CFB Week 13 betting: Big game lookahead
Making the best of a bad situation
Mercifully, it’s our final big game lookahead for the season, as the results on these have gotten to the point where it feels like somewhere in between a terrible comedic bit and pure torture.
Our Week 12 example - getting Tennessee +10.5, watching it close +8.5, the Volunteers take a 10-0 lead, only to lose 24-10 - can be filed alongside other big games where instant double-digit leads melted away for underdogs like Penn State (vs. Ohio State in Week 10) and Texas Tech (vs. Colorado in Week 11).
So, what the hell? One for the road, I guess?…
No. 5 Indiana @ No. 2 Ohio State (-13.5, 51.5)
Oh good, let’s kick things off with the team that’s been the hardest to rate all season. Indiana went from a 41/100 in estimated market power ratings last year to 61 before this season, to 79/100 heading into Columbus, and until a non-cover against Michigan, the market could catch up.
It’s the most fascinating game of the season, because not only does it feel just as likely that Indiana wins as they get blown out, but if the Hoosiers pull the upset, it may also knock Ohio State clear off the College Football Playoff top-12, as a lone big-time win over Penn State (and their own zero big-time wins) doesn’t leave much of a resume. Meanwhile, a Buckeyes’ win (and cover?) likely leaves Indiana without a case for the CFP.
The latter result would be too bad, because the Hoosiers are good, but if your best win is Washington or Michigan, that’s never gonna stack up. The strength of schedule weakness is concerning but Indiana’s EPA/Play on offense is third in the country and the same metric on defense is 16th for a net of eighth nationally. All of that is to say, the Hoosiers haven’t been escaping games the way recent Cinderella-esque playoff teams like TCU and Washington have in recent years.
All the attention has been towards who Indiana hasn’t played, but Ohio State’s schedule hasn’t been a gauntlet either, with close games against the three teams that are in their stratosphere - Oregon, Nebraska and Penn State. The most likely result is in-between the poles of “big upset” and “favorite covers,” so we’ll take the points, and watch the world argue Indiana’s merits after a competitive loss.
Pick: Indiana (+13.5, Bet365)
*Note: Is this truly an elimination game? Tune into Friday’s THE WINDOW podcast, where Matt looks at a way to bet that it is.
No. 16 Colorado @ Kansas (+2.5, 59.5)
Are the Jayhawks the “Don’t look now…” or “All of a sudden…” team?
Pick your sportswriter’s trope, but Kansas went from preseason conference darkhorse, to unlucky loser of five one-score games, to certified problem for the Big 12 leaders down the stretch, knocking BYU from the ranks of the unbeatens in Provo last Saturday. The Jayhawks were deemed better than the Cougars before the season, and they showed that wasn’t a crazy take. This Saturday, they play host to Colorado, who are sitting on the top of the world - a precarious position for college football teams in November.
The real surprise last week was that KU won a low-scoring game, since they’re 18th nationally in offensive EPA/Play (ahead of Colorado), and their defense is a weakness. The Buffaloes’ defense has been the big improvement over last year, but the opposition hasn’t been on the level of Kansas. Cincinnati (38th), Texas Tech (40th), Arizona (47th), and Utah (85th, with a backup quarterback), are the last four wins, while the Jayhawks’ are similar to Kansas State (14th), who are the last team to beat Colorado.
Kansas is live to win this game, and the value is on the Jayhawks, since my projected line is right on pick’em, but the total is also interesting.
We haven’t played a college total all season, but both teams should move the ball at will, and Colorado’s allowed 21+ points to everyone in the Big 12 other than Arizona, and Kansas is playing better than any of those teams at the time they played the Buffs. Meanwhile, Colorado’s always up for shootout, and 59.5 is well within reach.
Pick: Kansas (+2.5), Over 59.5 total points
No. 14 BYU @ No. 21 Arizona State (-3, 48.5)
The hardest part about the football season is showing up ready for battle in a sport where any loss is nearly a disaster.
The weeks pile up, and it isn’t just adding one game, it’s almost an exponential pressure.
BYU may have had their undefeated bubble burst, but it doesn’t release all the pressure amidst the standings of the messy Big 12 race. The Cougars have mostly avoided ranked teams, but here comes a road game against one, who’ve found themselves in virtually the same place as BYU, but without the cumulative exhaustion of trying to survive the microscope.
With a win in the desert, Arizona State affectively switches spots with BYU, taking over a top-2 spot in the conference standings. They haven’t had to deal with the stress of a rivalry game or an undefeated season. Instead, they’re coming off a dominant performance in Manhattan, Kansas, where they saw their star running back, Cam Skattebo, work his way back into the lineup, but it was Kenny Dillingham’s defense coming up big for the second straight week. You can do worse than a good running game and opportunistic defense at home in a big game.
The Sun Devils’ take advantage of a running-on-empty BYU team, and potentially put things in motion for a four-way tie atop the conference heading into the season’s final week.
Pick: Arizona State (-3)
No. 19 Army @ No. 6 Notre Dame (-14.5, 44.5)
We might as well finish the season’s “big games” with a semi-conflict of interest.
Podcast listeners (that are playing along) are free-rolling a “Notre Dame to miss the playoff” bet, that would be helped along nicely if undefeated Army could stay that way.
However, we might be walking into a “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me” scenario if backing the Academy underdog.
Army’s better than Navy on offense (21st in EPA/Play to Navy’s 45th), but their defense have similarly poor ratings. The Midshipmen hit the self-destruct button in that game, but there’s reason to believe Army may be overmatched as well, even if they have better ball security.
At +14.5, the number is inviting bettors’ to take Army as well, but we need to dig into how the spread was made.
Before an injury to quarterback Bryson Daily kept him out of the Air Force game, Army was -23. You could translate that into an overall team rating of 55/100 nationally. The line dropped in his absence, and Army couldn’t cover, but Daily came back against North Texas and Army was deemed a 60/100, managing to cover as 5.5-point favorites on the road. However, they got away with one against the spread, as the Mean Green coughed up numerous chances to score at the goal line, and Army only scored twice against the 112th-ranked defense by EPA/Play.
After losing to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame’s slowly worked their way back up to their preseason rating, but the Irish might be even better than that. The last Army rating puts Notre Dame -15 on this neutral site, but given the Irish’s experience against the modern triple-option, and their top-5 defense, the Knights may have trouble scoring.
The hope for Army is that, since both teams tend to keep the ball on the ground, and the clock should be running, there aren’t enough possessions to extend a big lead. If that’s the case, the under is a better idea on a cold November night in Yankee Stadium.
Pick: Under 44.5 total points
For more of a breakdown of the college football betting markets, including bets for games during the week and a look at the Heisman Trophy market, check out THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast.