CFB Week 12 betting: The “Saturday 7”

Bullish on the Buffaloes, Gator bait, and undefeated teams on upset watch

Nov 15, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

The good stuff got back on track last week with the type of 4-3 effort we’d grown accustomed to. Sitting at 53.3% for the season, 55% or better is still within reach, with two more regular season games to go and our pick of the litter come for Bowl season.

Utah @ No. 17 Colorado (-11, 45.5)

We’ve come a long way on Colorado. Like a hike from east to west over the American Rockies, the trek has been arduous, with ups and downs, and I’m sure I’ve hallucinated at various points, but here we are - believing in the Buffaloes.

Or maybe it’s just a fade of Utah.

As expected, the Utes left it all on the field last week in Salt Lake City in a desperate attempt to salvage a season with an extra-special win in the Holy War that would have crushed BYU’s soul. They were a defensive holding penalty away from doing it too.

Normally, when a team covers a spread (and comes so close to an outright upset), their rating should increase. However, Utah went into their biggest game turning away from Isaac Wilson, opting to go with sophomore fourth-stringer Brandon Rose, who got the ball to the pertinent weapons, and even used his legs in key spots. He also hurt one of those legs, and is undergoing season-ending surgery. Wilson’s back in, but will be without star tight end Brant Kuithe, who was also hurt late last Saturday night.

With all these reasons to sell the Utes, and Colorado matching market expectations with a win on the road amongst flying tortilla shells in Lubbock, my line projection of Colorado -16 seems more doable with one team still firmly in the Big 12 Championship and College Football Playoff hunt, and the other playing out the string.

Pick: Colorado (-11, -108 at DraftKings)

Michigan State @ Illinois (-2.5, 47.5)

This line opened at -3.5, but was quickly bet down to -3, and before I could hit “publish” it’s down to -2.5, but with my projection of Illinois -1, that’s understandable and still leaves some value on the Spartans.

Both teams have had their bye week, with the Illini coming off a home loss to Minnesota, after getting smoked by Oregon, while Michigan State joined the club of teams that have been beaten soundly by Indiana. At least the Spartans can hang their hat on taking a lead on the Hoosiers.

At this point in the season, we often have at least a few shared opponent data points for conference foes. In this case, not really:

Vs. Oregon: MSU lost 21, Illinois lost by 29
Vs. Michigan: MSU lost by 7, Illinois won by 14

The conflicting scores against Michigan might make you believe that Illinois is notably better than Michigan State, but the Wolverines out-gained the Illini 322-267, but lost the turnover battle 3-0 in Champaign. While the Spartans out-gained the Wolverines 352-265 on the road in Ann Arbor.

If those types of scoreboard comparisons are why the Illinois were over a field goal favorite, and the market’s sussed out that it should be closer to a pick’em, we’ll happily take any points we can get

Pick: Michigan State (+2.5)

No. 22 LSU @ Florida (+4, 55)

Was Alabama-LSU an elimination game between two contenders, or just another win for the Crimson Tide on the way to the College Football Playoff against a mediocre SEC team who pulled off a nice home upset over Ole Miss earlier in the year?

Hindsight is 20/20, but if the Tigers hadn’t escaped that game against the Rebels or their trip to South Carolina earlier in the year, we’re talking about a .500 team that also just has their biggest goals squelched.

Regardless of what Brian Kelly’s team “is,” this is more about Florida. Graham Mertz was a capable stopgap to the future of the Gators’ quarterback position, but DJ Lagway is getting rave reviews as he’s been thrust into full-time action early. Florida hung with Georgia in the WLOCT, but Lagway pulled his hamstring when the game was still close and was held out of last week’s trip to Austin. That game went exactly how’d you expect it would with the third-string QB.

Lagway’s expected to return this week, but the Gators’ rating hasn’t been bumped back up to where it should, while LSU has held steady despite being dominated at home last week. Considering LSU -3 would be a stretch, we’re getting value on the Gators at over a field goal.

Pick: Florida (+4, -112 at DraftKings)

Troy @ Georgia Southern (-7.5, 54.5)

When Jon Sumrall left Troy for Tulane, Gerad Parker took over one of the top programs in the Sun Belt, as the Trojans had won back-to-back conference titles. Presumably, he would have liked to have Gunnar Watson - the quarterback for those teams, but instead he’s had to start three different QBs this season.

