CFB Week 10 betting: Big game lookahead
A pair of coaches look to get over the hump in State College
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
By rule, once college football reaches its 10th week, and the first Saturday of November, we have to wonder aloud where the time went.
In THIS Week 10, we can also where the underdogs went in Week 9 as…
…wait, hold on…
*puts finger to ear*
I’m being told Navy just turned the ball over again with another unforced fumble against Notre Dame.
I could have done the same bit about SOFT personal foul flags against UNLV, or Oregon touchdowns over Illinois, or Drew Pyne interceptions (after we got +17 with Missouri AND Brady Cook starting).
At least Texas A&M won (and covered) a critical game for our hopes that the Aggies making the SEC title game. They had the benefit of home-field advantage against LSU - one of the reasons we liked Texas A&M before the season - but now they have a hostile environment to deal with this week.
A home crowd is among the top reasons that another underdog is hopeful for a season-setting win in the biggest (noon) game of the week.
No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 3 Penn State (+3.5, 47)
Let’s start where we often do - even if it’s not explicit each time - by figuring out how the point spread was made.
Before the season, you had to pay -160 or higher to take the over on 10.5 wins for Ohio State. Penn State was lined at 10.5 as well, but you got paid +140 to take the over. That is a marginal difference that we can translate to a team rating of 93/100 for the Buckeyes and 87/100 for the Nittany Lions. Without getting into the math to extrapolate that into a point spread, if you give Penn State the applicable home-field advantage, you get a 50/50 game with a projected point spread of close to pick’em.
So, why are the Buckeyes favored by over a field goal?
For me, it’s the hesitancy to trust James Franklin in a big game - like against Michigan or Ohio State. Situations where Penn State has not succeeded under his tenure, losing to those powers by 8, 9, 13, 24, 9, and 4 points since the COVID season in 2020.
Other than beating Franklin three times, Ryan Day’s Buckeyes haven’t exactly crushed it in big games since taking making the National Championship in the 2020 season. They’re 0-3 to Michigan, 0-2 to Oregon, and lost a close game to Georgia in the 2022 CFP semi-final. Their best win in a showdown game came at Notre Dame by a field goal. That wouldn’t be enough to cover this number.
Neither team comes into this game playing particularly well. Ohio State barely got by Nebraska last week, with just 11 first downs. The left side of the offensive line has been ravaged by injuries. Coming out of the bye after losing at Oregon, the Buckeyes fell short of expectations because they couldn’t run, gaining just 64 yards on 31 attempts.
The Nittany Lions can stop the run, and while there’s concern about Drew Allar’s availability, if he’s unable to play, offensive coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki can use Beau Pribula’s mobility to move the chains when they have the ball. Kotelnicki is the new addition to the equation for Penn State this season. He (and Allar or Pribula) shouldn’t be judged by the inability of Penn State predecessors to come through in a big game.
The Nittany Lions succeeded against in-game adversity in a pair of warmups for this game - at USC and at Wisconsin - and should be able to get into the Buckeyes’ backfield enough to disrupt what Ohio State wants to do on the ground.
In a game that should be lined closer to a pick’em, we’ll take over a field goal in a critical matchup where both coaches need to prove they can get over the hump.
Pick: Penn State (+3.5, -115 at DraftKings)
Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia (-16, 52.5)
Many will say that this isn’t a big game, given the state of Florida football, but I’ll be damned if something widely referred to as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” isn’t part of this week’s column.
We’ve rode for Florida in this space, even as the Gators have sent their fans into despair in a Denny’s parking lot. Backing them against UCF and Tennessee was profitable, and handling Kentucky was impressive, but this is a big step up in weight class.
If I told you before the season that Georgia would go 6-6 against the spread, but they got up for the opener against Clemson, showdowns with Alabama and Texas, plus the rivalry game with Florida, wouldn’t that be completely believable?
The Bulldogs showed up late in Tuscaloosa, but losing that game might have angered them, as the Crimson Tide made Georgia bleed their own blood.
