CFB big game lookahead: Five early bets for Week 2’s biggest games

Home ‘dogs to hunt, the CyHawk, Huskers Rhule over Deion, and what’s wrong with Oregon?

It could happen at anytime, but it seems most plausible to go 0-12 in Week 1.

Between the lack of legitimate knowledge about what these college football teams are (assuming we ever really know) and bettors’ doomsday psychology of the possibility of starting the season in a deep hole, a big line-move away from a team we’ve bet on could trigger a panic attack . 

Luckily, with a 5-4 start in this space, along with two of three winners from the podcast on Friday night, we can exhale.

It’s worth acknowledging that winning and losing can come down to the difference in blindly backing Georgia in a big game or not. It’s something that doesn’t seem like rocket science, but with enough respected money coming in on Clemson to drop the line a few points, maybe it was? 

We don’t quite have follow-up clashes on the same level for this Saturday, there’s plenty worth betting when it comes to the games we’ll all be watching. 

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No. 4 Texas @ No. 9 Michigan (+7.5, 44.5)

What did we REALLY learn about these two teams in Week 1?

Texas destroyed Colorado State, who is not a deep team nor very good. It’s a result - as a near 5-TD favorite - that most largely expected for the Longhorns.  

Michigan’s offense struggled against Fresno State, as former walk-on Davis Warren ended up getting the starting nod over Alex Orji.

Proving Sherrone Moore is not an Orji guy.

The Wolverines’ offense was always looked at as a work-in-progress, and the likelihood that Michigan lives up to their ninth-place ranking in the AP poll is pretty unlikely. However, there’s no reason to believe Moore’s defense will be anything but the usual dominant stop unit it has been in the past, holding Mikey Keene - no slouch at QB - and Fresno State to just 10 points. 

Obviously, both teams get a far greater test this week, but befitting the “Game of the Week,” this game has been lined all summer in lookahead markets, with Texas a 3.5-point road favorite. Oddsmakers reopened the Longhorns at -6.5 on Sunday - an adjustment that seems like it’s taking Saturday’s results too literally - and now we’ve seen the line blow past the key number of seven. 

Ideally, Michigan would have done slightly better in the run game against the Bulldogs, but Kalel Mullings ran for 6.1 yards per carry, and Orji was dangerous during his snaps. They’ll test a remade Longhorns’ defensive interior on the ground, and the defense keeps the Wolverines close. 

Pick: Michigan (+7.5, -108 at Pinnacle)

Iowa State @ No. 25 Iowa (-2.5, 35.5)

We know how the CyHawk game is going to go, don’t we? 

If you said “ugly,” I’m right there with you, and so is the total of 35.5.

The line has toggled between Iowa -2.5 and -3, with betting interest on taking the Cyclones at the full field goal. With both teams easing into the season as they often do before the intrastate duel, my market rating line projection of slightly over three (-3.2) shouldn’t need any adjusting.

In Ames last year, Iowa’s defense held State’s rushing attack to 87 yards on 31 carries, and it was Rocco Becht’s worst game of the season (admittedly, just his second start). 

I want Iowa State as a big underdog against high-octane offense/sketchy defense teams, but Iowa’s defense is full of adults. Their starting depth chart has three juniors and the rest seniors/grad students. 

Points might be hard to come by, but even though it was Illinois State, 40 points has to be a good sign for the Hawkeyes‘ offense with new OC Tim Lester having mercifully taken over from Brian Ferentz. With the line under a field goal, I’ll back Iowa to keep their recent dominance, in a series they’ve lost just once in since 2014. 

Pick: Iowa (-2.5, -111 at Pinnacle)

No. 15 Tennessee @ No. 24 North Carolina State (+7.5, 60.5)

The flashy, high-octane team that lit up an overmatched outfit in Week 1 now goes on the road against a lower-ranked team who didn’t win by enough points for most people’s liking at home in Week 1.

No, we’re not redoing the Texas-Michigan preview.

It was Thursday night, with minimal other interesting games, so the updates from Raleigh about Western Carolina giving NC State a first-half scare probably felt like a bigger deal than it was.

In reality, the Wolfpack out-gained the Catamounts 521-361, so the offense - with new quarterback, longtime Coastal Carolina star, Grayson McCall - was totally fine, and we can chalk two first-quarter WCU touchdowns to a sluggish start defensively.

I’m a Dave Doeren guy, especially in the spot as a home underdog against a hyped team that hasn’t quite proven they’re worth the rating boost they’ve gotten after executing Chattanooga in a glorified scrimmage.  

Pick: North Carolina State (+7.5, Bet365)

Colorado @ Nebraska (-7, 57.5)

Weirdly, we might know the most about Colorado of any team in college football right now.

Shedeur Sanders is awesome, Travis Hunter’s ridiculous, and the rest is pretty, as the kids say, “Mid.” If Hunter didn’t make multiple insane plays last week, there’s a real possibility the Buffaloes lose at home to South Dakota State - who have the rep as a strong team - built on past FCS championships, but who I’m not sure are still on that level anymore.

It’s UTEP, but that was a comprehensive effort from Nebraska - the perfect way to get true freshman Dominic Raiola comfortable. The next best way? Facing Colorado’s defense, which still has a ton of holes.

History shows Matt Rhule’s college teams make a sizeable leap in Year 2, so while they’re unranked, they might be better than the market thinks. I have the line projected just shy of -10, so taking the favorite here is where I’m at, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Week 2 looks a lot more like 2023: Week 4 of and onwards for Colorado. Since Week 2 of last year featured former Husker Jeff Sims suffering from a rare condition of unforced turnover-itis that was the last straw for Big Red.

Pick: Nebraska (-7, DraftKings)

Boise State @ No. 3 Oregon (-19, 61)

The Oregon Ducks WE know would be -23 against Boise State, were it not for two things that hit the ticker while you were watching the big games this past Saturday:

1. Oregon was up three on Idaho in the fourth quarter

2. Ashton Jeanty is still running up and down Georgia Southern 

Jeanty ran for 267 of Boise’s 651 total yards, and the Broncos still didn’t cover, since they allowed 461 yards at Georgia Southern.

I’d be interested in a made-up odds market on that being the most yards the Eagles accrue in any game this season.

Meanwhile, Oregon out-gained Idaho 487-217 and won the turnover battle, so I don’t have an explanation for how that game was even close. For reference, the Ducks out-gained Portland State 729-200 last year, and won 81-7. They out-gained Hawaii 560-201 and won 55-10. 

Jeanty’s got his hands full this week against a team that should have Dan Lanning’s full-attention this week. Oregon should be good to hang 50 on the Broncos, and I’m hard-pressed to think Boise’s getting to 30. 

Pick: Oregon (-19, Bet365)