CFB Week 8 betting: Big game lookahead
A pair of SEC showdowns are a cut above the rest of Saturday’s slate
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
“Bangers-only Saturday” did not disappoint.
There were four games that stood out above the rest in Week 7, and while we look at each game individually to get to a bet, taking all the underdogs proved profitable. Especially deploying a rare double-down on our preseason position (in the Big Ten preview) on Oregon to beat the Buckeyes.
This week, the volume for big games isn’t there like it was with a quartet of doozies, but what if I told you that the four highest-rated teams in the SEC are on two separate fields slugging it out to get ahead in the most competitive conference in college football?
No. 7 Alabama @ No. 11 Tennessee (+3, 56)
Both of these teams have put in performances unbecoming of our expectations of them in the last two weeks. Alabama dropped their much-ballyhooed visit to Vanderbilt, but shortly thereafter, Tennessee didn’t put away Arkansas when they had the chance. The very next week, as the betting market expected a bounce back for both, the Crimson Tide (-21) barely edged South Carolina in Tuscaloosa, and the Volunteers (-14) again couldn’t put away Florida, needing overtime to survive the Gators.
Going into this game, the question is, “Which team is more equipped to cure their issues?”.
Alabama’s problems have been defensive in nature. Allowing a team - even one as good as Georgia - to comeback from 28-0 to take the lead is indicative of that. Meanwhile, Jalen Milroe, while still explosive, has proven susceptible to the same mistakes that frustrated Nick Saban last year. Neither seems like a quick fix for Kalen DeBoer.
Who would have thought that, in mid-October, we’d be complaining about the Tennessee offense?
The Vols have been scoreless in their last two first halves.
Against Arkansas, they only had four first-half possessions, having to punt on all four. Three punts were due to sacks, and one because of an offensive face mask penalty.
In the first half against the Gators, the Vols’ five drives went as follows:
7-play drive ended on Nico Iamaleava fumble
Stalled on holding penalty on 2nd-and-7
Stalled on three consecutive sacks
Punt
7-play drive ended on Iamaleava interception
Offensive line protection issues have been the biggest problem for Tennessee. How can they clean that up in a week? Game plan.
With Iamaleava’s mobility and star running back Dylan Sampson, the Vols should present the same kind of problems in decision-making for the Bama defense that dual-threats Diego Pavia and LaNorris Sellers have, will out-gaining the Tide.
Last year, the Vols out-gained Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and, with a couple small tweaks, they should be able to again at home. This year, with a much-improved defense that’s been occasionally dominant, they’re primed to put the last few weeks past them and win as a short underdog.
The Alabama rating should have dropped from their recent performances, but making them the favorite means the betting market has dropped the Vols more than the Tide, creating value on Tennessee as well.
Pick: Tennessee (+3, at DraftKings)
No. 5 Georgia @ No. 1 Texas (-3.5, 56.5)
Georgia gets another chance at a signature road win. Had they not allowed Alabama to get out to a 28-0 lead, they might already have one.
It was surprising to see the Bulldogs not ready to play in the first quarter in Tuscaloosa, given they had a bye week to prepare. Kirby Smart, with time to get his team lathered up, is scary.
That loss by Georgia and subsequent non-covers as a big favorite have hurt the Bulldogs’ market rating just enough to move the line across a field goal. However, two unimpressive wins might be the result of Smart being fully aware that, because of the Alabama loss, the Bulldogs need to win this game to prevent being all-but-eliminated from SEC title contention and even playoff consideration. You wouldn’t blame Georgia for looking ahead.
In a rough scheduling spot, the Longhorns had the Red River Rivalry to prepare for last week. As much as they were 2-touchdown favorites, that game in the Cotton Bowl is one that Texas puts a lot of sweat equity into. The saving grace is that a loss this week doesn’t end Texas’s big-picture hopes, as they can run the table, still make it to Atlanta and then the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma (84th in EPA/Play per drop back) and Michigan (104th) provided good defensive tests for Quinn Ewers and Texas, but what neither team had was an offense that could functionally pass the ball. Carson Beck and Georgia have the ability to test the Longhorns in ways they’ve not experience since losing to Washington in the CFP semi-final last year. At the very least, getting the hook with Texas is enough for a bet in a game the Bulldogs could win outright.
Pick: Georgia (+3.5)
CFP Projection Update
Before the season, I projected out the College Football Playoff using a combination of realistic expectations based on how betting markets perceived all the teams, combined with our high hopes for the teams we bet on to either win their conference or find their way in via an at-large bid.
Halfway through the regular season, let’s check in on those projections, using AP rankings to see where we’re at and how we’re doing.
You may notice that despite our bet on Texas A&M at 25-1 to win the SEC, and their current position in first place in the standings at 3-0, we’ll succumb to “realism” by projecting Texas and Georgia in the first and fifth seed, flip-flopping them from before the season. All with the understanding that if Georgia wins, they’ll be flipped right back, with the Aggies looming.
Conference futures on Oregon (+220), Miami (+440) and Iowa State (+1000) are in good shape, with the goal being just to get those teams (and Texas A&M) into the conference title games. At that point, we can hold our position and do nothing (saving ourselves a bet on the game itself), take our equity and bet the other side, or shoot for a middle if our team is favored in the game.
In the Group-of-5, Texas State (+240) and Bowling Green (+550) have seen their chances improve (while South Florida and Wyoming’s season have tanked). The smaller conferences don’t have headliner matchups like the big boys, but come November, there will be some games that are just as big to them as anything happening in the SEC.
There’s still a long way to go, but in the second half of the regular season, the games that matter to our futures positions matter more than a ranked-on-ranked game between conference opponents with little chance to cash bettors any futures tickets, like Michigan-Illinois.
For more of a breakdown of the college football betting markets, including a breakdown of how to bet on Notre Dame this season, check out THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast.