College Football Bowl Betting (Part 4)
Best bets for Bowl games from Dec. 31 to Jan. 4
Let’s be honest with each other. These games stink.
The further away from the end of the regular season, the less interest many of the players have for playing on New Year’s Eve or in early 2025. As a result, opt-outs abound and the line moves in a way that’s, at best, an educated guess.
One such example came in the Holiday Bowl, where a mass exodus at Washington State led to a precipitous shift from an already generous open of Syracuse -4.5 all the way up to Syracuse -18. Sure enough, the Cougars trailed 52-28 late, but with nine seconds left, Wazzu scored a touchdown to cover the closing number.
It’s a scenario where a combination of the absurd desire to bet on a football game and an incredible amount of patience led to a winning bet. Perhaps what’s required to win during Bowl Season.
Michigan vs. Alabama (-13.5, 43.5)
Dec. 31 (12:00pm ET) - ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa, FL)
Projected spread: Alabama -6.3
Opening line: Alabama -13.5
My early bet: Michigan +13.5No one knows what the final score will be, but oddsmakers sort of predicted the future here. An opening line of Alabama -13.5 seemed high, and bettors quickly sent it down to -10.5, but after a few weeks of news and notes, here we are, right back where they set it in the first place.
The line opened high because Michigan was expected to be without their few NFL prospects, and sure enough, that’s the case. Meanwhile, concern about Alabama having some key opt-outs that brought the line down, has since subsided with Jalen Milroe apparently set to play, along with star tackle Kadyn Proctor who seems healthy enough to go.
That doesn’t mean Alabama’s locked-in to dominate. After a season of transition for Michigan, they’re hosting the early-enrolled recruits in practice this week, and will be playing those on the current roster who’ll be on the team next season, which suggests whatever they lack in experience, they should make up for in enthusiasm.
Given the line has ticked back up over the last week, it’s prudent to wait to see if we can get a flat +14 (-110) before stepping in to fade an Alabama team who might see this game in the same way that both Miami and Colorado did on Saturday.
Pick: Michigan (Wait to see if +14 pops, but bet +13.5 before kickoff)
Washington vs. Louisville (-2.5, 49.5)
Dec. 31 (2:00pm ET) - Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX)
Projected spread: Louisville -1.9
Opening line: Louisville -5.5
My early bet: Washington +5.5I don’t know why Louisville opened a 5.5-point favorite, but I’ve also been down on the Cardinals all season. The market has been with me here, as the line’s fallen, through -3 and down to -2.5. Of course, there was a reason for the move, as veteran starting quarterback Tyler Shough and star receiver Ja’Corey Brooks have opted out, along with the Cardinals’ best defensive players.
What that means, is that we’re getting a fair point spread if all things were equal, but without the Cardinals’ top talent. Given that, we have to look at the Washington side to see if they’re also missing the same level of talent.
The Huskies’ defense should take a hit, as a trio of defensive linemen were injured in their regular season finale, but defensive coordinator Steve Belichick is hanging around long enough to call plays before heading off to Chapel Hill to rejoin his dad.
Washington’s most significant opt-out is their starting left tackle, but with Demond Williams at quarterback instead of pocket-passer Will Rogers, if the Sun Bowl devolves into a glorified pickup game, his speed and athleticism should frustrate the Cardinals even when they’re able to get pressure.
Pick: Washington (+2.5, Bet365)
Illinois vs. South Carolina (-10, 49)
Dec. 31 (3:00pm ET) - Citrus Bowl (Orlando, FL)
Projected spread: South Carolina -13.9
Opening line: South Carolina -10.5
My early bet: South Carolina -10.5This line has rode the junior teeter-totter opening at -10.5, going to -9.5, and settling in at -10. That’s not the wild ride that’s been more common this postseason.
Unlike many of the other games in this section of the postseason, the favored team should have ample motivation to show out, as South Carolina - one of the snubs for the CFP - is building for next season in front of LaNorris Sellers. The 2025 Heisman candidate opens things up for whomever is playing running back for the Gamecocks, which is a relief considering Rocket Sanders has opted out.
