I don’t think the College Football Playoff committee orders the teams the same way if this was another year of a 4-team playoff.
A refresher:
Without looking at historical precedent, there hasn’t been many, if any, scenarios where a team who just lost their conference championship game and was then included in the top-4 of the College Football Playoff rankings, and definitely none when that team had just suffered their second loss.
The point?
Given what we know about the politics involved, I don’t think 1-loss (even to Northern Illinois) Notre Dame gets left out of a 4-team playoff in favor of Penn State. Because the order of 5-8 mattered little, Penn State got extra credit for playing in a conference championship game to set something of a precedent.
Why else would Ohio State (having won in Happy Valley) be ranked below PSU?
The Texas question would have been the big debate heading into that Sunday morning - “Can you lose twice to your only playoff-quality opponent and still make the Playoff?”
Why rehash a fake argument for a non-existent situation? Because it’s worth wondering how the new 12-team format has affected the perception of both teams, beyond the obvious element that Ohio State’s infamous loss to Michigan likely would have kept them out.
(7) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State (-8, 45.5)
Monday, January 20th - 7:30pm ET (Atlanta, GA)
Had Notre Dame made a 4-team playoff as a 4-seed, they would have played Oregon (maybe in the Rose Bowl?) and would have been a bigger underdog in that semifinal game than in any of their actual playoff games this year (-7.5 points to Indiana, -1 to Georgia, +1.5 to Penn State).
While Oregon got tagged by Ohio State, the betting market (and most sensible football fans) considers the Ducks a tougher opponent than the teams the Irish have beat. Plus, we saw all the teams with byes struggle to get it going against a team who’d played the week before, and in this made-up scenario, the Irish would have been the squad coming off a longer layoff.
The point (No. 2)?
It’s at least possible, that this Notre Dame team - the one claimed to be different than Irish CFP teams of years’ past - would have lost to No. 1 Oregon (maybe comfortably) and the talking heads would be blathering on afterwards about the “same ol’ Irish” and Brian Kelly wouldn’t be looking so silly for saying he was leaving for LSU for a “better chance to win a championship.”
Instead, Notre Dame got the pleasure of the ride - a nice warmup with a home game against the Hoosiers, they took advantage of Georgia and their backup quarterback, and instead of Oregon, the Irish were afforded a more winnable semifinal game against Penn State. By design, the 12-team playoff has made this run for the Irish faithful way more fun than it would have been if they just got in and had to wait over a month to play a semifinal game. For that, the new format is a win.
It’s been a route that’s doable for a VERY good football team, one that can win games in all three phases. A 98-yard touchdown run and shut-down defense beat Indiana, big plays on defense and special teams topped Georgia, and just enough pass offense with big plays on defense edged Penn State.
However, to beat Ohio State, you have to do it all really well and all at once.
Think about how difficult it felt for Texas (rated better than Notre Dame all season) to score. They found one matchup - a running back against a linebacker in the pass game - that gave the Longhorns their two touchdowns, but when it came down to tying the game (and putting a firm grip on a point spread cover) from the 1-yard line, Texas didn’t feel like it couldn’t go straight at the Buckeyes’ defense.
In the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame’s tailbacks, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined for just 59 rush yards on 18 carries against Penn State, after 16 for 56 against Georgia. Only Ole Miss and Tennessee had a better EPA/Play on opponent run plays than Ohio State, and the Buckeyes held the Longhorns to 2.95 yards per carry. Getting the Irish run game going will be a challenge. So, then what?
Can Riley Leonard carry Notre Dame - particularly through the air - against the Buckeyes’ defense, and is it something you’re willing to bet on?
The Irish defense goes to battle with a heavy man-to-man approach on a weekly basis, and they claim they’re going to “do what they do” on Monday night. Bad news - there isn’t another team in the country that has the trio of receivers that Ohio State does.
On the ground, Notre Dame will be consistently trying to tackle a top-shelf running back with fresh legs in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Chip Kelly may even unleash Will Howard - a consistently good runner at Kansas State - whose legs have been saved for the most crucial moments.
Both teams have inexplicable losses. It’s what makes this matchup and how we got here - with the extra steps this season - so fascinating. However, Ohio State’s (reportedly) $20 million roster was supposed to be here. A road loss by an eyelash to the Ducks and whatever voodoo the Wolverines have over the Buckeyes almost cost Columbus that, but they weren’t done any favors in their route to Atlanta.
You might argue that the way Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas lost to the Buckeyes, is an indictment of each of those teams, but three is a trend. Having watched each of the trio extensively this season, those final scores are more about Ohio State turning the talent on the roster into an equivalent product on the field.
Admittedly, the point spread is high. A more “true” projection would be slightly north of -7, since the Buckeyes weren’t necessarily full value for a 2-touchdown win over Texas, but as we’ve seen in this postseason, when the game starts to get away from the underdog, and desperation sets in, a one-score game can extend out to a large margin quickly.
Given what they’ve been through - taking heat from their own fanbase after the Michigan loss(es) - Ryan Day’s group won’t be taking it easy late, in a game where the most talented team in the country finishes off a wild season with a not-so-surprising championship, when you really think about it.
Pick: Ohio State (-8 at Bet365)
Riley Leonard: Under 38.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bet365)
With sack yardage counting against quarterback’s rushing total, and this being the toughest collective front the Irish have faced, we’ll fade Leonard being able to get loose for a big enough gain to finish with more than 38 yards. While Georgia wasn’t able to get to Leonard more than once and he broke loose for a 32-yard run, it took Leonard 18 carries to get to 35 yards against Penn State. Probably because the Nittany Lions were ready for Leonard’s legs (deploying Abdul Carter on a delayed rush along the line of scrimmage), just like the Buckeyes will be.
Will Howard: Over 9.5 rushing yards (-115 at Bet365)
In turn, I don’t think the Irish will be able to get to Howard for sack-yardage because of the Buckeyes’ advantage on the outside against man-to-man coverage. When Howard picks out his matchup pre-snap, he’ll be quick to release the ball. Plus, there will be a time when the Irish secondary defenders have their back turned in man-coverage, and a Howard scramble could go for a big gain.
TreVeyon Henderson: Longest rush - Over 16.5 yards (-115 at Bet365) / Anytime touchdown (+105, FanDuel)
Chunk plays.
Very few defenders exhibit much interest in meeting Judkins in the hole, but Henderson is the Buckeyes’ explosive weapon.
In each of their three playoff games, Henderson has both a gain of 18+ yards on the ground and as a receiver. Since he’ll get more carries than targets, we’ll bet on Henderson getting his usual big gain on the ground, as he also gashed playoff teams - Indiana and Oregon, in the regular season (and had a 16-yarder at Penn State).
Emeka Egbuka: Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel) / Anytime touchdown (+140, FanDuel)
If you’re going to go man-to-man, you put your best cornerback on the opponent’s best receiver (in this case, Jeremiah Smith) and hope for the best. That means defensive freshman of the year, Leonard Moore should be put on Emeka Egbuka, and while Moore excelled in a role he was forced into due to injury last summer, name me a better a No. 2 receiver in the country than Egbuka. Spoiler: There isn’t one, and he has a big game on Monday night.
National title SGP (+1000 at Bet365)
Jeremiah Smith: 5+ receptions
Gee Scott: 2+ receptions
Quinshon Judkins: Anytime touchdown
Ohio State -11.5