Parker did inherit Sumrall’s aggressive non-conference schedule that featured trips to Memphis and Iowa. Then, in the first conference game of the season, he got one pass attempt from this year’s starter, Goose Crowder. The Trojans offense dried up and they lost a 12-7 game with Louisiana-Monroe, before auditioning Crowder’s replacement(s) while dropping games to conference contenders, Texas State and South Alabama. The Trojans rating fell.

However, something happened on the way to 1-7. Matthew Caldwell got more comfortable by the game, with 300+ yards in a 3-point loss at Arkansas State and the ground game finally exploded in a convincing win over Coastal Carolina. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern - rated below Troy before the season - started 4-1 in the conference. Their rating went up.

Whether Crowder returns this weekend - a possibility if you’re reading into this line falling from 8.5 to 7.5 - or if it’s Caldwell again, my conservative projected spread of Eagles -6 means there’s value on anything north of a touchdown.

Pick: Troy (+7.5, -104 at FanDuel)

No. 13 Boise State @ San Jose State (+14, 61.5)

We’ve mostly tried to steer clear of fading Boise State in this space, during their march through the dregs of the Mountain West, but lo and behold, they have a challenging game, similar to their close win over UNLV a few weeks back.

San Jose State has something the Broncos can relate to - a game-changing star on offense. Receiver Nick Nash should probably be teammates with Ashton Jeanty at some SEC or Big Ten school, instead he’s also lighting up the Mountain West (1156 yards, 13 TD) despite a mysterious, mid-game, midseason switch at quarterback by Spartans’ offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann.

San Jose State lost 33-10 despite actually out-gaining Fresno State, because three different players threw four total interceptions. Coming out of the bye week, Stutzmann seemed to settle on Walker Eget (who had battled early-season starter Emmett “Doc” Brown for the job before the season), and he threw for 395 yards to beat Oregon State handily last week.

The Spartans’ defense isn’t anything to text home about, but run defense is the best element of it at 50th in the country in defensive EPA/Play on opponent’s runs. That’s much better than recent Broncos’ opponents like Nevada, San Diego State, and Utah State - all outside the top-100.

Pick: San Jose State (+14, -108 at DraftKings)

No. 1 Oregon @ Wisconsin (+14, 51.5)

The betting market may have seen what I did.

I have the projected line for Oregon’s next trip to Big Ten country (original) at -11, so the money that’s come in on the Badgers seems legit.

Wisconsin’s already been in this situation, hosting a top team in Madison at night, playing Penn State to a 1-point game through three quarters - and they only trailed due to a pick-6.

Maybe the Ducks turn over Braedyn Locke in similar fashion, but an 8-point win won’t cover the spread like it did that night.

The Ducks other trips to the Midwest were to Purdue (yawn), and a drilling of Michigan, where they made a point to send a message by tacking on a late touchdown to go from a 2-score game to a 21-point win.

Given all the Ducks need to stay at No. 1 is to not lose, they’ll be content with running out the clock if they’re in a similar situation. However, you’re undefeated until you’re not anymore, and if there’s anything we know about November nights in college football, it’s that you best be ready for anything.

Pick: Wisconsin (+14, BetRivers, Northstar, -119 at Pinnacle)

Kansas @ No. 6 BYU (-2.5,

We give credit where it’s due, and Kansas deserves it for pounding Iowa State in a situation where the Cyclones should have been locked in, and you could excuse the Jayhawks for being only moderately interested in a neutral-ish site game in Kansas City. Jalon Daniels had guys running wide open through an, admittedly, poor Cyclones’ pass defense.

Meanwhile, Utah isn’t the only team that might be feeling the after effects of the Holy War. The Cougars pulled their undefeated season back from the brink, as it twice looked like the Utes had stuck it to them, but they may not be so lucky this week against an infinitely more deadly offense.

How can 9-0 BYU be considered a bad bet against 3-6 KU?

Before the season, the Jayhawks were in the second-tier of Big 12 contenders, but five of their losses have come by six points or less, so they’re back to rated where they were when Week 1 kicked off. Even with a boost in BYU’s rating for being without a loss, that’s been tempered by a weak schedule and close calls to Utah and Oklahoma State at home, so a fair line would be BYU -1.5.

It’s likely why Kansas has been bet down from a Sunday open of BYU -4.5. The moneyline is tempting but we’ll guard against the possibility of another late night, and capture the key number of two, should that include overtime.