple google search:
When Chip Kelly preferred to be the OC at OSU, whoever Dan Foster is might have been just as likely to get hired to lead the Bruins. I’ll skip the low-hanging fruit of his Big Ten media day appearance and look at a schedule where the best chances for a second, third, fourth and fifth win are Indiana (uh oh), Minnesota, at Washington, and Fresno State. At plus-money, I’ll fade the Bruins, who lost their best defenders and a head coach who was once considered an offensive mastermind.
Bonus: “Game of the Year” value
Oregon (PK) over Ohio State (Bet365)
If we think the Ducks are better than (or close to) the Buckeyes, and are willing to bet on them at a short number to win the conference, we might as well purchase a ticket on Oregon to win the regular season matchup in Eugene on October 12th. Unlike the Georgia-Alabama game, we’re not making this bet thinking that we’ll likely have the best of it relative to the closing line - above the key number of three. We’re securing the bet at pick’em, for fear that Oregon becomes a decent-sized favorite, since there isn’t a loss on the Ducks’ schedule leading into the game. Given Ryan Day’s struggles in big games, especially on the road, there might be a larger appetite to fade the Buckeyes in the lead-up than there is now.