CFB Week 14 betting: The “Saturday 7”

Best bets among the regular season finales

Nov 29, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

The good stuff went 5-2 last week, but, if you were following closely, you know that Greg Schiano owes us one.

I’m sure if you had asked the Rutgers head coach, before their game with Illinois, if he would be OK with the result coming down to the opponent having to kick a 58-yard field goal in the crisp New Jersey air, he’d probably take that deal. So, after calling an “ice” timeout with 14 seconds left, Schiano likely immediately regretted it, since it allowed the Illini to rethink the attempt, go for it on fourth down, and score a 40-yard touchdown - where Schiano’s defense didn’t lay a hand on the receiver.

Our collective shock and awe ensued.

Even if it’s now two weeks in a row where a catastrophic bad beat flipped a win into loss.

We’re trying not to get used to them.

UTSA @ Army (-7, 54.5)

After an under-the-radar but shockingly-long era, led by 7-year quarterback Frank Harris, UTSA had some adjusting to do this season, in conjunction with the development of sophomore Owen McCown (son of Josh).

The schedule didn’t help. Trips to Austin and San Marcos weren’t easy, and the Roadrunners fell short in close losses on the road in conference as well. However, the offense’s point total gradually improved, so that by the middle of season, UTSA is now putting up 40+ points per game.

Army’s lack of competition was exposed at Yankee Stadium last Saturday night, but they still have a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game (in their first year), as well as the Army-Navy game a week after. Oh, by the way, there’s this random, meaningless game against UTSA in the midst of three important ones.

Army’s rating has dipped after the Notre Dame loss, but their schedule was so soft leading into that game, who’s to say how far it should come down? Before the season, they were assessed as a 43/100 in our estimated market rating system. Going into last week they got as high as 63/100. This line implies they’ve been downgraded to 55/100, but the argument could be made that’s not low enough, especially given the “spot.” Meanwhile, UTSA’s rating is where it was before the season began, but having covered three in a row, the Roadrunners may be better than that.

Pick: UTSA (+7, -112 at DraftKings)

No. 23 Illinois @ Northwestern (+7.5, 44)

A brazen effort to get vengeance from the Illinois-Rutgers game would be to bet against Rutgers, but there was a reason we liked the Scarlet Knights last week, even if we can’t look their head coach in the eye anymore. Moreover, there was even more of a reason we wanted to fade Illinois, and probably should have got paid on that decision. Luckily (maybe), we get to apply those reasons again this week, without making a bet purely on spite.

Taking last week’s rating of Illinois - which we already thought was inflated, and removing any application of home-field advantage for Northwestern (since they’re playing at Wrigley Field again), the projected point spread for this game would be Illinois -6.

The move through -7, up to -8 (only to be bet back down +7.5), might come from an upgrade for Illinois, but it also might be due to Northwestern getting smoked by Ohio State and Michigan the last two weeks. However, read that sentence again. Of course Ohio State and Michigan (particularly on defense) dominated the Wildcats in the trenches. In a more even matchup, the expectation is that Northwestern can compete in their season finale.

Pick: Northwestern (+7.5, Bet365)

Michigan @ No. 2 Ohio State (-19.5, 42.5)

Speaking of the top of the Big Ten, “The Game” doesn’t have the same level of outcome uncertainty that we’ve been treated to during the recent era of Jim Harbaugh, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t some value to be gleaned - maybe more than in years’ past.

The quarterback situation was a fiasco this season in Ann Arbor, and they’ve made a point to rectify that situation for next year. However, when it comes to this rivalry, while we’ll stop short of asking you to throw out the records, we will bet on Michigan to give everything they have to save their season with a win over the Buckeyes - even if they’ll fall short.

Ohio State was expected to be better than Michigan, as they were projected 9.5-point favorites before the season. The tumult of not having a functional passing game hurt the Wolverines’ rating, but with a total of 42.5, the market’s already telling us they expect this game to be a grind at the line of scrimmage. If that’s the case, Michigan’s defensive line can limit the damage and it won’t take much for Michigan to cover a big spread, relying on finding a crease or two to create an explosive play in the run game, or play-action.

