College Football Bowl Betting (Part 1)
Best bets for Bowl games December 14-20
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
All the arguing about the College Football Playoff bracket has concluded (if it ever does), and before the new first round of the CFP kicks off from Notre Dame Stadium on the night of Friday, December 20th, we have a handful of old-school, mediocre Bowl games to bet on.
Part 1 of the Bowl Betting Preview takes a look at the market for each of the first seven games, including THE WINDOW’s projected point spread for each game, the opening line, and the early bet I’ve made. Then, we dig into why the point spread is where it is now, and what bet there is to be made at the current line.
Western Michigan vs. South Alabama (-7.5, 57.5)
Dec. 14 (9:00pm ET): Salute To Veterans Bowl (Montgomery, AL)
Projected spread: South Alabama -7.6
Opening line: South Alabama -10.5
My early bet: Western Michigan +10.5Saturday’s Bowl Season kickoff is an interesting market. Given its leadoff spot, this game was made before last Sunday’s flood of matchup announcements, so the market has been up longer than most, and it’s developed in an interesting way.
Grabbing Western Michigan early has proven valuable as the line has moved close to our initial projection, but I’m not sure it should have.
It’s possible that first move from -10.5 to as low as -7 stemmed from concern about the availability of quarterback Gio Lopez, who was nursing an ankle injury at the end of the season and was also a prime candidate for the dreaded opt-out/transfer, but Lopez put that to rest earlier this week.
As for playing in the Salute to Veterans Bowl? We have to go looking for clues online, finding this one:
A ticket sales tweet, sent on Wednesday, December 11th, is hopefully a hint that Lopez is following up his 2025 return announcement by playing in a local bowl game.
Western Michigan turned Eastern Michigan over three times, winning the regular season finale to get bowl eligible - a macro victory for a team that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2021 (and just 12 ever) - but are they content with their accomplishment?
Star tight end and leading pass-catcher, Blake Bosma, has entered the transfer portal and isn’t expected to play for WMU, suggesting that earning the trip to Alabama is more important than going and getting a win there.
While the Jaguars will be missing their own opt-out, leading-rusher, Fluff Bothwell (832), Kentrel Bullock (701 yards) is a suitable replacement to run against WMU’s 126th-ranked defense by EPA/Play. With or without Lopez, head coach Major Applewhite should have the Jags ready to finish their season strong, so I’ll back South Alabama in Mobile, coming over the top of my early bet on the Broncos.
Pick: South Alabama (-7.5, FanDuel)
West Virginia vs. Memphis (-4.5, 58.5)
Dec. 17 (9:00pm ET): Frisco Bowl (Frisco, TX)
Projected spread: West Virginia -3.2
Opening line: West Virginia -2.5
My Early bet: West Virginia PKWhile an early bet on the first bowl game looks like it will beat the market to the closing line, sometimes grabbing what you think is a valuable number doesn’t turn out to be so. However, in this case, it just means those late to the party have a better chance of winning.
Our projected line was close to the open, but the market has flipped the favorite from West Virginia by almost a field goal to Memphis -4.5. The Mountaineers’ estimated market rating (65/100) ended the season where it started, as a team projected to win 6.5 games in preseason betting markets. A loss to Texas Tech left them at six.
Meanwhile, the favorite in the AAC, Memphis, was lined at 9.5. On the way to winning 10 games, the Tigers’ EMR got to 60/100 before upsetting Tulane in their regular season finale.
Based on those last games, and the Mountaineers firing head coach Neal Brown, and you can make some adjustments to get Memphis to -3. However, the Tigers’ last win was by far their best, so backing them in Texas would be buying them at a high point in the market, and selling WVU at their lowest - not something we recommend doing, even in the lawless territory of Bowl Season.
Pick: West Virginia (+4.5, DraftKings)
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (-9, 52.5)
Dec. 18 (5:30pm ET): Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton, FL)
Projected spread: James Madison -3.8
Opening line: James Madison -3.5
My early bet: James Madison -3.5The line opened right where we expected, and to be honest, buying James Madison at -3.5 was only expected to get minimal closing line value. Then things got weird.
Early in the season, the winner of a preseason quarterback battle - TJ Finley (Texas State transfer) got hurt and Caden Veltkamp took over for Western Kentucky and was good enough to help them to Conference USA championship game - thanks to a late, long field goal against Jacksonville State. In the rematch, the Gamecocks crushed the Hilltoppers, running for 386 total yards, and Veltkamp hopped into the transfer portal - perhaps still annoyed he lost the duel for the starting job in the first place. That means the Toppers are turning to a third quarterback - Tyson Helton (also technically in the portal) for the Boca Raton Bowl.
James Madison is without their own starting quarterback, Alonza Barnett III - injured against Marshall in the regular season finale. Long-time backup Billy Atkins will get the start, but the good news for the Dukes is that the Hilltoppers can’t stop the run, and JMU also has dual-threat QB, J.C. Evans, for stints.
The betting market thinks the quarterback carousel in this game, and the matchup, drastically falls in the favor of James Madison, so I’ll be standing pat with my initial bet, passing on a large opportunity to middle the game.
Unfortunately, -3.5 is quite different from -9, so we’ll have to consider the Dukes a lean.
