CFB Week 3: The “Saturday Seven”
Coin-flips, big ‘dogs and… a favorite?!
College football’s trickle-down schedu-nomics decries that if the big games aren’t all that big, we might be going deep down the oddsboard in an attempt to follow last week’s quasi-sweep in the “Saturday 7”.
No, by the letter of the law - posted line at the time of publish - we didn’t get the sweep last week. However, luckily Oklahoma State went up to -8.5 on the way to -10, so you likely joined me in cashing all seven plays. If you didn’t get +8.5 or better on Arkansas, and your bet is dated after 9am on Friday, listen to THE WINDOW: Sports betting podcast for an offer to make you feel better.
That being said, value is value and the seven games we’ve targeted all have point spreads that are arguably a little off where they should be.
Cincinnati @ Miami-Ohio (+4, 46.5)
Miami is one of five teams in the FBS to just be getting around to playing a second game this season, but their lone data point is a tight loss at Northwestern.
We were on the Wildcats (-3) in that game, correctly anticipating that the Redhawks would have their challenges in keeping track of Mike Wright, and sure enough, he led Northwestern in rushing from the quarterback position.
After a week off, Miami gets to make their home debut by facing a more traditional offense from Cincinnati, who just lost a hard-fought battle with Pittsburgh.
Northwestern overpowered the Redhawks, but Brett Gabbert played well, making it through that game unscathed. It’s rare that the MAC team has the more proven, veteran quarterback, and it’s even rarer that we get to take a home underdog with one.
Pick: Miami (+4, Bet365)
North Texas @ Texas Tech (-10, 69.5)
The North Texas offense is cookin’ through two games, with 500+ yards in each, but they needed every one of them against South Alabama, giving up 582 yards to the Jaguars in a shootout. Then, last week, a 35-20 win over FCS Stephen F. Austin came with the help of the Lumberjacks failing on fourth down FIVE times.
Neither result is enough for me to upgrade North Texas from their preseason rating of 38/100 (that was also their closing rating last season), which makes me wonder why this spread is as low as it is.
Based on Texas Tech’s rating before the season, which was already downgraded from last year’s team, this line would be close to -20. Did this line creep down to -10 because the Red Raiders lost decisively in Pullman last week?
The Red Raiders didn’t lose because Behren Morton and the offense struggled, as they racked up 491 yards on the road. They did, however, turn the ball over four times, and were unable to contain the quarterback runs from Washington State’s John Mateer.
Chandler Morris is just as likely to have a big turnover game, and far less likely to burn Texas Tech with his legs. We’ll play a rare favorite in this space, thinking we’re getting the Red Raiders at something of a discount.
Pick: Texas Tech (-10, Pinnacle)
Appalachian State @ East Carolina (+1.5, 61.0)
There’s very little to be gleaned from East Carolina’s 2-0 start, unless you’re going to give the Pirates credit for winning on the road against Old Dominion, despite Jake Garcia’s four interceptions. Though, an almost 200-yard advantage helped.
There’s even less to be learned from Appalachian State’s first two games - overmatched at Clemson a week after they were the overmatch-ers against East Tennessee State. Neither game has a helpful application to this one, other than App State not covering either.
The point is, not enough has happened to change either team’s rating from before the season, where I have the Pirates as more likely to win this game at home. The point spread opened with App State favored by 2.5 points, but unsurprisingly, it’s starting to drift towards ECU.
Pick: East Carolina (+1.5, Pinnacle)
UAB @ Arkansas (-23.5, 60)
I don’t really want to bet on Trent Dilfer, but I think for the first (and maybe last) time, I’m going to do it. Strictly based on the numbers.
UAB was lined at six wins this season. With this likely loss to a SEC team on their schedule, it’s a number that suggests they’re rated as a middle-of-the-pack AAC team, like Florida Atlantic, Army, ECU, or Rice.
By comparison, FAU were 14.5-point underdogs in Week 1 at Michigan State - a team rated similarly to Arkansas. This line got as high as 24.5 before the market realized that’s too high, and I think there’s still room go.
Maybe the Razorbacks are getting a boost from almost winning in Stillwater last week, or UAB’s heavily downgraded for getting blown out 32-6 at Louisiana-Monroe, but yardage was nearly even (296-259), and the Blazers lost the turnover battle 3-0. While that wasn’t the best game for long-time Dilfer protege, Jacob Zeno, if he’s healthy, UAB should be able to stay within three touchdowns of Arkansas, who may be looking ahead to the start of the SEC slate next week at Auburn.
Pick: UAB (+23.5, FanDuel)
UConn @ Duke (-16.5, 48)
UConn wasn’t even on the same planet as Maryland in the season opener, likely a result of the Terps’ recruiting improvement over the last few years creating an athletic mismatch with the Huskies. Duke doesn’t have that same type of advantage, and I question whether this year’s Blue Devils have the offensive ceiling to pull away from most teams.
Last year’s blowout came with Riley Leonard at the helm and star tailback Jordan Waters doing the scoring, but Mike Elko’s defense was the key to stretching the lead for an easy cover. All three are long gone, and Duke’s big performance so far this season came in a double-overtime slog with Northwestern - a team not exactly brimming with talent.
This is a more suitable matchup for Jim Mora Jr.’s team, the first of three games with mid-tier ACC teams on their schedule. I had this lined at Duke -12 before considering UConn’s blowout at the hands of the Terps. That result isn’t enough to stop me from taking the points in a game that opened at +17 but seems like it might head in my direction.
Pick: UConn (+16.5, FanDuel)
Vanderbilt @ Georgia State (+10.5, 46)
Vanderbilt’s 2-0, but it might be worth pumping the brakes on the Commodores getting to SEC relevance, or, as the lowest-rated Power-4 team, being all that good. At least until after they have a good result on the road for the first time this season against a team that might give them trouble.
Vandy jumped on Virginia Tech early in Week 1, only to cough up a 17-point lead before winning in overtime. Shutting out Alcorn State doesn’t resonate.
Last week’s win over Chattanooga was too close for the Panthers’ comfort, but I’m more interested in their season opener with Georgia Tech to gauge whether they can compete with a major conference school. The 35-12 loss was somewhat misleading, as Georgia State ran for 150 yards and had numerous offensive trips that should have led to points.
Until proven otherwise, Vanderbilt is a step-down from Georgia Tech. However, against the Panthers, the Yellow Jackets closed -20.5 at home, and Vanderbilt is -10.5 on the road. With four points each way for home-field advantage, this implies the Commodores are within a field goal of the Yellow Jackets and I’m not ready to buy into that.
Pick: Georgia State (+10.5, DraftKings)
UCF @ TCU (PK, 62.0)
Last we got involved with TCU, they were going out of their way not to cover a big spread at Stanford (Week 1 podcast-only play), starting the season with one of the most ridiculous defensive drives of all time, allowing four 3rd-and-extra-long conversions - three on personal foul penalties. They ended the night by getting backdoored, but in-between, they completely dominated the Cardinal (457-286 in total yards). They followed that with last week’s easy tune-up shutout of Long Island.
UCF hasn’t had much in the way of challengers so far this season to help us determine if all those buying into Gus Malzahn’s group are onto something. This is their first look at legit competition, as they’re headed into an evening “Black-out” in Fort Worth.
I have TCU as a 2.5-point favorite but UCF opened -2.5, which made me double-take. The line’s fallen down to a pick’em, but still with a small edge on the home side in what should be a decent environment, I’m OK with forcing KJ Jefferson to prove the UCF hype correct.