If you looked at the rankings - No. 15 versus No. 20, you could be convinced that there’s not much difference between these two teams, but every time Illinois had been matched up with a playoff-caliber team, an offense that has success against middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams tended to dry up. The Illini lost by 29 at Oregon and 14 at Penn State (not to mention a home loss to Minnesota).
Like most Bowl games, the result will come down to who shows up prepared and motivated, but the Illini resume doesn’t stack up with Shane Beamer’s group who have three road wins in the SEC and closed the season winning at Clemson.
South Carolina failed to cover three times this season (the season-opener with Old Dominion, the blowout loss to Ole Miss, and an inflated spread against Missouri when Brady Cook was a surprise start), so, the market’s been relative low on the Gamecocks all season, and may be here as well.
Pick: South Carolina (-10, Bet365)
LSU vs. Baylor (-3.5, 59.5)
Dec. 31 (3:30pm ET) - Texas Bowl (Houston, TX)
Projected spread: LSU -2.5
Opening line: LSU -2.5
My early bet: Baylor +3During the “Goin’ Bowlin’” episode of THE WINDOW podcast on December 10th, Baylor +3 was given out, and here was the quote:
I can never trust what’s going on with LSU, who’s going to play, whether Nussmeier ends up playing… If everybody plays for LSU, I think (Baylor) +3 is a good value bet, if nobody plays for LSU, I think the favorite flips here… with Baylor being the quasi-home team. - THE WINDOW, Dec. 10th
What’s happened since?
Well, both of LSU’s NFL prospect offensive tackles have opted to start their preparation for the next level, and a handful of other opt-outs have left the Tigers thin at certain positions. But, is this enough for a mirrored flip in the line?
Garrett Nussmeier has already declared that he’s back for next season, and will be playing in the Texas Bowl against former LSU defensive coordinator, Dave Aranda. Depending on how you feel about the concept of “home-field” for Baylor, the current line implies this version of the Bears is better than the Tigers. Which might have been true without Nussmeier (as a symbol of the Tigers’ disinterest). That sentiment likely exists because of Baylor’s six straight wins to end the season, where they scored at least 37 points in five of those games, but that came against mediocre defenses by EPA/Play: Texas Tech (36th), Oklahoma State (81), TCU (54), West Virginia (76), and Kansas (52).
LSU is “just” 31st nationally, but in the one matchup in the back-half of Baylor’s season where they didn’t light it up, they scored only 20 points against Houston and the Cougars’ 32nd-ranked defense.
With the betting market expecting the winning team to score 30+, we’ll bet that LSU is more likely to hit that mark, coming over the top to create a possible middle if this game comes down to a field goal or a 2-point conversion.
Pick: LSU (+4, -110 at DraftKings)
Duke vs. Ole Miss (-17.5, 51.5)
Jan. 2 (7:30pm ET) - Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL)
Projected spread: Ole Miss -14.5
Opening line: Ole Miss -12.5
My early bet: Duke +14.5For all the excitement around Manny Diaz’s first season at Duke - going from a projected 5.5-win total to nine wins - starting quarterback Maalik Murphy quickly hopped in the transfer portal once the season ended.
Why? The answer to all your questions is money, so, presumably, Murphy was looking for a big NIL deal. Instead, Duke tossed (a reported) $8 million at Darian Mensah for next season, Auburn and Kentucky opted for other players, and Murphy (a 2-time transfer) ended up at Oregon State. Oof.
Murphy’s exit - the lone key player to opt-out - is the reason the Rebels have been pushed up to 17.5-point favorites. However, what are the Blue Devils’ really losing without him?
Duke’s offense - particularly their dropback efficiency - was the worst thing about them. The Blue Devils were 75th nationally in EPA/Play offensively (76th in dropbacks), so how much worse could it be with Henry Belin IV. Belin’s been at Duke for three years. Admittedly, if he were better, Duke wouldn’t have brought Murphy over in the first place. In one start last year, Belin went 4/12 for 107 yards, but the Blue Devils beat North Carolina State 24-3 anyway, on the strength of a couple big plays and a defense that’s been the strength of the team this year.
While many of Ole Miss’s key players appear to be participating - including Jaxson Dart, there are no guarantees Lane Kiffin’s group will be focused on a game that takes place a day after the games they wanted to be in.
