CFB Week 4 big game lookahead
Big tests in the Big Ten, a Big 12 battle, and a showdown in the SEC
After two weeks of showing no ”chalance” whatsoever, the state Civil War of Oregon appeared to be all that was needed to kick the Ducks into high-gear. If losing +16.5 on the Beavers means that our preseason positions on Oregon have value again, we’ll take that silver lining.
The good vibes from cruising with Kansas State on Friday night, went away with Tyler Van Dyke was lost for the season on Wisconsin’s first drive. Who knows what would have happened if he played the entire game, but basing a handicap around the Badgers getting functional quarterback play went down the drain, even before Badgers’ runners started fumbling at inopportune times.
As if there’s ever a good time to fumble.
Meanwhile, Washington did everything we thought they might in the Apple Cup:
Out-gained Washington State 9.3-7.2 in yards per play
Balanced attack (326 passing, 126 rushing)
Won turnover battle (1-0)
The problem for U-Dubb?
16 penalties for 135 yards
Four drives that stalled at the Cougars’ 25-yard line or closer for field goals
Hidden yardage and missed opportunities for points cost Washington long before things peaked with a failed Husky 4th-and-goal at the 1-yard line for the game. We’re hoping for better luck in our big game breakdowns, as their results are a far cry from when we pick our most valuable matchups in the Best Bets of the week.
No. 24 Illinois @ No. 22 Nebraska (-7.5, 43)
It may have come as a pleasant surprise to FOX executives that Friday night’s game is a ranked-on-ranked matchup, but when it comes to Nebraska’s rating in the betting market, there were already high expectations for Matt Rhule’s second season in Lincoln. Their 7.5 win-total in the Big Ten suggested a team rating of 69/100. Even after a blowout win of Colorado, we estimate that it’s remained unchanged.
Illinois has seen their rating boosted on the strength of their own short path to a 3-0 record. Before the season, this point spread would have pushed towards two touchdowns, but the Illini got a notable win over Kansas. That came with the help of four Kansas turnovers and a fourth down stop, cancelling out that Illinois accumulated just 271 total yards.
The AP rankings would suggest that this game should be pretty close, but the win over the Jayhawks’ is looking less impressive by the week, and Illinois’ first road game of the season will be a considerably tougher test. Meanwhile, you can poke holes in Nebraska’s resume - with Colorado their lone opponent of any danger - but the difference is their rating hasn’t been artificially boosted, like Illinois’ has.
Pick: Nebraska (-7.5, DraftKings)
No. 11 USC @ No. 18 Michigan (+6, 46.5)
Michigan’s a shadow of their defending-champion former selves. We know this, but so does the betting market, moving Michigan from 10-point favorites in this game during the summer, to opening USC -6.5 this past Sunday. A line comparable to the Texas game two weeks ago.
The Wolverines know that change is needed as well, appearing to shift their offensive philosophy with the recently announced move from ineffective pocket-passer Davis Warren to dual-threat Alex Orji. Sherrone Moore gave his team a chance to play it straight with a traditional offensive system during the non-conference schedule. However, with Big Ten play upon us, Michigan’s ready to challenge teams to a virtual fist fight.
It appears as if the Wolverines will be giving teams a steady dose of Donnovan Edwards, Kalel Mullings, and Orji, starting with USC. Whether that way to play can set Michigan on a path to the playoff or not, it might give them a better chance at staying close with USC on Saturday.
The Trojans are still pretty new to the concept of playing disciplined defense, featuring sturdy tackling. Their last-minute comeback win over LSU came facing a traditional pocket-passer, and not what should be the endless pounding on the ground in Ann Arbor. Defensively, Michigan’s talent can hold up against USC, particularly with a secondary loaded with top-end talent, but they’ll be helped by keeping the Trojans’ offense on the sideline.
USC’s capable of getting to the conference championship game, but there couldn’t be a bigger “welcome to the Big Ten” situation than going into ‘The Big House’ to face a ground-and-pound attack with something to prove.
Pick: Michigan (+6, at Pinnacle)
No. 12 Utah @ No. 14 Oklahoma St. (+2.5, 54)
If you got caught up in reporting - real, or like Deion Sanders did otherwise - Cam Rising went from out for a week, to out for the season, and back again. As a result, Oklahoma State opened as 2.5-point favorites, but when it was reported that Rising will be fine to play this weekend, the line flipped to Utah being favored.
Though the big question is, “Is the line done moving in favor of Utah?”.
Utah was the preseason favorite in the Big 12, so we might see this line tick up with more confidence in Rising’s availability. If the line eventually gets to -3, that will be the buy-point for taking the Cowboys, who’ve been tested against Arkansas, and have beaten their other opponents with ease.
Pick: Wait, hoping for Oklahoma State (+3)
No. 6 Tennessee @ No. 15 Oklahoma (+7, 57.5)
Tennessee’s the fun team. We’re just as guilty as anyone - holding a ticket on the Volunteers at +2500 from the podcast, and beating the market before an adjustment to shorter odds.
Along with their “Q” rating, Rocky Top’s market rating has been raised as well, because they’re willing to annihilate the weaker teams they’ve played. But is Oklahoma notably weaker?
Coming into the season, Tennessee and Oklahoma had a similar rating, but the Vols’ dismantling of North Carolina State and a defense that appears as scary as their offense, has triggered their inclusion in the upper echelon nationally.
Oklahoma’s start to the season has been decidedly less inspiring on offense, as they stalled out after two early touchdowns against Houston, barely surviving an upset bid from the Cougars. However, Brent Venables‘ defense has been solid, which gives them a chance against Nico Iamaleava.
Jackson Arnold and the Oklahoma offense will have to play their best game to win, but we’re not asking the Sooners to pull off the upset, and neither has a betting market that recognized the opening line of +7.5 was too high. With the spread still at a full touchdown, the home underdogs are worth a bet in Norman on Saturday night.