CFB Week 7 betting: The “Saturday 7”

Field goal faves, big ‘dogs, and getting suckered in the SEC??

Oct 11, 2024

Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.

A 4-3 Saturday doesn’t sound like a roller-coaster of emotion, but anyone telling you an 0-3 start - to what believed to be the best bets of the week - isn’t cause for consternation, bordering on panic, is lying to you. However, as we learned in high school finite math class, W’s and L’s aren’t always distributed even in a sample size of seven. Sometimes all the losses come in the afternoon, and then you can’t lose after the sun goes down. Go figure.

Washington @ Iowa (-3, 41.5)

If you think of sports betting like the stock market, like we try to do, sometimes you target a stock that you want to both buy and sell, hoping back and forth to accumulate profit.

Washington is that team for me. With a win total of 6.5, the expectation for the Huskies is for them to win about as many games as they lose, particularly against similarly-rated opponents, so why not expect them to be both buy- and sell-worthy.

After selling Washington two weeks ago at Rutgers and buying them last week, we’re back to sell-mode this Saturday on the road in Iowa City.

After betting Iowa at +20 early in the week leading up to the Ohio State game, the Hawkeyes closed +17.5, indicating that there was some hope for the yellow and black. That seemed warranted with a 7-0 halftime score, but the game got away from them in the second half due to Cade McNamara being overwhelmed by Buckeyes’ pass-rush pressure, once Iowa felt the need to throw to come back. Losing 35-7 seems to have sent the Iowa market rating down below the Huskies’, who’ve seen their rating bumped up with the win over Michigan.

The Huskies have been good at defending the pass by EPA/Play, but allowing over five yards per carry to the Scarlet Knights and Wolverines isn’t a good sign, as they’re 50th in EPA/Play versus the rush. That’s not going to play well on the road, and if the college kids from Seattle are looking forward to a week off, with their bye week on deck, they’ll be in for a rude awakening against Kaleb Johnson - one of the best tailbacks in the country.

Pick: Iowa (-2.5, -118 at Pinnacle)

Stanford @ No. 11 Notre Dame (-23.5, 45)

Lather, rinse, repeat - we fade Notre Dame at a big number.

You’ll recall from cashing tickets with Northern Illinois (won outright) and Miami of Ohio (lingered for three quarters), this point spread is just shy of where it was for a pair of games against decent-at-best MAC teams.

This line might be fair based on power ratings, but it comes down to what Stanford is capable of and how Notre Dame plays. The Irish are run-first with a mobile quarterback threat. Exactly the type of team that Stanford saw last week when they faced Virginia Tech.

The defense held up OK, but backup quarterback Justin Lamson hurt the Cardinal with a fumble near the goal line and an interception. Starting quarterback, Ashton Daniels, who was at helm when Stanford won at Syracuse, should be back this week, but if not, Lamson having a game under his belt is helpful.

If Troy Taylor’s group can extend a few more drives and hit the occasional big play via Daniels’ legs or their capable skill position players, they should stay within three touchdowns.

Pick: Stanford (+23.5, Bet365)

Louisville @ Virginia (+7, 54.5)

The market refuses to give up on Louisville, pushing this line up to 7.5 before seeing buyback on the Cavaliers. That first move went the opposite direction I’d have expected after the Cardinals lost at home to SMU after bettors moved Louisville up to a converted touchdown in that game as well.

Virginia stormed back to beat Boston College last week, and are suddenly 4-1 on the season, with just one poor result - a home loss to Maryland that was closer than the scoreboard indicates.

Yardage was even, but UVA lost the turnover battle 4-0!

Once Louisville started playing legitimate teams three weeks ago, they’ve barely escaped Georgia Tech, and then looked sloppy at Notre Dame before last week’s loss to the Mustangs. Yet, the Cardinals’ rating in the market appears not to change.

I have Virginia a little better than their preseason rating, while the Cardinals deserve to get dinged from their initial expectation. That translates to a line shorter than seven, so there’s value still on the Cavs.

Pick: Virginia (+7.5, -115 at Bet365)

California @ No. 22 Pittsburgh (-3, 59.5)

Sometimes you don’t need to overcomplicate things.

California was up late last Saturday, blowing a 20-point lead to Miami in one of the biggest games in the last 30 years in Berkeley. Now the Golden Bears have to go across country to face a team just as offensively dangerous as the Hurricanes.

It’s true, averaging over 300 yards per game, freshman Eli Holstein is putting up big numbers for the undefeated Panthers.

We’ll give the Bears credit for riding the early momentum from a big day on campus to take that big lead on Miami, but they’re also one of the few teams to lose to Florida State - their last trip back east as part of their new ACC schedule.

The Panthers should be able to take care of the wounded Bears so we’ll lay just over a field with a team that can score with anyone outside of the upper crust of college football.

Pick: Pittsburgh (-3)

Arkansas State @ Texas State (-14, 64)

The Fun Belt has already gone off the rails this season, with South Alabama blowing out Appalachian State, then going to Arkansas State and losing to the Red Wolves. James Madison (famous for hanging 70 on North Carolina) lost to Louisiana-Monroe last week. Meanwhile, Texas State rallied back from losing to Sam Houston State to beat Troy. The Sun Belt is all over the map.

Arkansas State, after being served up as fodder to Michigan and Iowa State in back-to-back weeks, which has hurt their defensive metrics, they showed enough defense to slow down Gio Lopez in beating the Jaguars.

Why can’t they slow the Bobcats just enough to give their own capable quarterback, sophomore Jaylen Raynor, a chance to stay inside a number that is built off of a market rating for Texas State considerably higher than before the season, despite results that haven’t always come with it.

Pick: Arkansas State (+14)

Florida @ No. 8 Tennessee (-14.5, 55.5)

Sucker bet #1:

I’ll be the sucker to walk right into an ornery Volunteers team in Neyland Stadium, after they let one slip away at Arkansas last week. However, I think value has more to do with Florida than Tennessee.

I think Florida is good. They’re just not going to win many games this season because of the much-talked-about difficulty of their schedule. For us to win this bet, they don’t have to win this game either.

We won with the Gators last week, as they dominated Central Florida after we identified Florida as more than capable of winning a game against a mid-level program.

This is a big step-up, of course, which makes it feels like we’re getting trapped into something, but the line is fair, based on preseason ratings. The reason to like Florida is that they’ve found a balance with their 2-quarterback system to the point where they’ve only had six incomplete passes in the last two games. With more offensive confidence than when they lost handily to Miami in the opener and to SEC standings-leader Texas A&M, there’s hope for Florida to be competitive in the tough games on their slate.

Pick: Florida (+14.5)

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (-13.5, 46)

Sucker bet #2:

Following Vanderbilt’s upset of Alabama, we’re supposed to recognize a “letdown spot” for the Commodores’ trip to Lexington. However, at least when it comes to quarterback Diego Pavia, he’s won as a 3-touchdown underdog twice before and followed that with a win the next week as a favorite.

That’s not what’s required here, and it’s heartening for Vandy fans to know that last week’s win wasn’t all that fluky. They had knocked off Virginia Tech in Week 1, and already had a spread-covering performance in a similarly lined game to this, at Missouri. Finally, a look at the box score shows the ‘Dores out-gaining Alabama and running for 166 yards on the Crimson Tide. It’s entirely possible Clark Lea’s group is just kinda good.

Assigning Vandy a nationally average rating of 50/100 would make this point spread fair against a Kentucky team who’s done their own damage this season, but if you think Pavia and the Commodores are better than that - and there’s little reason not to - then there’s value on backing them against the spread again this week.