We’ve added “cornerback gets hit in the face with pass instead of catching it and returning it for a potential game-winning touchdown” and “blown 21-point lead” to our bad beat files. ECU and TCU turned the best bets from 6-1 (Oh no, Miami (OH)) to 4-3. However, whining about such turns of events is part of the fun (??).
Hoping for no coping after Week 4, let’s look at seven games that leave us wondering if the spread is where it should be.
Houston @ Cincinnati (-3.5, 47.5)
UNLV doesn’t play this weekend, but the Runnin’ Rebels resurgence is a factor in how we look at more than one team that does take the field.
Houston got beaten soundly in August by UNLV in a game that opened at pick’em but saw the Cougars take enough money to stretch the spread up over a field goal. The market did not take too kindly to that, and Houston was a 4-touchdown underdog at Oklahoma, giving them a scare in a 16-12 loss. Being competitive with a SEC team didn’t do much for their rating and they were just -5 against Rice, beating the Owls by 26. The market’s adjusted Willie Fritz’s squad up, but covering by such a big margin in their last two makes you wonder if it’s done so enough.
Cincinnati burned us last week by covering as road favorites over Miami of Ohio, but they managed that despite out-gaining the Redhawks by just 21 yards. Miami were 0-for-2 on fourth down, and lost the turnover battle, but Brett Gabbert throwing for 380 yards on the Bearcats should be a concern for those at Nippert.
We’re still waiting for Cougs’ quarterback, Donovan Smith, to cause problems with his legs, but that’s a wildcard they can play in this game. If Smith does start running well, Houston might be better than their rating, while circumstances are such that Cincinnati has avoided a drop in theirs.
Pick: Houston (+3.5, -106 at Pinnacle)
Kansas @ West Virginia (-2, 57)
The Runnin’ Rebels took down Kansas last Friday night in Lawrence - the Jayhawks’ second loss to what were deemed inferior opponents. At what point do we acknowledge that Kansas just isn’t very good?
The market has rated KU in the mid-60s after closing last year 60/100, but their losses to Illinois (60/100) and UNLV (56/100) suggest they’re no better than an average football team.
Going on the road to West Virginia was supposed to be a trouble spot for Penn State in Week 1, but the Nittany Lions handled Morgantown well. Kansas is not in the same league as Penn State.
Between getting blown out by a national contender and losing the Backyard Brawl last week, the market appears out on the Mountaineers, but they’ll happily run the ball down Kansas’s throat all day. WVU’s defensive shortcomings come against the pass, but the Jayhawks are 103rd in the country in EPA/Play per dropback, compared to Pittsburgh at 37, and Penn State at 3rd.
Pick: West Virginia (-2, at Bet365)
North Carolina State @ Clemson (-19, 44)
Freshman C.J. Bailey will have his hands full in Death Valley, but, if we’re being honest, Grayson McCall wasn’t exactly lighting things up in his first few games with the Wolfpack.
Clemson has played just twice, getting run over by Georgia and then crushing Appalachian State. Given those two results, it’s hard to know where Clemson should be rated, but the market’s got them right back where they were before the season started.
Even if you think that’s fair, to get to this high of a point spread, you’ll have to move N.C. State down from their preseason rating of 71/100 (a darkhorse ACC contender) to barely above-average in all of college football.
When McCall was announced out, this line leapt up over -20, but bettors weighed-in, saying that’s too high.
I’ll trust that Dave Doeren, who’s defenses have had success in the past against Dabo Swinney, will have a plan to use his young quarterback’s raw skill set to stay close enough to cover.
Pick: North Carolina State (+19, -105 at Pinnacle)
Ohio @ Kentucky (-20, 42)
Which version of Kentucky are we supposed to expect on any given week? The edition that got blown out by South Carolina, or the Wildcats that hung with Georgia last Saturday?
I’m here to question whether either version can cover a 3-touchdown spread.
This is the best competition that Ohio’s faced, but their offense has shown it’s capable (400-yard games against Syracuse and South Alabama) without doing anything fancy, gaining most of their yardage on the ground.
With a clock that should be constantly moving, and looking ahead to getting back into SEC play next week, Kentucky should just want to get out of this game with a win of any kind, having seen a MAC school, Toledo, march into SEC country and grab a win last week in Starkville. Kentucky beat the other Group-of-5 opponent on their schedule, Southern Mississippi, 31-0, but unlike the Bobcats, the Eagles don’t do anything well.
Pick: Ohio (+20, at Bet365)
Georgia Tech @ Louisville (-11, 57.5)
If you’re thinking to yourself, “wait, have I seen Louisville play… or anything about the Cardinals this season?”, you’re probably not alone. Their blowout wins of Austin Peay and Jacksonville State weren’t exactly must-watch, nor are they in any way relevant to evaluating the team a year after their best season since even before the Lamar Jackson era.
Last year’s team closed with an estimated market rating of 71/100, right where they are this season. Betting on the Cards means you’re buying them at their most expensive price in years, which is antithetical to value-based betting.
Rarely do we have to wait this long to bet against a team coming off an epic season, but the way Louisville’s schedule has shaken out, it just so happens we get to do so with a team that has done nothing but thrive in the underdog role.
Brent Key’s 2023 squad won as big ‘dogs against Miami, North Carolina, and in their bowl game with UCF, after covering in close losses to Louisville in the opener and Georgia in the regular season finale. Then they opened this season by stunning Florida State. This is where the Yellow Jackets live to be profitable, and we won’t miss an opportunity to back them here.
Pick: Georgia Tech (+11, at Pinnacle)
Miami (OH) @ Notre Dame (-28, 43.5)
Speaking of situations to back the underdog, here come the Irish as a mega-favorite. Two weeks ago, it didn’t go so well in South Bend. Beyond merely winning in uninspiring fashion as expected, Notre Dame took it up a notch and lost to Northern Illinois outright. For those unfamiliar with the various echelons of the MAC, Miami was the preseason favorite in the conference, while Northern Illinois was the fourth choice.
We’ve already referenced the Redhawks’ misfortune against Cincinnati last week, and we recall they also competed with Northwestern. So, while they’re 0-2, we know they’re capable of hanging with Power-conference teams, as long as Gabbert is healthy.
The Irish saved some face last week by beating the brakes off of the Boilermakers, but that’s the point - they’ve rarely gone back-to-back with market-exceeding performances under Marcus Freeman. Winning by even three touchdowns would be impressive, but won’t be enough to cover a number that would have been closer to -20 had the Irish not shown their first bit of explosiveness at Purdue.
Pick: Miami (+28, at BetMGM)
TCU @ SMU (+2.5, 58.5)
We liked TCU last week, partly as a dare to UCF to prove they’re a Big 12 contender, but also because the Horned Frogs seemed undervalued in the marketplace. Then they choked away a 3-TD lead, and now they’re a field goal favorite on the road?
That’s only sensical if you’re WAY out on SMU, who we should have expected to be the one favored by around three. Admittedly, you can see how that might be, since the Mustangs were upset by BYU, and needed a comeback to survive Nevada. However, SMU’s talent is still high, and while TCU peels themselves off their home turf to hit the road, the Mustangs had a bye-week to un-break their offense.
With an in-state rival coming to town, and their first ACC season on deck, here’s hoping the week off did Dallas good, and they don’t just cover as a home ‘dog, but win outright.