Lean: James Madison (-9, DraftKings)
UNLV vs. California (-1.5, 50.5)
Dec. 18 (9:00pm ET) - L.A. Bowl (Inglewood, CA)
Projected spread: California -0.6
Opening line: California -1.5
My early bet: UNLV +4What a roller coaster ride this line has been, and I managed to time it correctly.
UNLV head coach Barry Odom is off to Purdue. Like with West Virginia, that news came with the market selling the Rebels, and the line crossed the key number of +3. Somewhat optimistically, I bet UNLV at +4, on the hopes that QB Tajj-Malik Williams and star receiver Ricky White opt to play in the L.A. Bowl (an attractive early-postseason event) to flush out the bad vibes from their loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Championship.
A day later, and this line has returned to where it opened with California a short favorite. Whether that’s due to Williams and White’s willingness to play, or the Bears’ own starting quarterback-receiver duo, Fernando Mendoza and Nzyiah Hunter, hitting the portal (and backup Chandler Rogers’ injury in the finale), we’re back to trying to pick a winner.
Cal got their big win of the season by topping Stanford in “The Big Game,” which also clinched bowl eligibility, but then got smoked by SMU, and may be up against it if the Rebels are motivated to finish the season strong with their former head coach off to greener pastures.
Pick: UNLV (+1.5, DraftKings)
Sam Houston State vs. Georgia Southern (-6, 49)
Dec. 19 (7:00pm ET) - New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, LA)
Projected spread: Georgia Southern -6.3
Opening line: Georgia Southern -5.5
My early bet: NoneIt didn’t take long for a small move from Georgia Southern -5.5 to -6 to align with our projection. As a result, we have to go digging for an edge.
As it so happens with the better teams in Conference USA, the best players are looking to move up in the college football heirarchy, so the transfer portal list for Sam Houston is ample. We’ll see how many still play, but it might be tough to generate offense for a team that, since beating UTEP 41-21 on October 3rd, averaged just 14.5 points per game, topping out at 23 against FBS-debutant Kennesaw State. None of which is befitting of a team whose market rating finished higher than it opened before the season.
Sam Houston’s record was good enough for Temple to hire away K.C. Keeler, yet the Bobcats haven’t gotten the same fade treatment of others above who’ve lost their head coach.
Georgia Southern also saw an increase in their rating, as they were lined at 5.5 wins, but won eight. Finishing the regular season 3-1 against some of the better teams in the Sun Belt apparently has the vibes high enough that their transfer portal list is quite small, making them the proper favorite, and worth backing under a touchdown.
Pick: Georgia Southern (-6, DraftKings)
Jacksonville State vs. Ohio (-3.5, 54.5)
Dec. 20 (12:00pm ET) - Cure Bowl (Orlando, FL)
Projected spread: Ohio -0.6
Opening line: Ohio -2
My early bet: NoneTo the victors go the spoils, so the CUSA and MAC champion head coaches are already a thing of the past, as Rich Rodriguez is headed back to West Virginia and Tim Albin is the newest boss at Charlotte. Yet, the market’s moved towards the Bobcats, crossing the key number of -3, which triggers a value bet on the Gamecocks.
Like Memphis, Ohio’s best game of the season came in their last one - laying a beatdown on Miami (Ohio) for the conference championship, a 10-win season and a trip to Orlando.
Barring a mass exodus that hasn’t been announced yet, and even with an upgrade for Ohio, I can’t get to where the Bobcats are favored by more than a field goal since Jacksonville State should get credit for a similar win in their title game. Though the Bobcats had above-average run defense metrics against their MAC opponents, this will be their toughest test given how well the Gamecocks have run the ball this season.
Pick: Jacksonville State (+3.5, FanDuel)
Tulane vs. Florida (-14, 49.5)
Dec. 20 (3:30pm ET) - Gasparilla Bowl (Tampa, FL)
Projected spread: Florida -9.5
Opening line: Florida -9.5
My early bet: NoneWe nailed the opening number with our projection, and if the initial instinct was to take the Gators (after their strong finish to the regular season), that quickly became a less valuable concept as the line has slowly risen throughout the week.
Much of the reason for the line move is that quarterback Darian Mensah has already announced he’s headed to Duke for next season, and the Green Wave didn’t exactly finish the season strong, coughing up a chance to play the AAC title game at home with a loss to Memphis, and then getting run over at Army. Is that enough to downgrade Tulane to the point where they’re lower than where they were before the season, when they were lined at 7.5 wins? Because that’s what it would take to get over two touchdowns.
Ty Thompson is getting the start at QB, and the former Oregon Duck actually provides more of a threat with his legs than Mensah did. Losing the battle for starting quarterback doesn’t look as bad now, after Mensah’s great season, so maybe all is not lost for Tulane.
Florida had already seen an aggressive rise in their estimated market rating, going up to 75/100 - the same level as playoff teams like SMU and Indiana. The Gators stock couldn’t be higher, and the market’s been anxious to back them here, but this line has gone too far, since it’s not like the Green Wave lost their head coach, and they don’t have much of a list of “portallers” (whereas Florida as a few). At a full 2-touchdown spread, we’ll back Jon Sumrall’s group to compete, with the motivation to finish the season with a better taste in their collective mouth.