CFB Betting: Instant reaction to postseason matchups

Comparing point spread projections to the early lines

Despite being one of the most fun, Bowl season’s the toughest betting vehicle to do written content for.

Matchups started to dribble out last week, and one such announcement featured Western Kentucky and James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. FanDuel opened JMU -3.5, I bet it, and the line quickly moved up to -7.5, before buyback dropped the line to -6.5, and then back up again. This all happened in 24 hours.

With seven games announced and lined by Saturday night, that leaves roughly almost 30 more capable of seeing a significant move within hours of getting announced. On top of that, the games aren’t posted all at once, which means waiting for the last line to post allows for the market to have their way with earlier games.

All this adds up to consternation for trying to get you the same early value that we’re hoping to extract.

Oh, and then there’s the matter of all the added elements of bowl season - motivation, coaching changes, and opt-outs.

The best we can do in the name of a “first look,” is provide an “if all things were equal” projection of what the line SHOULD be if it were a standard, regular season matchup.

Projected point spreads for Bowl Games and CFP First Round

Many of the games have already moved in the direction of the projection, but there are also several that are far off. Those are often hints that a significant change in how the team is constructed will be in play, like key opt outs (Colorado or Miami?) or a coaching change (Marshall?).

Throughout the postseason, we’ll break these games down further, trying to understand the inevitable moves and disparities to the projections above, and whether they need to be followed or faded. It will all start with a selection of the eight bowl games before the College Football Playoff’s first round.