CFB Week 10 betting: The “Saturday 7”
Four ‘dogs and a trio of undervalued favorites against the spread
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Wisconsin was, in fact, in a close (14-13) game when it was time to “Jump Around” in Madison, but that wasn’t enough to cover.
New Mexico’s offense went drier than its desert terrain.
Those ATS underdog losses were unforeseen, but a trio of straight-up whiffs punctuated the worst week for the (allegedly) best bets on the board.
With a bounce-back in order, and more than a few good options (the Podcast plays are likely to be plentiful) this week, let’s go value-hunting for Week 10.
Northwestern @ Purdue (-1, 45)
For 30 minutes, Purdue lived like kings.
Down 24-3 at halftime to Illinois, the Boilermakers scored 40 points in the second half. Second-string quarterback Ryan Browne helped the Purdue run-game to accumulate 238 rush yards, and there was hope in West Lafayette.
A week later, they went right back to failure, Browne could barely complete a pass (9-of-19) against Oregon, and that 50-49 loss is now a blip between 52-6 and 35-0 losses. That’s more the Boilermakers’ speed this season, where it hasn’t mattered whether they are on the road or in a near-empty Ross-Ade Stadium.
Northwestern hasn’t had much more success in the standings, but they’ve been more competitive, with a win at Maryland and playing Indiana and Duke closely. The Wildcats’ defense is middle-of-the-pack defensively at 56th in EPA/Play, while Purdue is 125th - the worst Power-4 team by quite the margin.
Pick: Northwestern (+1)
No. 19 Ole Miss @ Arkansas (+8, 53.5)
For a team with an offensive play-calling genius and all the talent money can buy, Ole Miss sure doesn’t score all that much.
Since cruising through their soft non-conference schedule, the Rebels haven’t topped 27 points in any of their four SEC games. Which makes you wonder, just how misleading is an EPA/Play ranking of seventh nationally?
Arkansas can score too, with Bobby Petrino finally tapping into the potential that Taylen Greene and Ja’Quindon Jackson have to cause problems for opposing defenses out of the Hogs’ backfield.
Both teams are 2-2 in SEC play, with losses to LSU, so preseason ratings of Ole Miss as a national title contender and the expectation that the Razorbacks were going to be amongst the bottom of the conference, both seem to be misgauged. With each side drifting towards the deep-fried southern middle of the league, getting a potentially explosive home side as an underdog of more than a touchdown is worth a bet.
Pick: Arkansas (+8, -115 at Pinnacle)
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (+4, 53.5)
Maybe I’ve seen something like it and just forgot, but in the moment, “I’ve never seen anything like this,” seemed like the only appropriate reaction to Kyle McCord’s five interceptions, three pick-6s, and 31 total points off of seven first-half Syracuse turnovers at Pittsburgh last Thursday.
That kind of fluky result (where at least two of the interceptions came off really bad-luck bounces) didn’t give us a legitimate data point to use for Cuse going forward. We can only look at how the betting market’s treating the Orange and Hokies lately.
Virginia Tech’s last three games have been wins against Stanford’s backup quarterback, Boston College on a traditionally intense Thursday night in Blacksburg, and Georgia Tech’s backup quarterback. These victories have sent their rating back to where it was before the season - one that started with a loss at Vanderbilt.
Syracuse hasn’t played at home in a month, and last week’s loss seems to have come with a market downgrade, even though the Orange won their previous two road tests at North Carolina State and a very good UNLV team in Vegas.
Even putting both sides back to their preseason rating, I still only get to Tech -2, so there’s plenty of value with the line on the other side of -3, as we hope McCord’s weird night in Pittsburgh doesn’t carry over to a Dome disaster.
Pick: Syracuse (+4)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (+3, 60.5)
In the Sun Belt, just when you think you have the answers, they change the questions.
Ok, I don’t know who the “they” are that’s doing all the quizzing, but I do know that when a team gets too high in the Group-of-5 conferences - where there isn’t the same talent disparity as there can be between the top and bottom of the SEC or Big Ten - it’s time to sell.
Old Dominion has three straight wins, and their rating has reflected it, and then some. Meanwhile, App State - the preseason favorite in the Sun Belt - seemed to have their season falling apart after dropping their first three conference games, but a bye week came at the right time and they got back in the win column against Georgia State last week. They didn’t cover (-7.5, by the hook), so a new super-low rating for the Mountaineers carries over to this game, making them a home underdog by a full field goal against they might be better than.
We’ll bet that App State, with Bowl hopes still alive, can tilt the power axis of the Sun Belt back towards the preseason expectations by beating the Monarchs, who were projected to finish closer to the bottom than the top spot they currently occupy.
Pick: Appalachian State (+3, -115 at DraftKings)
UCLA @ Nebraska (-6.5, 39.5)
The Cornhuskers cleaned up their act after getting waxed in Bloomington and almost stunned Ohio State last week. Now they get to come back home to Lincoln and get a team that’s a drop in weight class from the Hoosiers and Buckeyes.
Ethan Garbers had a career game against Rutgers, going 32/38 for 383 yards and five total touchdowns before UCLA’s bye, which went against the popular theory that Big Ten teams travelling across country are doomed. However, it’s entirely possible that Rutgers is just bad, particularly on defense, having allowed 42 points to both USC and Wisconsin, around their loss to the Bruins.
Rutgers is 80th in defensive EPA/Play, which would have felt like sweet relief to UCLA, having just played Minnesota, Penn State, Oregon, LSU, and Indiana. However, the schedule toughens back up - Big Ten-style - as the Bruins face a Nebraska defense (21st) that held Ohio State to just 11 first downs.
The Bruins’ 74th-ranked EPA/Play defense against opponent dropbacks suggests things should get easier for Dylan Raiola, allowing Nebraska to not just take a lead but stretch it.
Pick: Nebraska (-6.5, -115 at Bet365)
Wisconsin @ Iowa (-3, 41)
We gave the Badgers a shot to prove they could compete with a team at the top of the conference, and for three quarters they hung in there with Penn State. But that was a game where the underdog was tasked with bringing their best to try to get a win. Now they’re following that all-out effort with a trip to Iowa City, against a Hawkeyes team that thrives on turning the opponent over and taking advantage of mistakes? Yikes.
The Hawkeyes have annihilated their last two opponents at home, and while Wisconsin’s better than Washington and Northwestern, we’re not asking Iowa to win by 20+. In a rare night game, looking for Iowa’s usual scoring-capable defense and special teams to be a factor, the same way Penn State’s was against Braedyn Locke last Saturday night.
Pick: Iowa (-3, Bet365)
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama (-6, 60)
You can tell it’s November, with a trio of favorites in the column this week. The longer the season goes, the more certainty we have about a team being notably better than their opponent. Even if the records don’t look that way.
Georgia Southern has the same Sun Belt record as South Alabama, but then you see their conference point differential:
Georgia Southern: 109-105
South Alabama: 135-58
That’s due to the Eagles going on the road and getting blown out 47-19 last week at Old Dominion, a team that’s never been rated as good as South Alabama.
The Jaguars’ lone conference loss came at Arkansas State, where the Red Wolves kicked a game-winning field goal with 10 seconds left, in a game where South Alabama saw two long first-half drives end on an interception and turnover on downs, both in the Arkansas State red zone.
The Jags are one or two plays away from being undefeated in the Sun Belt and likely being more than a touchdown favorite here.