CFB Week 3 big game lookahead
Jump around in Wisconsin, Friday night lights, and the Apple Cup and Civil War are back
Week 1’s got its made-for-TV showdowns. Those unwilling to risk a loss in the season-opener schedule their toughest non-conference opponent in Week 2 (unless that’s reserved for a late-season rivalry game).
That’s largely how scheduling works in college football.Â
As for Week 3? Wellllll… it gets a little grim in the name of big games.Â
Salvaged by a pair of rivalry games that used to be reserved for later in the PAC-12 slate, there’s just a quartet of significant matchups to look forward to this weekend. Which, based on how last week’s split shook out, might be a good thing?
Season-long results
No. 20 Arizona @ No. 14 Kansas State (-7.5, 58.5)
Arguably the best matchup of the weekend (tightest point spread of ranked vs. ranked) goes off on a Friday night in Manhattan. Is it more surprising that the Little Apple will be the site of ticket as hot as anything happening in the Big Apple, or that Arizona is all of a sudden ranked?
As much as we’re a fan of Tetairoa McMillan around these parts, the desert Wildcats haven’t really done anything to deserve a top-25 nod. Last week’s win over FCS Northern Arizona wasn’t impressive, and while racking up stats against New Mexico (who had just lost to an FCS team the week prior) was cool, Arizona struggled with the Lobos’ dual-threat quarterback, Devon Dampier. Now their first road game comes in a hostile environment with Avery Johnson - 70+ rushing yards in his three starts last season - on the other side.
I have Kansas State projected as 9-point favorites, so there isn’t a huge edge on this from a numbers perspective, but if the market didn’t like K-State’s win on the road at Tulane last week, I think that’s a mistake. The Green Wave have arguably a better program than Arizona - even post-Willie Fritz and especially with Jedd Fisch no longer in Tucson. Finding a way to win last week was more impressive than anything Arizona’s done yet, and the ‘Cats in purple should score at will.
Pick: Kansas State (-7.5)
No. 4 Alabama @ Wisconsin (+16, 50.5)
After a disappointing 2023, Wisconsin’s 2024 season hasn’t started pretty for the Badgers with two non-covers of big numbers as a favorite. The tables are turned here, with Wisconsin as a big home underdog - a position far more comfortable for a team that wants to drag football games into the trenches.
If you look at the scoreboard, it looks like Alabama handled South Florida with ease last Saturday, but having won backing the Bulls in that game, we know that’s not the case. The Tide were threatened, trailing 14-13 at home, heading into the fourth quarter.
Alabama allowed 200+ rushing yards to USF. Even removing the yards earned on the ground from quarterback Byrum Brown, the Bulls ran for 5.23 yards per carry by their tailbacks.
Kalen DeBoer should have success at Alabama, but at the best of times in his excellent tenure at Washington, his teams had trouble staying engaged on the road to cover a big number. Meanwhile, even in a developmental 2023 season, Wisconsin went to the wire in a 1-score game late with the best opponent they hosted - Ohio State - without the benefit of legitimate quarterback play. Something the Badgers have addressed with Tyler Van Dyke.
I have this game projected at 8.5 points by preseason market ratings, so the line as high as it is, can only be a downgrading of Wisconsin from games where they were asked to win by a significant margin. Hanging around in a home game with Alabama is something they’re capable of.
Pick: Wisconsin (+16)
No. 9 Oregon @ Oregon State (+16.5, 50.0)
The Civil War goes on as a non-conference showdown, but who will care about it more?
The Beavers, left behind in the disintegration of the PAC-12 and without a conference title to compete for, have fewer goals to motivate them than ever before. The one that remains? Beat Oregon.
Whether Oregon State can or can’t, isn’t what’s being asked of them here. What the Beavers are asked to do is stay close with the Ducks, something that Idaho of the FCS and Boise State were able to do in Eugene. With two convincing wins - one, a shutout away from home - Oregon State has been arguably the more impressive side relative to their opponents this early in the season.
My hope is that Oregon gets their season turned around and look more like a national title contender, but until they do, I’m willing to take a massive underdog in a game the home side cares the most about. Especially if the Ducks are looking ahead to a bye week to get things right before starting the Big Ten schedule.
Applying Oregon’s rating drop heading into the game with Boise State, the projected line for this game would be Ducks -12.5. Nothing that came from a close game with the Broncos suggests the Ducks’ rating should be bumped back up to legitimize this point spread.
Pick: Oregon State (+16.5 at Pinnacle)
Washington State @ Washington (-4.5, 56.0)
The Apple Cup continues and like the Beavers, Washington State has all the motivation to take down their arch-rival. There are a few differences, though:
Washington State goes on the road.
Thanks to a 21-point win over Texas Tech last week, the Cougars are getting extra credit in the marketplace, bringing a projected line of over a touchdown down under the key number of -7.
The Beavers host a team that’s underwhelmed early this season, whereas Washington’s convincing wins have come while allowing just 98 and 129 passing yards, despite game scripts that would often artificially boost passing volume numbers.
Washington State was actually out-gained by Texas Tech, scoring four first-half touchdowns on drives of 42 yards or less (short fields provided by the Red Raiders). The Red Raiders couldn’t stop the Cougars on the ground, allowing over 300 yards rushing. Washington’s defense holds up at home and the Huskies take the Apple Cup somewhat convincingly.