CFB Week 11 betting: Big game lookahead
Three big "playoff before the playoff" matchups
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
The big games in college football are the most fun. Short of the Super Bowl, there’s an unmatched buildup in all of sports, since, on a weekly basis multiple huge-scale pregame shows might come to town, and the stakes seem unfathomably high. Big game college football is awesome.
The games are decidedly less enjoyable when the team you’ve bet on doesn’t win or cover.
Penn State had every opportunity to score a late touchdown to tie Ohio State last Saturday. Four unimaginative (if not downright bad) short-yardage play-calls later - that didn’t involve the Nittany Lions’ best player Tyler Warren - and they turned the ball over on downs. Ohio State ran the clock out, won and covered, instead of their final drive potentially resulting in a Buckeyes’ game-winning field goal. For those of us betting Penn State early in the week when the line was +3.5, that would have been a fine reward for getting the best of a point spread that closed at +3.
It’s easier to stomach SMU having far better talent than Pittsburgh as a bad bet (even if it similarly closed at a shorter price), and you tip your cap to the maximum effort that Florida played with (still losing by two scores) at the WLOCT.
Yes, the College Football Playoff was expanded to 12 teams - making Tuesday’s rankings show more interesting - but what we’re seeing is that in the first season of the new-look system, November still brings quasi-playoff games before the real thing in December.
No. 2 Georgia @ No. 16 Ole Miss (+2.5, 54.5)
The first oddsmakers willing to put a line up on Saturday night made Georgia 3.5-point favorites on the road at Oxford.
My fair price on the game, based on lines leading up to this game, is Georgia -2.5, so whether it’s a betting market that agrees with that, or the Bulldogs failing to cover on the same day when the Rebels’ offense finally broke loose, the line quickly crossed the key number.
Carson Beck’s recent penchant for throwing interceptions and Jaxson Dart’s big statistical game will have the pundits buzzing about the Rebels’ chances to win on a day when The Grove will be at its apex. However, Georgia’s excellence has rarely come with the necessity of perfect quarterback play. Beck, facing the second-best defense by EPA/Play on opponents’ dropbacks, threw three interceptions and for just 175 yards in Austin, and the Dawgs beat Texas 30-15. Ole Miss is good, but at 21st nationally in defensive dropback EPA/Play, throwing should come a little easier, but Beck’s turnovers have got to stop.
Instead of being dominant offensively at Texas, Georgia tormented play-calling genius Steve Sarkisian through the eyes of a veteran college quarterback. Why can’t they do that again to Lane Kiffin and Dart?
The two games have little to do with each other, but Georgia-Ole Miss looks a lot like Ohio State-Penn State to me. Both Penn State and Ole Miss are annual bullies, beating up on teams less talented than them, taking every opportunity they can to cover a big point spread for their backers, even at the expense of the antiquated concept of sportsmanship.
The home side CAN win (and I might also have liked Ole Miss at +3.5) but while the college football landscape feels like it’s changing, I can’t shake the feeling that while Ole Miss was working on cool plays to blow out teams, Georgia spent that time preparing for the games that matter most, seeking out an opponents’ weakness and praying on that repeatedly.
The winner stays in the mix for the SEC Championship, and just about secures a spot in the CFP, and the loser becomes vulnerable to being left out (Georgia) or clinches tickets on the “No” to make the playoffs (Ole Miss). With stakes that high, Kirby Smart’s crew’s always a good bet.
Pick: Georgia (-2.5, at FanDuel)
No. 21 Colorado @ Texas Tech (+3.5, 62.5)
As part of the campaign, on the first Saturday in November, Travis Hunter rolled into State College, Pennsylvania, on his bye week, shaking hands and kissing babies, seemingly appealing for Heisman Trophy votes.
If that’s what he wants to do with his time, and it’s that important to Deion Sanders and the University of Colorado, “Cool.”
It’s a microcosm of this game though.
The Buffaloes are back to being ranked for the first time since the very first weeks of 2023, as they’ve shown - with a 4-1 Big 12 record - that they’re much improved from last year.
With that national ranking has come a change in rating as well, though. Using our estimated market rating system, we know that Colorado finished last season rated as a below-average college football team, at 45/100. With an offseason to address as much as they could to build around Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, they started this season at 60/100. An expected improvement was already built in.
Since losing at home to Kansas State, the Buffs have won at Arizona and at Cincinnati. If you don’t apply a downgrade to Texas Tech’s preseason rating (and they just knocked off Iowa State in Ames and are 4-2 in the Big 12, so why would you?), a 3.5-point spread in favor of the road team here implies Colorado’s rating is up to 75/100.
Road wins at UCF and Arizona (combined 3-9 in the conference) aren’t the accomplishments they might have looked to be at the time. With a good team as the home underdog, in what amounts to a Big 12 quarterfinal, we’ll have to fade the latest round of hype, regardless of how the Heisman campaign is going.
Pick: Texas Tech (+3.5, at Bet365)
No. 11 Alabama @ No. 14 LSU (+3, 58.5)
I have LSU as a 1.5-point favorite in Baton Rouge.
I doubt this line being a full field goal the other way is due to left guard Garret Dellinger’s injury, since the Tigers’ offensive line is a strength.
Maybe the market doesn’t like LSU’s loss at Texas A&M, but the Tigers were doing just fine in College Station until one bad decision by Garrett Nussmeier. Up 17-7, the LSU QB was baited into an interception and the Aggies turned to Marcel Reed at quarterback, and the A&M offense exploded.
LSU wasn’t ready for the drastically different style that Reed brought to the table, compared to Conner Weigman, and that’s something of a coaching red flag, but it also provides good coaching tape for Jalen Milroe’s incoming visit to Death Valley. Plus, the Tigers already saw Milroe last year. With a bye week to prepare for a dual-threat quarterback, there should be no surprises this time around.
Maybe this line is out to -3 because the market’s buying back into Alabama, however that would be quite the show of faith off of one game that didn’t provide much of a data point.
The Crimson Tide had a quartet of sketchy games - almost blowing the Georgia game, losing to Vanderbilt, barely beating South Carolina, and losing to Tennessee - but they did beat Missouri 34-0 last time out. Those Tigers were a shell of their former selves though, as Brady Cook tried to play on a bum leg, but couldn’t be productive. Then Drew Pyne came in and started handing out turnovers like he’s in Columbia on a baking scholarship.
There isn’t enough to impress me from Alabama that would stop me from taking the field goal with a home underdog in Death Valley here, in what’s truly a CFP elimination game.
Pick: LSU (+3, -115 at Bet365)
For more of a breakdown of the college football betting markets, including bets for games during the week and a look at the Heisman Trophy market, check out THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast.