CFB Week 5 betting: The “Saturday 7”
Picking out the “Best of the Best” bets on the oddsboard
It was the first losing week for our “Best of the Best” in Week 4 - where we get to pick and choose where the value lies before a college football Saturday. But, like you might see in the 80’s combat movie by the same name, a kick did the most damage. After beating the market by betting Georgia Tech +11 and seeing it close under 10, this Yellow Jackets’ field goal attempt led to our demise and 4-3 became 3-4.
No. 22 BYU @ Baylor (-3.5, 45.5)
Kalani Sitake did it again. The Cougars pulled off an improbably upset last Saturday night, moving to 4-0 on the season. Even if it was done with a flurry of big plays, knocking off a really good Kansas State team came shortly after Dave Aranda’s Bears coughed up a win in Boulder to Team Prime Time. It was a perfect contrast in coaching capability that now gets to play out between the lines.
Both teams have seen their rating move up, but what have the Bears done to earn that? A drubbing over a poor Air Force team?
BYU is 27th nationally in Net EPA/Play, while the Bears are 77th. So not only do they have the better record, more impressive wins, but also the stats back up that they’re the better team. Meanwhile, they should also be in the better headspace after last week.
Without any indication that these teams are equals, Baylor giving over a field goal thanks to home-field advantage is a stretch, so backing Sitake’s team as an underdog is again the smart move.
Pick: BYU (+3.5, -118 at FanDuel)
Northern Illinois @ North Carolina State (-7, 47)
No one likes to admit it, because it’s way more fun to poke at Dabo Swinney, but Clemson might be really good.
Those of us holding tickets on the Tigers to make the CFP are totally cool with that.
I dole out that hypothesis because I’m not quite ready to quit North Carolina State, and want to excuse blowouts at Clemson and to Tennessee as simply getting overwhelmed by a national title contender.
Despite an upset win at Notre Dame, Northern Illinois showed that there was a reason they were 4-touchdown underdogs in South Bend, by following it with a home loss to Buffalo.
Before the season, this line would have been up over three touchdowns, but the Huskies’ increase in rating along with the Wolfpack going from 71/100 down to merely an average college football team (50/100) has created some conceptual value on NC State.
Of course, that value has to be realized by Dave Doeren’s club playing better. The Wolfpack saved some face with five touchdowns after getting blasted 28-0 in the first quarter by the Tigers. It was important for freshman quarterback, CJ Bailey, to get reps against good competition. Truthfully, Clemson’s second string are better than Northern Illinois’ starters.
Returning home offers the Wolfpack a chance to get right before a string of games against comparable competition. Needing to only to win by a touchdown, we’ll trust Doeren can get that message across.
Pick: North Carolina State (-7, Bet365)
Arkansas vs. No. 24 Texas A&M (-4, 52.5)
It’s not even October yet and there’s already more than a handful of head-scratchers when you look back the win totals from before the season. In the SEC, Texas A&M (8.57) and Tennessee (8.61) had similar ratings. We’ve seen the Vols’ take off while the Aggies lost their opener with Notre Dame, and couldn’t pull away from Bowling Green. As a result, A&M’s rating has fallen off with Connor Weigman missing the last two games, and not quite ready to go for this Saturday.
The Razorbacks’ rating has improved, but I’m not sure that’s all that deserved. Arkansas was a 10-point underdog to Oklahoma State at one point leading up to that game, followed that with a tight home win over UAB, and then got out-gained by Auburn last week but won on the road because the Tigers turned it over five times.
Dual-threat backup, Marcel Reed, can do enough to keep the Aggies’ offense functional, and the best unit on the field should be Mike Elko’s A&M defense. Even applying a downgrade to Texas A&M and an upgrade to Arkansas, I still can’t get down to just a 4-point spread. Showing a couple points of value, on a team I was higher on before the season, is enough for me to back the Aggies as a favorite on an alleged neutral field in Dallas.
Pick: Texas A&M (-4, Bet365)
Liberty @ Appalachian State (+3.5, 61)
Liberty’s been doing a “comeback kids” sort of thing early this season, going down 17-0 early last week before outlasting East Carolina, and needing a two touchdowns in the final six minutes to win at lowly New Mexico State. The Flames metrics are considerably worse than last year’s edition that went to the Fiesta Bowl. We saw what happened in their toughest game on a soft schedule.
While Appalachian State is nowhere near Oregon, they qualify as the toughest game on Liberty’s schedule this season, and are coming off an embarrassing loss. The metrics calculators hated the Mountaineers getting blown out by South Alabama, especially after they were crushed by Clemson.
We have a rare situation in September where teams facing each other already have a common opponent. App State also had a comeback win over ECU, but they had to do so on the road, when the Pirates still had NFL-ready cornerback prospect, Shevon Revel Jr., who had a pick-6 in that game, only to tear his ACL in practice days later.
There’s not enough to choose between these two teams for Liberty to be favored by over a field goal on the road, and the Flames propensity for slow starts my come back to haunt them in Boone, North Carolina - a place where more than a few season’s with high hopes have gone to die.
Pick: Appalachian State (+3.5, Bet365)
Eastern Michigan @ Kent State (+14, 46.5)
If you were thinking that we hadn’t gotten particularly as gross as we have been known to in the past, well, do I have something for you.
My current market rating for Kent State is four.
Out of 100.
That’s basically a “reverse Georgia.”
If the Golden Flashes (or anyone else) wanted to avoid an historically bad rating, my advice would be to stop scheduling road games at Tennessee (71-0) and Penn State (56-0). Of course, the naysayers would also recommend not losing at home to St. Francis.
Kent State lost two quarterbacks for the season in State College, but Tommy Ulatowski played a fair amount last season, including on the road at Eastern Michigan. While the Flashes won by two touchdowns, they out-gained the Eagles 343-218.
EMU’s rating has ticked up this season, but this is more about seeing Kent State’s rock-bottom rating and, almost by policy, having to buy a team at the lowest rating imaginable. Especially given this is a considerable step down in opponent quality, and at home.
Pick: Kent State (+14)
UTSA @ East Carolina (-3.5, 56.5)
We’ve talked about it from the other side of things, above, but East Carolina’s sandwiched back-to-back close losses with an injury to their best player.
How that will affect the Pirates going into conference play is unknown, but it can’t be a good thing that they’ve been outscored 56-13 in the final three quarters of their last two games, while not getting the quarterback play out of former Miami Hurricane, Jake Garcia, that they’d hoped for.
UTSA has taken a step back from the really good Roadrunners teams of recent years, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they couldn’t handle the offensive firepower of Texas and Texas State.
In this matchup though, UTSA’s the team with the potential to score, since they can take advantage of ECU missing their star cornerback.
Applying a personal downgrade of ECU, back to where they were last year, brings this line down under a field goal, indicating there was value on the Roadrunners at +4, but still at +3.5 after it was bet on Wednesday.
Pick: UTSA (+3.5, BetMGM)
No. 8 Oregon @ UCLA (+25.5, 55.5)
When last we tried to fade Oregon, they took an 8-point halftime lead at Oregon State and turned that into a 35-point win. The Ducks closed -19 that day.
UCLA has a similar market rating to the Beavers, which is why they were such big underdogs to LSU last week, but the Bruins are getting a full touchdown more than Oregon State did two weeks ago.
Given UCLA hung around with a potent offense in Baton Rouge, they’ve at least seen the type of firepower they’ll be up against late on Saturday night.
Even with a downgrade to UCLA relative to the market before the season, I only have Oregon favored by three touchdowns. With +26 available at prominent sportsbook, I’ll take UCLA to not get embarrassed at home in the Rose Bowl.