CFB Week 1: Best bets for the season’s kickoff weekend

Note: For bets on Thursday and Friday night’s games, check out the podcast for upwards of five bonus bets for Week 1’s first games. 

We don’t know anything.

Sure, the sharpest college football bettors in North America have had the entire offseason to research all 130+ FBS teams, getting as much inside information as they can on depth charts, scouting reports, and team chemistry. However, for every line move that went right in Week 0, like Georgia Tech going from +13.5 to +10 and the Yellow Jackets winning outright, there’s one that failed miserably, like SMU going from -18.5 to -27.5, only to barely beat Nevada.

It’s still not September yet, but we’re getting a healthy helping of a fall football Saturday, and I think I speak for everyone when I say, “Hell ya!”

To celebrate, we’ll stretch the “Saturday Seven” to nine bets that I’ve made for the weekend.

Georgia (-13, -115 at Pinnacle) over Clemson

It’s a neutral site game, but the Bulldogs are more than familiar with Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. While both fan contingents should be in full affect, if Kirby Smart circles you on the schedule, with time to prepare, as Dabo used to say, “you better BYOG - bring your own guts.”

The season sets up well for Clemson to overcome a loss in this game, have a strong ACC schedule, beat South Carolina in the finale and make the College Football Playoff, but even as my interpretation of the numbers shows value on them against Florida State, those same numbers think the fair price for this game is slightly higher than Georgia -14. 

Georgia State (+21, at Bet365) over Georgia Tech

As we talked about in THE WINDOW’s return podcast episode, Georgia Tech’s first two games were both lined and widely available to bet, but it didn’t make sense that they could be +13.5 against Florida State and -21 against Georgia State a week later. 

The Yellow Jackets beat the Seminoles outright, showing that they were undervalued in that first game, and therefore, more viably priced in this Week 1 matchup. However, their big win briefly pushed the line against the Panthers over three touchdowns, and winning by four scores just seven days after pulling off a big upset an ocean away is asking a lot. Georgia Tech doesn’t have to win by 23 points to keep their momentum going, so we’ll bet they won’t with another ACC game on deck next week against our next (hopefully) winning bet.

Syracuse (-17.5, at Bet365) over Ohio

Syracuse has a new head coach and a new quarterback that was talented enough to be deemed C.J. Stroud’s replacement. It didn’t work out for Kyle McCord in Columbus, but with renewed energy in Syracuse, a one-time top recruit should have a field day against a middle-of-the-pack MAC team that’s going into a season without a Rourke at the helm for the first time since 2016. 

Fran Brown, the new Orange head boss, comes over from Georgia, a team not known for taking it easy on inferior opponents. There’s enough talent in upstate New York, particularly at the skill positions, to overwhelm Ohio in the Carrier Dome. Brown’s going to make sure his first game as head coach sends the home crowd happy.

Penn State (-7.5, -108 at Pinnacle) over West Virginia

Covering a decent-sized number over a less-talented team is what Penn State does. 

West Virginia’s game for a scrap, but the Nittany Lions experienced the Mountaineers’ game plan in last year’s opener when Penn State won 38-15, going out of their way to cover the point spread late. They’ll be ready for 40+ carries from Garrett Greene and WVU’s tailbacks. 

Last year, the Nittany Lions refused to force the ball deep down the field with Drew Allar and it may have cost them against the upper echelon of the Big Ten. West Virginia should be ready to be tested deep all day, even if the game has long been decided.

Northwestern (-3) over Miami (OH)

Big Ten teams aren’t going to be thrown off by playing in Northwestern’s temporary band box, to the point where the Wildcats will be overvalued against more talented teams because of a lack of home-field advantage. However, against a MAC team, they should match up from a talent perspective. 

David Braun kept the head job in Evanston on the strength of a nice 5-1 finish to last season, against more talented teams, including a bowl win against Utah. While that finale wasn’t an artistic masterpiece, neither was Northwestern’s quarterback play at any point in the season.