Pick: Michigan (+19.5, -106 at FanDuel)

North Carolina State @ North Carolina (-3.5, 55.5)

You have to think that the Tar Heels were politely waiting for Mack Brown to retire, only the revered 73-year-old college football legend went full-Biden, and didn’t know it was time to step down until it was too late.

If the Tar Heels were going to fight for their coach’s honor, they would have done so by now, and they wouldn’t have been trailing Boston College 41-7 with five minutes to go last week.

North Carolina has already qualified for a Bowl game - if they even want to bother with one. Meanwhile, North Carolina State needs another win to become postseason eligible, and if you watched them two Thursdays ago at Georgia Tech (a tougher group than UNC), you know they fought like hell to get that sixth win, out-gaining the Yellow Jackets but falling just short, with a missed field goal at the bell.

Dave Doeren’s group has the better quarterback, defense, and more signs of self-motivation at the exact time of year when that matters as much as anything else in college football.

Pick: North Carolina State (+3.5, -115 at DraftKings)

No. 5 Notre Dame @ USC (+7.5, 51.5)

On this week’s Tuesday episode of THE WINDOW podcast, we preached the virtues of strength of schedule in college football and the importance of understanding who you play (and sometimes when you play them) matters in a sport with heavily weighted scheduling. Last week, Notre Dame wasted Army - a team undefeated and ranked because of a lack of quality competition faced.

This week, the tables have finally turned, as Notre Dame gets something of a legitimate test in their season-ending rivalry game with USC. The Trojans have five losses, so it doesn’t seem like this game should present the Irish any danger, but USC had fourth quarter leads at Michigan, Minnesota, vs. Penn State, at Maryland, and at Washington. If they’d won a couple of those (the Maryland loss is the inexcusable one), USC would at least be ranked, ala Illinois, UNLV, or an assortment of Big 12 contenders.

If USC has a fourth quarter lead again, Lincoln Riley’s unlikely to keep it, but it doesn’t mean the Trojans aren’t a good bet to stay within an inflated number based on Notre Dame plowing through a schedule where, since the season-opening win at Texas A&M (Conner Weigman edition), they haven’t played a currently ranked team, or a true road game against anyone other than Purdue.

Pick: USC (+7.5, Bet365)

Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern (-2.5, 62)

Appalachian State has regularly disappointed this season, with the exception of games played at home against mediocre teams, having accumulated their wins against Georgia State and Old Dominion. Until last week, when they jumped up in their home finale and took down James Madison as 7.5-point home underdogs. They were out-gained by the Dukes, allowing 400 yards, but won by two touchdowns anyway, and another win puts the Mountaineers in a bowl game, so there’s belief in Boone. However, they also did Georgia Southern a favor last week.

The Eagles are still in the hunt for the Sun Belt’s East division and a place in next week’s conference championship game, and clearing JMU out of the way means that Georgia Southern just has Marshall to worry about later on Saturday.

App State’s win might have also bumped their rating high enough to have this point spread dip below a field goal. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ rating was hurt by facing Troy at the exact wrong time, a loss that looks worse on the surface than it actually is.

Pick: Georgia Southern (-2.5, FanDuel)

TCU @ Cincinnati (+3.5, 58.5)

You have to go out of your way to lose at home if you have 200 more yards from scrimmage than your opponent, all while out-rushing that team (known for being a run-first offense), but Cincinnati did it.

Four weeks ago, the Bearcats were 5-4 and 3.5-point favorites against West Virginia, but a pick-6 and a scoop-and-score provided the Mountaineers much of the offense they needed for the upset. Cincinnati then went to Iowa State and Kansas State (two of the tougher places to play in the Big 12), catching both teams coming off their own home upset loss, and the Bearcats are still sitting at five wins. In those games, Cinci ran for 287 yards in Ames and 174 in Manhattan, but lost convincingly where it matters most - on the scoreboard.

So the market sells the Bearcats going into their finale at home against a TCU team that won back-to-back home games against the bottom of the Big 12. Had this game been played three weeks ago, Cincinnati’s probably -3.5 in the same way they were against West Virginia, but misfortune and schedule variables flip the line, setting up a perfect buy-low/sell-high situation for us to close out the regular season with.