CFB Week 7: Big game lookahead
College Football’s bangers-only Saturday features valuable underdogs
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
You can’t go pumpkin picking.
College Football won’t allow it.
We thought last week’s mediocre list of “big games” provided a chance to maybe take the afternoon off, and truthfully, we weren’t wrong. Our list of the biggest games of the day weren’t all that interesting (won or lost), and most self-respecting patches would have long been closed by the time Alabama was in serious trouble, Tennessee sleep-walked through Arkansas, Minnesota stunned USC, and most pumpkin pickers were tuckered out and long asleep by the time Miami stormed back to avoid what seemed like a sure upset at Cal.
We can only hope that this week - a Saturday circled on the calendar since the summer - brings the same early autumn heat, as each network seemingly has their own mega-game they’re promoting this week.
No. 4 Penn State @ USC (+5.5, 50.5)
Before the season, this game would have been lined at a field goal, and it might come as a surprise that I have these teams rated the same as back then.
Penn State’s undefeated, but their best wins - over West Virginia, Illinois and UCLA - have come against teams that aren’t within a touchdown of USC in the betting market. This is clearly their toughest test thus far, and a point spread creeping towards a touchdown indicates that either they’re getting credit for moving up the AP rankings (do you believe Penn State is the fourth-best team in the country?), or USC’s being downgraded from where they were rated in the summer.
Tellingly, prior to last week, when the Trojans were 8.5-point favorites at Minnesota, the market had USC rated equal to where they were before the season. There have been ups - a season-opening win over LSU, and there had been downs - losing to Michigan.
Side note: Applying home-field advantage, USC was considered 13.5 points better than Minnesota and now they’re 10.5 points worse than Penn State. Which means the Nittany Lions would be 24 points better than the Golden Gophers. There’s no way that Penn State’s a 3-touchdown favorite at Minnesota when they play in late November.
The Trojans lost at Minnesota last week, and now their two losses look bad compared to Penn State’s 5-0 record, but against both the Wolverines and Golden Gophers, USC had a fourth quarter lead. In each game, they lost the turnover battle, and were run on heavily. However, that can be attributed to both those teams being able to only do that.
Michigan: 104th in dropback EPA/Play
Minnesota: 115th in dropback EPA/Play
Penn State will be relying on their run game as well, as they still haven’t developed Drew Allar as a deep passing threat against weaker competition. The Nittany Lions’ defense will be getting their toughest test, as Miller Moss and the weapons around him are far scarier than what they faced in Morgantown - their previous most challenging road game this season.
Pick: USC (+5.5)
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (+14.5, 49.5)
The Ferris Wheel will be spinning, as will the cotton candy machines at the Texas State Fair, but we’ll be throwing out the record books for the traditional Red River Rivalry.
The Longhorns were favored by 8.5 in summer lookahead “Game of the Year” lines, so 14.5 is a significant adjustment that’s based more on a drop in perception of the Sooners than it is being impressed by Texas’s run of (Michigan excepted) walkover matchups against mid-tier Group-of-5 teams. The only thing we know about the Longhorns is that they’re very good. That’s not news, and how good they are will be determined during the SEC schedule.
Oklahoma found out the hard way that Jackson Arnold isn’t it when it’s time to play the big games, as he was benched at halftime against Tennessee. There’s definitely been some growing pains for Michael Hawkins Jr., but the freshman quarterback makes plays, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has been an explosive threat on the ground, with a nose for the end zone.
With a bye week to get Hawkins more prepared for the scene in the Cotton Bowl in his hometown of Dallas, Oklahoma can play the defense and ball-control game to hang around in a game where more than a few underdogs have spoiled undefeated seasons over the years, on both sides.
Pick: Oklahoma (+14.5)
No. 9 Ole Miss @ No. 13 LSU (+3.5, 63.5)
“Bangers-only Saturday” would have to include a game in Baton Rouge, and if Ole Miss wins in Death Valley, I’m going to be thoroughly impressed.
The Tigers have been downgraded from where they were before the season (when they would have been a 3-point favorite here), thanks to that Week 1 loss to USC, and the subsequent loss of defensive standout Harold Perkins. Meanwhile, Ole Miss seems to have gotten off scot-free from their home loss to Kentucky, making them the team required to win by more than a field goal.
The worst thing the Rebels do defensively is their pass defense on dropbacks (33rd in EPA/Play nationally), so Garrett Nussmeier should have the opportunity to keep up with Ole Miss offensively. Maybe not to the production-level of Jayden Daniels from last year’s 55-49 Ole Miss win in Oxford, but he may not need as much if Jaxson Dart can’t greatly improve on a 19/34, touchdown-less performance from 2022 in Death Valley.
Pick: LSU (+3)
No. 2 Ohio State @ No. 3 Oregon (+3.5, 53.5)
We’ve won two “Game of the Year” bets made in this space or on the podcast this summer, where we gleefully basked in beating the market.
Alabama (+3.5) over Georgia, when it closed Alabama +2
Clemson (+3.5) over Florida State, when it closed Clemson -14.5
Neither line ended up mattering, as both Alabama and Clemson covered the closing line as well.
In turn, it’s only fair if we reference getting the worst of the number in our third and final lookahead line foray, as we’re holding Oregon PK tickets, and they’re now 3.5-point ‘dogs. We’re hoping what line we get doesn’t matter again for our final spread bet made before the season.
What’s changed to move the line away from our position?
Both teams are undefeated, but Oregon had a slow start with Idaho and Boise State keeping their interest into the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Ohio State has swept away each opponent before the final frame, have the best EPA numbers in the country, and have a breakout star in freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith. As a result, the Buckeyes’ already-high rating has ticked up while the majority of the other national title contenders have taken a hit to their reputation with a more challenging early-season slate.
In their last three games, the Ducks have been Buckeye-esque, cleaning out their opponent by three touchdowns or more, so, should there rating downgrade still be applied?
It’s a standard move, but fading a team who’s played a soft schedule that now goes on the road against a national contender and is giving them points is the only way to look. The line got as high as +4.5 early in the week, and I’ve doubled down on our preseason play of Oregon at pick’em. With bets on the Ducks for the Big Ten championship and national title (that would considerably increase in value with an Oregon win), I’m comfortable advocating for Oregon at +3 or better for those who aren’t invested yet.