In all three big games, eventually Georgia’s defense became a problem for Cade Klubnik, Jalen Milroe, and Quinn Ewers. With Graham Mertz out for the season, freshman quarterback project, DJ Lagway, is tasked with scoring enough to keep up with Georgia. Best of luck, if we get the same Dawgs’ defense we saw in Austin before the bye week.
The Bulldogs face a Gators’ pass defense that is 79th in EPA/Play against opponents’ dropbacks. This game has had virtually the same score the last two years (43-20 and 42-20) with Florida unable to slow Georgia’s run game. With Trevor Etienne slowly taking the role as primary tailback, the Bulldogs’ offense might be ready to peak down this final stretch.
Pick: Georgia (-16, Bet365)
No. 10 Texas A&M @ South Carolina (+2.5, 44.5)
I’m scared.
This is a tough follow-up spot for Texas A&M, after pulling last Saturday night’s game out of the fire when Mike Elko turned to Marcel Reed just in the nick of time, as one intrepid Aggies’ SEC Championship ticket holder requested, six minutes before it happened:
The line opened at an inflated South Carolina +3.5, and was quickly bet down across the key number of +3. TAMU -2.5 is the fair line based on how each team was rated before their previous game. However, when you factor the spot - going from a dramatic home win to the road against the Gamecocks off their bye week, there’s more than enough reason to think South Carolina will not just keep this game close but win outright.
Holding Texas A&M tickets to win the SEC at +1700 and +2500 means that we’d hope they can win this game, but if we didn’t have those positions, I’d be all about this spot for the Cocks.
The Aggies can lose this game, but then beat Auburn and Texas (in College Station) to secure their spot in Atlanta, so you can chalk this up as something of a hedge if you hold the aforementioned Aggies ticket. If not, South Carolina is the side anyway.
Pick: South Carolina (Wait to see if +3 comes back, but bet +2.5 at kickoff if not)
Louisville @ No. 11 Clemson (-10.5, 61)
If you’ve been “here” at THE WINDOW for any length of time, you’re aware of at least one of two things that have developed over the course of the season:
A belief that Louisville is overrated in the market and has not been corrected despite five straight non-covers after a fluky cover over Georgia Tech
Since Georgia pulled away in the second half of the season opener in Atlanta, Clemson’s dominated every opponent, and may be a dark-horse national title contender
So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I think this line is too short, and the Tigers should be -14.
The Tigers will have a much tougher task when they go to Blacksburg next week, but they should win this one by two or more scores.
Pick: Clemson (-10.5)
No. 18 Pittsburgh @ No. 20 SMU (-7.5, 59)
We backed Duke at home against SMU last week (via the podcast), citing the Mustangs’ rating, which seemed a little high, making them -12 on the road.
How did SMU get up to an estimated market rating of 75/100?
After losing to BYU, SMU beat TCU 66-42 thanks to the Horned Frogs racking up 14 penalties for 135 yards, and despite being out-gained 480-375. They followed that with wins over Florida State (cool), Louisville (have I mentioned I don’t think much of the Cardinals this year?), and Stanford (sweet).
I guess winning in Durham despite turning the ball over six times is something to be applauded, but it’s also possible the Mustangs are what they were expected to be - a 9-win team that wins more close games than they lose. However, they’re asked to beat Pittsburgh convincingly here.
We’re supposed to be worried about Panthers’ star quarterback Eli Holstein’s availability, but I won’t be having a cow, man. Pitt head coach, Pat Narduzzi, didn’t seem all that concerned last Thursday, having taken Holstein out for precautionary reasons against Syracuse, and he may be playing up the injury, just to mess with another undefeated ACC team.
Being prone to turnovers isn’t a good characteristic against a team that just had five interceptions (returning three for touchdowns). Either team would be thrilled to keep their undefeated conference season going, so with a line set at over a touchdown, we’ll bet this game comes down to the final possession.
Pick: Pittsburgh (+7.5)
For more of a breakdown of the college football betting markets, including bets for games during the week, check out THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast.