CFB Week 5: Big game lookahead
A live-betting look and why the work is already done on Georgia-Alabama
Price matters. It’s one of the things about sports betting that will always matter.
Last week, amidst the “Will he, or won’t he?” drama of whether Utah’s star quarterback, Cam Rising, would play, we talked about betting Oklahoma State only if +3 became available. It never did.
Rumors were swirling before our big game lookahead was posted, but at the time it seemed more likely Rising would start, and we hoped that announcement would lead to a line move, making Utah 3-point favorite.
Then rumors re-swirled, and the Cowboys became a favorite of just shy of a field goal, and the line eventually settled at around pick’em before Rising was ruled out, as the market finally shrugged its shoulders and figured they’d just settle it on the field.
Naturally, Utah was the team that took a comfortable lead, only to see Oklahoma State come back just enough for the Utes to win by that original 3-point margin we worried about.
Of course, when it comes to on-field handicapping, it helps to have a better understanding of whether a team’s quarterback is capable of handling big-game pressure, which was not the case down the road in Norman, where Jackson Arnold flopped so badly that he had to be pulled in Oklahoma’s loss to Tennessee.
It all just goes to show that you have stay disciplined with the number you’re hoping to play in the big games of the week. Even if that means getting the best of the number weeks ahead of time, as we did for Week 5’s showcase event.
No. 20 Oklahoma State @ No. 23 Kansas State (-5, 55)
With losses last week, both of these Big 12 teams are clinging to ranked-ness, but since one of them is taking a second conference loss this week - a likely death blow to their Big 12 title chances - then this is definitely a big game.
Even though it came against a team perceived to be worse than Utah - the Big 12 favorite, I’m more willing to excuse Kansas State’s road loss at BYU, versus Oklahoma State losing at home to the Utes’ backup quarterback.
The Wildcats out-gained BYU 367-249, and were running all over the Cougars early. However, they had to settle for a pair of field goals, and then things got weird.
Starting from 1:08 left in the second quarter, and for the next six minutes of play, K-State:
Allowed a fumble-return touchdown
Threw an interception that turned into a 2-play, 29-yard touchdown drive
Threw another interception that turned into a 2-play, 27-yard touchdown drive
Allowed a wild 57-yard punt return touchdown
That’s a rough few minutes of football, and cost them the game, but it’s not reflective of the Wildcats’ quality. However, it has come with a considerable downgrade in the betting market. Two weeks ago, K-State handled Arizona with ease at home, covering -7. With how they’re being rated in this game, the point spread for a rematch would have been KSU -4.
In Stillwater, the Cowboys gave up 456 yards to the Utes. Over half of which came on the ground. The scoreboard says it was a 3-point margin, but in opposite fashion to K-State’s result, the final was very misleading, creating all the value to back the favorite in Manhattan.
Pick: Kansas State (-5, -105 at Pinnacle)
No. 15 Louisville @ No. 16 Notre Dame (-6.5, 48)
Louisville was probably lucky to cover last week, returning a blocked field goal to take a 2-score lead, but a competitive game was expected given it was the Cardinals’ first legitimate test. Now they go on the road to face Notre Dame, almost a year after their biggest win - taking down the Irish on the way to their best season since joining the ACC.
The Cardinals aren’t required to win by margin, or even at all, as Louisville provides Notre Dame the toughest defensive challenge they’ve seen since their opener in College Station.
Since then, it’s been a tumultuous season for the Irish, mixing in massive upset at the hands of Northern Illinois with an annihilation of Purdue, and this game marks the end of Notre Dame’s first of three segments to their season, with a bye on deck.
Jeff Brohm’s group was able to shut down the Irish run game last season, giving up just 44 rush yards on 28 attempts. Look for the Cards to have similar success, forcing Riley Leonard to beat them, something he couldn’t do at Duke last year when he went 9-for-23 and 121 yards in a shutout loss.
Pick: Louisville (+6.5, -115 at FanDuel)
No. 19 Illinois @ No. 9 Penn State (-17.5, 47.5)
Illinois’ overtime win at Nebraska was big for a program battling to get up into the conversation with the top-tier. Perhaps we’re not giving the Illini enough credit, but this is a game that was projected to be around -24 before the season started. At the very least, Penn State’s rating hasn’t changed, so the drop in point spread is entirely based on Illinois’ uprising.
As we know, Penn State “signs up for 60 minutes” - meaning they’re content to score in the final minutes of an already decided game.
The Nittany Lions are more of a finished product, but they have a recent history of starting somewhat slow. Here are their first quarter scores against comparable opponents in the last two seasons:
2023
6-0 vs. Illinois (30-13 final score)
3-0 vs. Iowa (31-0)
3-3 vs. Northwestern (41-13)
7-7 vs. Indiana (33-24)
14-0 vs. Maryland (51-15)
0-3 vs. Rutgers (27-6)
3-0 vs. Michigan State (42-0)
2024
0-0 vs. West Virginia (34-12)
7-10 vs. Bowling Green (34-27)
That’s a combined 43-23 (4.7-2.5 per game) in first quarters and 280-87 (31.1-9.7 per game) in the final three.
Illinois is a good enough team to hang with Penn State for a quarter or two, but that will only drop the live point spread. One that’s starting from a point of theoretical value on Penn State. There should be a point after the opening stanza where you can bet on the Nittany Lions after they take the best of what Illinois has to offer.
Advice: Aim to bet Penn State live after the first quarter at two touchdowns or fewer
No. 2 Georgia @ No. 4 Alabama (+2, 48.5)
Given Georgia’s poor record against Alabama (yes, under Nick Saban), this is the biggest game of the season for the Bulldogs. Unlike past years, the Bulldogs don’t have to win this game to make the College Football Playoff or win the National Championship. However, for us, it’s still the game to get most excited for in this first month of the season, and maybe for the entirety of the season.
The issue is, we’ve already done the work on getting the best of the number for this game. If you read the SEC season preview a month ago, you know that all the prominent sportsbooks had Georgia -3.5 as the lookahead line in their “Game of the Year” offerings. Knowing that the Bulldogs’ rating, as national title favorite, was as high as it could go, we locked in the Crimson Tide getting more than a field goal.
Their tests have been minimal, but Alabama’s impressed just as much as Georgia, with a beatdown of Wisconsin in Madison, compared to Georgia pulling away from Clemson on a neutral site (and a dicey effort at Kentucky). The line dropping under a field goal is appropriate and expected, for a game that Alabama has a good chance to win outright, even without Saban at the helm. We saw last year that Kalen DeBoer can get his guys ready for a big game, beating Oregon twice and Texas in CFP semifinal.
Pick: Holding a ticket on Alabama at +3.5, per SEC season preview
Washington State @ No. 25 Boise State (-8, 65)
We rarely acknowledge an unranked team versus a hanger-on in the rankings as a big game, but Washington State - left for dead by the former members of the PAC-12 - are still undefeated with a few quality wins, and a workable schedule going forward to make a reasonable claim for an at-large bid to the CFP. Meanwhile, Boise State’s competing with the rest of the Group-of-5 for their lone reserved spot in the Playoff, and a second loss would almost definitely crush their hopes.
By my calculations, a spread this high doesn’t give Washington State any credit for what they’ve done so far this season, relative to their preseason rating (62/100). Meanwhile, Boise State has seen their rating go from 59 to 68, seemingly just on the strength of a close game with Oregon at a time when the Ducks weren’t exactly firing on all cylinders.
The Broncos best chance to win by two possessions is by having Ashton Jeanty cook, but the Cougars have been fine in defending the run.
Overall, Washington State’s EPA/Play numbers are as impressive, if not slightly better, compared to the Broncos. Maybe the market likes Boise because they come in more rested, and the Cougars barely escaped another Mountain West team - San Jose State - last week, but at more than a touchdown, I’ll bet John Mateer and company keep it close on the blue turf.