CFB Week 11 betting: The “Saturday 7”

A quartet of bets for the Big 12, including a live ‘dog in the “Holy War”

Nov 08, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

After a dip in results the last two weeks, we got back into profitability in Week 10, but, if you haven’t had enough talk of sample size, cohorts, and percentages after Tuesday night, the “last cuts” - games that are given out on THE WINDOW podcast on Friday’s show are almost can’t-miss. It’s ALL just short-term variance, but if you’re the type of person that sees a game result and says, “I should have bet that! The ones I don’t bet always win!”, putting those games in audio form versus the black and white of this column somewhat supports that non-scientific theory.

As we look ahead to Week 11, let’s try to make the best bets the best results as well… as if we weren’t already trying to do that.

West Virginia @ Cincinnati (-4.5, 56.5)

The Bearcats opened -2.5 and I had no problem with that line. Apparently, the betting market did, as Cincinnati had been pushed out to 5-point favorites against West Virginia. That, I have a problem with.

Maybe bettors saw that the Mountaineers were 5.5-point underdogs at Arizona two weeks ago, and Cincinnati is better than the Wildcats, ipso facto, there’s value on the Bearcats. Except West Virginia ran for 200+ yards, didn’t turn the ball over, and won in Tucson.

We don’t need the Mountaineers to win this game outright (at least in this space), but if they’re being downgraded because they’ve turned to the backup quarterback, redshirt sophomore Nico Marchiol, that’s an overreaction to an offense that’s always been more about the run game.

The Bearcats struggle against the run, allowing 157.4 yards per game despite a schedule heavy on pass-first teams. Meanwhile, if Brendan Sorsby can’t take advantage of a suspect secondary, maybe the Mountaineers do win this game outright.

Pick: West Virginia (+4.5, -105 at FanDuel)

No. 23 Clemson @ Virginia Tech (+6.5, 53)

As is customary in college football, we weren’t aware of Virginia Tech’s injury issues - starting quarterback Kyron Drones and star tailback Bhayshul Tuten - when we wrote about backing Syracuse last week, so that was a bonus at kickoff. But if we’re being honest, 455 total yards for the Hokies without those players was pretty impressive, and they probably deserved better on the road than a 7-point loss. This week? Head coach Brent Pry is optimistic, saying both have “a good chance to play” this Saturday.

More transparency - even when I wasn’t worried about Clemson’s play, I had this game circled as a spot for the underdog. I have this game lined far closer to pick’em before even factoring how bad the Tigers looked against Louisville when they suffered a loss that likely torpedoed all their goals for the season.

Clemson’s still a target for an ACC rival that was rated pretty similarly before the season, and has the talent to compete, if not win outright if they get their best players back in Blacksburg.

Pick: Virginia Tech (+6.5, Bet365)

No. 25 Army @ North Texas (+4, 63.5)

Army finally didn’t cover last week, even as the line plunged before the game with the news that their quarterback, Bryson Daily was out with an undisclosed injury. They’re hoping he practices by the end of this week, and if you’re looking to get secret information out of the Army, I mean, come on.

While a bet on the Mean Green here would benefit from Daily not playing, North Texas is no stranger to this space because of their offense. Losing to Tulane and Memphis is nothing to be ashamed of, especially as they racked up 525 yards and 653 yards in out-gaining both the Green Wave and the Tigers. The undefeated Black Knights have been impressive, but they haven’t seen anything close to this kind of passing game. Meanwhile, the Mean Green come into this game with a bye week to prepare for what Army does on offense. North Texas’s defense has never been good, but they can go score-for-score with Daily, and can win this outright if he’s unable to go.

Pick: North Texas (+4, DraftKings)

No. 17 Iowa State @ Kansas (+3, 50.5)

Like Clemson, Iowa State let a home game slip last week, where they were a significant favorite, but unlike the Tigers, the Cyclones played pretty well (in poor weather conditions). So I’m not looking to throw cold water on Iowa State’s rating that had gotten a little too high.

Kansas lost close in the Sunflower State rivalry game with Kansas State, making the postseason increasingly unlikely for a team that’s struggled to generate offense a season after losing their star offensive coordinator to Penn State. A bye week might help a Kansas team that’s better than their record, but it also might come with the stark reality that they need to sweep the rest of the season just to be Bowl-eligible.

Meanwhile, Iowa State got beat in the last seconds by Texas Tech, but when the sun finally shone in Ames, they should have realized that a Big 12 title and a spot in the College Football Playoff are well within reach with four winnable games remaining in November, starting with a revenge spot where they were lined under a field goal, but are starting to drift towards -3 - a number still good enough to bet.

Pick: Iowa State (-2.5, -120 at FanDuel)

Central Florida @ Arizona State (-3, 55.5)

UCF finally won a game. Since coming back from 20 points down to TCU, the Knights lost five straight and went through three quarterbacks, finally landing on Dylan Rizk, who went 20-for-25 and three touchdowns at home against Arizona.

With all due respect to the chemistry major, who one Orlando-area newspaper referred to as a “bench-warmer,” the Wildcats haven’t won a game in September, showing little interest in competing defensively.

Up the road in Tempe, Arizona State was at maximum vibes on Friday, October 11th, when they beat then-ranked Utah. Only starting quarterback Sam Leavitt got hurt, and he missed the Sun Devils’ trip to Cincinnati and Jeff Sims had to play. Ask anyone from Nebraska what playing Sims does to your chances of winning, and you won’t likely hold the loss to the Bearcats against ASU. A bye week later, and Leavitt was back and so were the vibes as the Sun Devils went to Stillwater and crushed Oklahoma State. Back home, and only needing to cover a field goal in a game I have lined closer to a touchdown, Arizona State’s road environment may come as a shock to Rizk’s system.

Pick: Arizona State (-2.5, -115 at Bet365)

UNLV @ Hawaii (+13.5, 49.5)

Don’t look now, but Hawaii’s playing some pretty good ball.

We were hoping the Warriors might be competitive this season back when they hosted UCLA on the final day of August, when they covered in a 3-point loss. Trips to the mainland were unsuccessful though, as they lost big at Sam Houston State, small at San Diego State, and big at Washington State.

That last loss, to a pretty good (7-1) Cougars team, came after a 28-7 loss to a really good Boise State team (the only squad to beat Wazzu), and the market sold Hawaii harder than a real estate “reality” show. Since getting back into their own weight class, Hawaii’s pounded Nevada at home, and got their first road win of the season at Fresno State.

Who knows how UNLV will react to their close loss to Boise two weeks ago, but taking more than two weeks off, then going to Hawaii doesn’t scream “peak performance.” Especially with their chances of a Mountain West title highly diminished.

The Rebels might win, but winning by two full touchdowns is asking a lot against a team who is probably better than their five losses, or reputation, suggests.

Pick: Hawaii (+13, DraftKings)

No. 9 BYU @ Utah (+3, 40.5)

BYU got ranked ninth in Tuesday’s first glimpse at what the College Football Playoff might look like, and while it’s well-deserved given they haven’t lost, if you think the Cougars are a top-10 team in the country, I’ve got some magic beans you might be interested in.

That may be harsh, and maybe it’s not relevant because Utah’s season has fallen apart with four straight losses, but Kyle Whittingham’s Utes have two things to play for the rest of the season:

Win six games to qualify for a bowl
Ruin their in-state rival’s season in the “Holy War”

With a bye week to steady themselves and get Isaac Wilson more focused practice reps for their biggest home game of the season, we’ll back Utah to have their best effort and at least stay close to BYU who’ve escaped a few games already.