Braun brought in Mike Wright, who, at the very least, can provide a dangerous threat on the ground against a defense not known for its speed. Braun gets this Wildcats’ team up for one of the few winnable games on their schedule and they overwhelm Miami via the run. 

Troy (-8, -112 at Pinnacle) over Nevada

Do we completely bail on our original hypothesis that Nevada’s a bad football team?

That would be a significant overreaction to the Wolf Pack jumping out to a lead against SMU in Week 0. Nevada threw for just 150 yards, while SMU was penalised 11 times for over 100 yards, as the Mustangs bided their time, came back, and won after a sleepy start. 

Now Nevada goes on the road to the defending champions of the Sun Belt. We’re dubious on how our guy Goose Crowder will hold up amidst the conference schedule, but Nevada’s the worst team on Troy’s schedule this season, as evidenced by this line being up over two touchdowns before last weekend’s game. Nevada didn’t do enough to warrant the rating upgrade they got (from 25/100 to 30+), making the Trojans the valuable bet.

Hawaii (+14.5, -120 at FanDuel) over UCLA

Should you be disappointed by Hawaii not covering a 40-point spread against Delaware State? I suppose if you were someone who was willing to lay that many points sight-unseen of either team. 

We’re soured by what’s happened to UCLA - Chip Kelly opting for a coordinator job versus riding out what seems to be a talent drain in Westwood. I’ve always had the Bruins lower than a win-total market rating would suggest. That means I’m looking to fade Deshaun “Dan” Foster early in the season, and even if you’re disappointed in Timmy Chang’s group, Hawaii getting a dress rehearsal before welcoming UCLA to the islands is a reason to think they’ll perform better than market expectations.

If not covering last week is the reason we’re getting a full two touchdowns - in a game where we’ll have the Rainbow Warriors as the big ‘dog in Saturday morning’s CFB RUMP on Twitter (@mrussauthentic) - then I’m glad they were sleep-walking against a bad FCS opponent.

Notre Dame (+3, -105 at Pinnacle) over Texas A&M

Here’s how you measure Notre Dame, without any knowledge of their personnel, or their strategy to slow the Aggies: 

Look at their schedule and if you think it’s even an average FBS schedule, a team with a 10-win expectation should be lined tighter to Texas A&M than a full 3-point favorite, unless College Station is worth more home-field advantage than what is traditionally allocated. 

This game has been lined at around pick’em for much of the summer, so maybe sharp bettors are seeing the same thing I am in thinking Texas A&M might have a chance to win the SEC, drifting the Aggies out to a 3-point favorite here, even though this game is meaningless in that quest. Of course, key injury to Notre Dame’s offensive line might be dropping their rating as well. Either way, in a high-profile season opener, I’m happy to take Notre Dame getting a full field goal. 

LSU (-4, -109 at Pinnacle) over USC

It’s a Sunday night in Vegas and you’re hoping to make back what you lost. 

LSU and USC - they’re just like us! 

Two teams who have to move on from Heisman-winning quarterbacks square off with hopes of getting a new era (such as eras are in college football these days) off to a rousing start. 

We’re basing this pick off of two working hypotheses:

1. Miller Moss racked up six touchdowns in USC’s bowl game and has dangerous weapons around him, but that was just one game after a handful of reps in blowouts, all against an inferior opponents. Compare that to Garrett Nussmeier’s 395 yards in LSU’s bowl game, and almost 300 yards against Georgia in the SEC title game two years ago, and the Tigers can be confident in who’s taking the reins. Meanwhile, USC plucked Jayden Maieava from UNLV, just in case Moss isn’t capable and freshman Dylan Gebbia isn’t ready, how convinced are they in their incumbent?

2. Both defenses have been horrendous in recent years. The difference though, is LSU’s track record of cycling talent through Baton Rouge and already having a potential star in Harold Perkins. Compare that to Lincoln Riley’s inability to field a competitive defense going back to his days at Oklahoma. 

In a week where we’re making barely-educated guesses, mine is that USC’s defense will be more vulnerable to Nussmeier than LSU’s to Moss, to a degree larger than what’s represented by four points on a neutral field.