CFB Week 12 betting: Big game lookahead
Conference races heat up, and the Vols look for a season-defining upset in Athens
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
The all-too-short season - and small sample size - means there’s not enough time to recover from a bad string of results, which means we’re resigned to a losing season in trying to figure out the biggest games of the week in college football. Last season’s record over at theScore was 23-18-1, so maybe this year’s under .500 record is just mathematical variance swinging back towards an expected 50% hit rate, given that we’re forcing ourselves to pick a side on the high-leverage games we’re most excited to watch.
This week, for our penultimate “Big Game” column, the headliners are limited, as the schedule takes a dip for two weeks before Thanksgiving’s regular-season finale buffet - where it will be less about big games, and all about finding value on Friday AND Saturday.
No. 25 Tulane @ Navy (+7, 54.5)
The first of what acts as a quasi-semifinal in the American Athletic Conference, Tulane gets their first look at anyone decent in the league. Army, East Carolina, Memphis, and Navy make up the top-5 in the standings, but the first two don’t show up on the Green Wave’s schedule, and the latter two haven’t yet.
In Tulane’s two “toughest” conference games, it was out-gained by North Texas and Rice, but winning games boosts your rating in the market, and the Green Wave were impressive in non-conference losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma, so perception is high.
Navy’s seen their own boost in market rating from before the season as well, but came back down to earth with a disappointing showing against Notre Dame, which may have carried over to loss on the road at Rice the following week.
The Midshipmen righted the ship (as they’re trained to do, presumably) by blowing out South Florida and now return home for the first time since before that Notre Dame loss.
Due to scheduling quirks (and Army not joining the AAC until this year), Tulane doesn’t have any recent experience facing the triple-option or the modified version Navy is now running. In a game I have lined at Tulane -4, there’s some value in betting Navy to give the Green Wave all they can handle.
Pick: Navy (+7)
Arizona State @ No. 16 Kansas State (-9.5, 50)
Part of last week’s handicap on Arizona State to win and cover over UCF factored in vibes in Tempe, but it also hoped that one-time fourth-string Knights’ quarterback Dylan Rizk would have less success than in his debut at home. So, when the game turned in five seconds - ASU touchdown, UCF botched touchback leaving them on 1-yard line, and Rizk pick-6 - it felt like that came to fruition. That was the lone turnover in a game the Sun Devils were out-gained 406-260.
The scenario is considerably different this week, as the Sun Devils go from the still-warm desert evening to the increasingly chilly fall conditions of Manhattan, Kansas. Unlike the Knights, who came into Tempe riding high, the Wildcats have been stewing over getting upset at Houston two weeks ago, and should look at this game as their chance to get back into the Big 12 race, while eliminating a competitor.
Even with a considerable season-long upgrade for Arizona State’s surprisingly good year, and a downgrade in rating for Kansas State, I still have the Wildcats favored by more than 10 points
They would have been close to 3-TD favorites before the season.
The Sun Devils may get star tailback Cam Skattebo back, so it’s likely worth waiting to see if he’s ruled in, as the spread may drop as a result. However, with a shoulder injury, in the cold, who knows if he’ll be effective enough to turn a game that sets up to be a convincing win for the home side.
Pick: Kansas State (wait to see if Skattebo plays and the line falls to -7, bet -9.5 or better before kickoff)
No. 7 Tennessee @ No. 12 Georgia (-10, 48.5)
The premise of this column is two-fold:
Try to make a bet early in the week that beats the closing line.
Unfortunately, we have a better record at getting the best of the number than getting the best of the play.
Pick a side, so that we have a rooting interest in one team or the other.
Georgia’s loss last week - snapping a multi-season winning streak to teams not named Alabama - clinched the under on their regular-season win total of 10.5. So, there’s nothing to root for there from a bet in our SEC season preview back in August. However, we did add Tennessee national title futures at 25-1 back in September (via the podcast). The Vols’ value took a hit when they got toppled at Arkansas, but not all was lost. Tennessee gets a second-chance to submit their application for the College Football Playoff, but they have to do so as 10-point underdogs.
That line might seem high, but Georgia hasn’t slipped far in the market ratings after losing to Ole Miss, going from the high-90s to 91/100. Which is the determining factor on whether this spread is too high or too low.
If the Dawgs’ loss in Oxford (along with Carson Beck’s turnover issues, a mediocre running game, and a somewhat fallible defense), means Georgia is just “good” instead of “great,” then a rating on the level of the other 2-loss SEC teams - Alabama (85), Ole Miss (83), Tennessee (82), Texas A&M (76), LSU (75) - is in order, and the line should be at a touchdown or lower.
If the Bulldogs, capable of beating Texas (95) in Austin, are simply victims of getting beat by good teams in their stadium, and finally getting one of their four big games of the season between the hedges means we can expect their best effort of the season, then the opening line of -10.5 more than fair.
Tennessee’s been steadily rated throughout the season, so they’re acting as the constant in this calculation. The Vols’ squeaked by most of their October schedule, but we had similar questions about the Ole Miss offense two weeks ago before exploding against Arkansas and to a comparable extent, Georgia.
Many of the biggest upsets this season, as usual, have come from the home team (followed by the ritual of tearing down the goalposts), so hoping for a Tennessee shocker on the road may be foolish given Georgia’s home winning streak. Maybe there’s hope though, given Georgia’s home games in the SEC have come with slow starts against poor competition (Auburn, Mississippi State). Maybe the Vols have a chance if they can shake their own habit of first half scoring droughts.
With the Vols’ defense capable of matching up, and all the signs that Georgia isn’t quite what they’ve been the last few years, we’ll take 10 points with ol’ Rocky Top, and shop for a better line than that.
Pick: Tennessee (+10.5, -111 at Pinnacle/-118 at FanDuel)
For more of a breakdown of the college football betting markets, including bets for games during the week and a look at the Heisman Trophy market, check out THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast.