CFB Week 2 best bets: “The Saturday Seven”

Teams being undervalued by the betting market this week

Sep 06, 2024

Lines are moving in the big college football games of Week 2. Which is why we make it a point to get our plays early into the betting accounts. As of this posting, four of five have moved, and three of four have moved in our direction:

Texas -7.5 -> Texas -7
Iowa -2.5 -> Iowa -3
Tennessee -7.5 -> Tennessee -10
Oregon -19 -> Oregon -21

Line value doesn’t promise anything, of course. Especially after a 5-4 Week 1 where we had success with teams who saw the market move against them.

Arkansas @ Oklahoma State (-7.5, 62.5)

When teams play walkover-level opponents, it’s like Week 1 all over again in Week 2.

Both of these teams played, but neither saw their rating move.

So, why is Arkansas undervalued here?

Their rating is roughly the same as last year (as is the Cowboys’), but with Bobby Petrino at the helm, the Razorbacks’ offense should take better advantage of the talent they have, specifically transfers Taylen Green and Ja‘Quinden Jackson. It’s a considerably different setup to last year in Fayetteville, where the Arkansas offense often looked extremely basic, hoping that K.J. Jefferson would make up for Raheim “Rocket” Sanders never fully launching. Jefferson wasn’t able to make up for the short-comings in scheme, often leading to him being corralled for an inefficient gain.

The Cowboys beat FCS South Dakota State handily on the scoreboard, 44-20. However, they out-gained the Jackrabbits by just six yards and South Dakota State failed on four different fourth-down attempts. While Ollie Gordon piled up yards and touchdowns, I don’t know why he needed to carry the ball 28 times. It suggests Mike Gundy didn’t have the most confidence in his defense or depth players, to close out the win.

Getting more than a touchdown here, in what might be a sleepier late-morning environment, is enough to make me believe we have a valuable bet in this border-rival matchup.

Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)

Army @ Florida Atlantic (-3.5, 42.5)

The best part about Week 1’s quasi-marathon schedule, where games are spread out from Thursday through to Monday, is that you get to watch more teams, more closely. That’s usually valuable, but it’s not always fun. Especially if you have to watch Florida Atlantic play offense and Cam Fancher play quarterback.

The Owls managed to hang around with Michigan State and cover as 2-touchdown underdogs on Friday night, but there wasn’t anything from Fancher - and Tom Herman’s offense - that would excite you about backing them in the reverse role, as a favorite.

This line would have been a flat -3 before the season started, and there’s nothing we can take away from Army’s drubbing of Lehigh. So, if a 248-yard effort in a grim affair in East Lansing is the reason FAU opened -4 then, like the first line move suggests, there’s value on the underdog.

With their triple-option, the Black Knights will try to wear down the Owls in the Florida heat, but might have a few more pass plays up their sleeve to keep long, time-consuming drives going. A good recipe for an underdog.

Pick: Army (+3.5)

Bowling Green @ Penn State (-35, 48.5)

I know what I’ve said about James Franklin’s passionate desire to cover point spreads against overmatched competition, but the spread’s up to five touchdowns against a sleeper contender for the MAC title.

Connor Bazelak and company made light work of Fordham in their season debut, while Penn State had to get amped up for West Virginia’s allegedly raucous environment. The Nittany Lions have a bye week on deck so once this game is in hand, Franklin should be more likely to get the starters out of the game.

Pick: Bowling Green (+35, Pinnacle)

Georgia Tech @ Syracuse (+3, 60.5)

Through no fault of their own, Georgia Tech’s season-opening win over Florida State has lost some shine on it, hasn’t it? Battling the Seminoles to at least a draw in the trenches isn’t as impressive after watching Boston College handle Florida State in Tallahassee on Monday night.

While Georgia Tech covered the spread (much to our chagrin) against Georgia State, many who watched the game were left wondering, “How?”, as the Panthers ran for 150 yards and had ample scoring opportunities to stay within the number.

Now the Yellow Jackets play their first true road game of the season, against another team that came up just shy of covering for us. However, Kyle McCord was everything we hoped he would be in his new dome digs, with 354 passing yards. The Cuse defense was suspect, so we’ll think twice about needing them to cover as a big favorite until things get tightened up, but two weeks ago, the Orange would have been favored in this game (and potentially by a decent amount).

Pick: Syracuse (+3, Bet365)

Northern Illinois @ Notre Dame (-28, 44.5)

The Irish sure paved themselves a path to the College Football Playoff with their road win at College Station on Saturday night, since the rest of their schedule is very manageable, and they can take a loss or two and still get in. But rarely does Notre Dame follow their biggest showdown victories by blowing out a lesser opponent the following week, especially under Marcus Freeman, and the path doesn’t change if they “only” win by 20 on Saturday.

This Northern Illinois program has made a habit out of being a thorn in the side of more talented teams. While this point spread might be appropriate - or even a little low - based on market ratings, the spot here screams to back a veteran Husky squad who will treat this game like Notre Dame did the Texas A&M game.

Pick: Northern Illinois (+28, Bet365)

Kansas @ Illinois (+5.5, 55.5)

In another matchup between teams that didn’t have much to do in Week 1 - crushing non-FBS opponents - we’re seeing a couple points value. I have Kansas as a 3-point road favorite (and would have been interested in taking a field goal with the home ‘dog), but the Jayhawks opened -6.5 and I was greedily hoping the line might tick up to a full seven. Unfortunately, the market may have similar calculations to mine and money’s come in on the Illini to see it tick through +6.

Since my projection was Illinois +3, I’m playing it anyway with the belief the Illini offensive line can create enough push to provide running lanes for Bret Bielema’s tailbacks and time for Luke Altmeyer to keep up with Kansas’s high-octane offense.

Pick: Illinois (+5.5, FanDuel)

South Florida @ Alabama (-31, 64)

Our third and final mega-underdog that we think can keep within an area code on the scoreboard - South Florida, who is a contender in the American Conference, something that Western Kentucky (Conference USA) would never be.

The Hilltoppers take that stray because their 63-0 loss to Alabama might have bettors buying all the way in on the Crimson Tide. There’s also a possibility that WKU is terrible.

Oddsmakers opened Bama -27.5 on Sunday, possibly thinking that might be enough to dissuade Tide backers from piling on the favorite.

Nope. Instead, the line drifted up to -31.5 before seeing some buyback on South Florida - a team with an exponentially more talent than what the Tide saw last week.

Last year’s matchup in Tampa saw the Bulls run for 177 yards, though they scored just three points, during the very early stages of head coach Alex Golesh working with USF quarterback Byrum Brown.

Even if Jalen Milroe takes out lingering memories of his benching before this game last year and the Tide score way more than the 17 they had in an ugly win, South Florida should be able to hang within 3-4 touchdowns.

There’s no reason for Kalen DeBoer to keep the heat on in the fourth quarter, with a trip to Wisconsin and then prep for Georgia on their remaining September docket.