CFB Week 13 betting: The “Saturday 7”

Cold-weather teams stay hot, and teams on upset watch for the regular season’s penultimate Saturday

Nov 22, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

The “good stuff” went 5-2 last week, and the good news is, with a pair of “best bet” articles for next week, we get to pick and choose what we really like for Black Friday and next Saturday’s regular-season swan song. Given our greatest advantage as a bettor is the freedom of selectivity, the hope is that we’ll have it turned up to 11 for the holiday season.

No. 25 Illinois @ Rutgers (-1, 47.5)

October was forgettable for Rutgers. After starting the season 4-0, the Scarlet Knights went 0-for-the-month, concluding with a trip to L.A. where they got predictably blown out by USC, allowing 8.7 yards per play.

A bye week couldn’t have come at a better time.

Needing two more wins to qualify for Bowl season, Rutgers came out of their week off and won two games as an underdog against teams in their same tier in Big Ten - Minnesota and Maryland. Now in comes Illinois, who suddenly have a number next to their name, indicating that there might only be 24 ranking-worthy teams in college football this season.

The Illini won by 22 points last week, out-gaining Michigan State at home by… 26 yards.

Getting ranked off that performance is the mainstream version of getting boosted in the betting market. Meanwhile, one Rutgers’ upset win might be a fluke, but two is a trend, and an indication that the market isn’t giving Greg Schiano any credit for cleaning up whatever issues there might have been in Piscataway.

I have Rutgers over a field goal better than Illinois in the Knights’ final home game of the season, so it comes as no surprise that the favorite’s been flipped throughout the week, as Illinois can’t really improve their postseason positioning, and also have the Windy City rivalry game at Wrigley Field on deck.

Pick: Rutgers (PK, -115 at DraftKings)

North Carolina @ Boston College (+3, 55.5)

SMU’s cosmetic touchdown with 13 seconds left almost worked.

A 10-point win over Boston College last week doesn’t look like anything out of the ordinary, but if you were paying attention during the game, you know the Eagles were going blow-for-blow with the Mustangs despite a market having sold them with the departure of starting quarterback Thomas Castellanos. With Grayson James at the helm, B.C. still managed 417 yards to SMU’s 438. This coming a week after they beat Syracuse using a total of seven pass completions.

With a backup quarterback, one team you might hope comes to town is the North Carolina Tar Heels, especially if they’re giving you points before the game, knowing full well they’ll give up some more on the field.

Last week, Heels’ star tailback Omarion Hampton had 244 rushing yards in a Bowl-eligibility clincher over Wake Forest, but they couldn’t cover the spread in Chapel Hill because the Deacons’ backup quarterback, Michael Kern, marched them down the field to get in through the backdoor.

B.C. still needs a win to also reach the postseason, and playing SMU to the wire in Dallas tells me they’re capable of matching up here. Getting points is merely a bonus.

Pick: Boston College (+2.5, +100 at FanDuel)

*Note: Edited from originally published typo of “North Carolina +2.5”

San Diego State @ Utah State (-5, 61.5)

Here’s a quick look at our win with Utah State (as 2.5-point underdogs!) against Hawaii last week:

580 yards and 55 points later and the Aggies dismantled a warm-weather team coming up to Logan with little to play for, after battling UNLV at home a week earlier.

San Diego State isn’t even that good. At 121st in the country in net team EPA/Play, they just got blown out by the Rebels in Las Vegas, lost at home to New Mexico, and haven’t won since edging Wyoming and Hawaii back-to-back in early October.

They have better than a snowball’s chance, but it would be a hell of a twist if the Aztec’s played well enough to not lose by at least a touchdown with Spencer Petras and the Aggies having found their scoring touch in the cold.

Pick: Utah State (-5, -108 at DraftKings)

Northwestern @ Michigan (-10, 36.5)

One of the hot-button stats the anti-Indiana crowd are spouting is that they only managed 246 yards against Michigan in their last game. While it hasn’t been a great follow-up-to-the-championship season in Ann Arbor, they still have more than enough talent on defense.

It would be a shame if the Wolverines didn’t make a Bowl game this season, and while their season would be made with a win over Ohio State next week (wouldn’t THAT be something?!), it’s best they take care of business out of their bye, against a team they should overmatch in the trenches.

The Wildcats hung around with the Buckeyes for a quarter-and-a-half last week, and are back at Wrigley next week, but they may not score in the Big House. After taking on Oregon and Indiana, Michigan should be fully-stocked for a team they know they can run over, as they tune-up for Columbus.

Pick: Michigan (-10, -112 at DraftKings)

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (+3.5, 67.5)

Based on previous point spreads, Texas Tech -3.5 is a fair point spread.

The Red Raiders lost 41-27 to Colorado before their bye week, but that was a much closer game than the score suggests, but there’s no way to upgrade Tech off that loss.

More importantly, has no one noticed how awful Oklahoma State is?

With the exception of the night they got edged in Provo by BYU, in a game oft-referenced as an example of why the Cougars might not be great, the Cowboys have lost by double digits in every game since losing by three at home to Utah in mid-September.

Unlike the other teams that come off their last bye week with something to play for, Oklahoma State doesn’t even have the Bedlam Game to look forward to anymore.

The Red Raiders won at Arizona and Iowa State and lost by a point at TCU, so their road record suggests they shouldn’t have an issue in Stillwater.

Pick: Texas Tech (-3.5, -108 at DraftKings)

No. 4 Penn State @ Minnesota (+11, 45.5)

The Golden Gophers could do some teams a favor this weekend.

Penn State is ranked fourth, and it’s easily the funniest thing that’s happened all season, as the Nittany Lions apparently get to waltz to the College Football Playoff without actually having to beat anyone.

Which we saw coming, by the way, with a bet on Penn State to make the CFP before the season.

Unless, of course, Minnesota pulls off a stunner.

With apologies to Maryland (I guess), this is the last chance for James Franklin to trip and fall, and while the Nittany Lions aren’t going to lose (right?), this game feels similar to PSU’s trip to Madison, where they were in a dogfight into the fourth quarter (or Oregon at Wisconsin last week). Minnesota has the similar grimy profile, and after the Nittany Lions took out their anger from botching the Ohio State game on Washington and Purdue, they’re rating has created a point spread higher than the eight points I think it should be.

Pick: Minnesota (+11, -115 at Bet365)

Troy @ Louisiana (-10.5, 52.5)

We spelt out the reasons why a prideful Troy program might be better than the market thinks when we took the Trojans +7.5 last week against Sun Belt contender Georgia Southern:

“Matthew Caldwell got more comfortable by the game, with 300+ yards in a 3-point loss at Arkansas State and the ground game finally exploded in a convincing win over Coastal Carolina. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern - rated below Troy before the season - started 4-1 in the conference. Their rating went up.”

Then Caldwell went 28/32 for 288 yards and two touchdowns in an outright road win.

So, for lack of a better handicap, why wouldn’t we fill up the Trojan horse again?

Louisiana finally lost a conference game last week, showing their invincibility after a series of six-to-10-point wins. Of course, they’re welcome to win by that margin on Saturday, but if Troy has found their fight after a rough start, maybe another upset’s possible.