Pick: Duke (+17.5, -110 at Bet365)
North Texas vs. Texas State (-13.5, 63.5)
Jan. 3 (4:00pm ET) - First Responder Bowl (Dallas, TX)
Projected spread: Texas State -9.5
Opening line: Texas State -7.5
My early bet: NoneNo one threw it around at a higher clip than North Texas this year, so it’s sub-optimal that quarterback Chandler Morris (off to Virginia) and star receiver DT Sheffield are passing on this game. To make matters worse, the Mean Green are turning to a freshman walk-on to start, taking over the reigns of an offense not exactly built to hide a nice, green quarterback.
Texas State’s been largely overrated this season, with a market rating suggesting they went over their win total despite a 7-5 record coming up two games short of going over 8.5. The reason for this might be due to close losses to Arizona State (CFP team) and Sam Houston State (Bowl winner), and an injury to quarterback Jordan McCloud that derailed their chances to beat Louisiana and make the Sun Belt title game. McCloud is back healthy for this game, and the senior is looking forward to this game having lost his bowl game with James Madison last season after head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana (pillaging the JMU roster with him).
The Bobcats will have their full complement of players, and their own high-octane offense should set a pretty high bar for the North Texas offense to keep up with.
Pick: Texas State (-13.5, -110 at Bet365)
Virginia Tech vs. Minnesota (-7.5, 42.5)
Jan. 3 (7:30pm ET) - Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Charlotte, NC)
Projected spread: Minnesota -5
Opening line: Minnesota -2.5
My early bet: NoneThere’s nothing like Bowl season to make you feel like a dope.
There’s the bet that you make that moves against you. The bet that moves towards you but still loses. Then there’s the bet you don’t make when the valuable side was obvious, so you feel dumb for not having a bet on the game. Especially when you know full well that when an NFL-less Thursday night in January rolls around, you’ll be looking to back a side to win the right to have mayonnaise poured on the head coach.
That’s the problem, though. It was almost that simple when Minnesota opened under a field goal, but it quickly flew through the key numbers.
Starting quarterback Kyron Drones is injured and likely out, but the big issue is that their best players have hit the portal, losing a series of All-ACC players on both sides of the ball. It doesn’t help Virginia Tech (or Duke above) that the ACC is an incomprehensible 0-10 against the spread in Bowl games this season.
However, betting on Minnesota at this point means not just giving 7.5 with a Gophers’ offense that’s been poor all season and giving more points than we should have to. But, with a 5-0 bowl record, PJ Fleck has a history of having Minnesota ready and is the type to welcome taking a vat of mayo to the dome.
Pick: Pass
Liberty vs. Buffalo (-2.5, 50.5)
Jan. 4 (11:00am ET) - Bahamas Bowl (Nassau, Bahamas)
Projected spread: Liberty -3.2
Opening line: Liberty -2.5
My early bet: Liberty -2.5This line has flipped the favorite.
Four completed bowl games have seen one team open the favorite and the other team close the favorite (Baylor-LSU hasn’t been played), and, naturally the results are 2-2.
Memphis and UNLV won (and covered) after going from opening ‘dog to closing favorite, while Miami and Texas Tech saw their big move after open end in disappointment.
The big reason for the flip is the news of quarterback Kaidon Salter moving on from Liberty, heading to Colorado. Salter hadn’t been particularly good this season, and the Flames turned heavily to the run game. That would provide optimism for Liberty without him, but they’re also without three starting offensive linemen. All of this is reflected in the line.
Given they opened the season with a win total of 10.5, the Flames winning eight games was a disappointment, but that was reflected in a change from an estimated market rating of 60/100 down to 40/100 - when Liberty opened -2.5. Now that they’re +2.5? The Flames are being looked at as a 30/100, unless it’s due to Buffalo being moved up the ratings board.
Buffalo comes in without any key opt-outs, and a 4-game winning streak at the end of the season to clear their 5.5-win total by 2.5. However, those wins came against four of the five MAC teams that didn’t make a Bowl this season, so if the line calculations are due more to an upgrade of the Bulls than a downgrade of Liberty, I can’t fully can’t get behind that either.