College Football Bowl Betting (Part 2)
Best bets for Bowl games December 26 and 27
Bowl season began inauspiciously. There was so much consternation about the offenses of South Alabama and West Virginia that their lines moved to the point where both managed to cover the closing lines.
Alas, each team racking up 500+ yards on offense didn’t help us, as they came up a half-point shy of the line listed at the time of publishing. So, it’s a 3-4 record for Part 1 of our Bowl betting preview.
Including playoff games, blindly waiting until the last minute and fading the last line move has gone 7-5 through the games of December 23rd. With a deluge of Bowl games before New Years’, let’s look at the post-Christmas octet in Part 2.
Toledo vs. Pittsburgh (-7, 50)
Dec. 26 (2:00pm ET) - Sports Bowl (Detroit, MI)
Projected spread: Pittsburgh -9.5
Opening line: Pittsburgh -9.5
My early bet: NonePittsburgh was only expected to win five or six games this season, so it was more than surprising that they started 7-0. However, since intercepting Kyle McCord roughly 3 trillion times in the first half of a Thursday-night game, the Panthers lost five straight to close the season amid injury issues to starting quarterback Eli Holstein.
A line move down to Pittsburgh -7 suggests that the optimism for Holstein to play is unfounded, but a bet on this game is basically a guess on whether he plays or not. If he does, the Panthers might be a worthy bet at -7, but if he doesn’t (with backup Nate Yarnell in the transfer portal) then Toledo is live to win.
The Rockets have been thoroughly downgraded from being the preseason favorite in the MAC and not getting anywhere near the conference title game. However, they still landed in one of the MAC’s most prominent Bowl tie-ins, and should be happy to take on a power conference team who might not be that into this game.
Pick: Wait for best number on Toledo (+7 without Holstein, +7.5 or better with him in)
Rutgers vs. Kansas State (-7, 50.5)
Dec. 26 (5:30pm ET) - Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix, AZ)
Projected spread: Kansas State -9.4
Opening line: Kansas State -6
My early bet: Kansas State -6.5Two of the most perplexing teams in college football meet up on a baseball diamond in Arizona. Sweet.
Greg Schiano coughed up the Illinois game, but had he not called the timeout that allowed Illinois re-think a 57-yard field goal that had no chance of being made, they’d be coming into this game with four straight wins after their bye week, and a market rating right around where it was before the season. After all, Rutgers was valued as a 6.5-win team out of the Big Ten, which would put them into the low-60s (out of 100) in our estimated market ratings, and they won seven games. Assessing Rutgers as the team we thought they’d be all along would bring this projected spread under a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Kansas State disappointed all season, with just one win in November despite being in contention for the Big 12. The Wildcats’ best two NFL prospects (RB DJ Giddens, CB Jacob Parrish) have opted out, and their starting right tackle has already transferred to Washington.
The status of Rutgers’ star tailback, Kyle Monangai, is still up in the air, but even if he can’t go, that just means opportunity for freshman Antwan Raymond and Samuel Brown V, who combined for eight touchdowns this season, and almost 4.5 yards per carry.
With Schiano 6-2 in bowl games at Rutgers, against a team reeling and potentially disinterested, they’re live for an upset. I’m coming back over the top of an early bet on Kansas State.
Pick: Rutgers (+7, Bet365)
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (-8, 53)
Dec. 26 (9:00pm ET) - 68 Ventures Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Projected spread: Bowling Green -6.3
Opening line: Bowling Green -6.5
My early bet: Bowling Green -6.5There wasn’t a particular rating advantage in grabbing Bowling Green early, but we’ve been backers of the Falcons all season so why not? Plus, Arkansas State’s 7-5 record is built on wins over the bottom of the Sun Belt and an early season upset over South Alabama.
However, this line is starting to get out of hand.
With news that even the Bowling Green players who’ve committed to other schools are still going to play in this game, the line has ticked up over the key number of -7. For example, All-MAC right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger is headed to Kentucky, but he’s still playing. All-American tight end Harold Fannin is still uncertain, but the silver-lining to missing out on the MAC Championship is that the Falcons managed to retain head coach Scot Loeffler. If everyone is up for it, maybe the Falcons do win comfortably.
While -8 feels too high, I’m not coming back against my early bet on Bowling Green, hoping that they’re full engaged and can cover all numbers.
Pick: Bowling Green (-8, if you need action)
Navy vs. Oklahoma (-3, 43.5)
Dec. 27 (12:00pm ET) - Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth, TX)
Projected spread: Oklahoma -7.6
Opening line: Oklahoma -9.5
My early bet: Navy +9The Army-Navy game came after the opening Bowl lines, so when Oklahoma opened as a 9.5-point favorite, it was before the Midshipmen beat Army as 6-point underdogs. In general, bettors like backing the academies in their Bowl games because they know there won’t be any opt-outs, and expect a full effort out of the team.
Oklahoma has a handful of opt-outs, including starting quarterback Jackson Arnold, but he was benched at one point this season, and only managed 110 yards in the regular season finale at LSU. What are the Sooners really missing?
Michael Hawkins Jr. replaced Arnold for three games - Tennessee, at Auburn, Texas - that were the toughest stretch of the season for Oklahoma, but he impressed with his toughness and running ability. There’s no discernible downgrade between he and Arnold. Meanwhile, the Sooners’ defense is tasked with dealing with the Navy modified triple-option, but in the two games where the Midshipmen played more talented teams - Notre Dame and Tulane, they lost 86-14.
A spread of -3 reflects an expectation that the Sooners will no-show this game, and maybe they will, but I don’t think it’s a valuable bet to make that assumption. Instead, I’ll shoot for a middle by buying back on Oklahoma, who two games ago stood up to Alabama in the trenches.
Pick: Oklahoma (-3, DraftKings)
Vanderbilt vs. Georgia Tech (-2.5, 51.5)
Dec. 27 (3:30pm ET) - Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham, AL)
Projected spread: Georgia Tech -3.2
Opening line: Georgia Tech -2.5
My early bet: Georgia Tech -2.5*We hopped on Georgia Tech early because the Yellow Jackets are different when Haynes King is leading the offense. There’s no guarantee that Tech beats Notre Dame or Virginia Tech with a healthy King, but any team that can go to eight overtimes in Athens might be capable. With King good to go in the Birmingham Bowl, I’m willing to trust that he and head coach Brent Key have the Jackets ready to go.
Meanwhile, for all of the excitement about Vanderbilt becoming a nuisance in the SEC, after shocking Alabama, the Commodores won just three more games - Kentucky (1-7 in-conference), Ball State (3-9 overall), Auburn (2-6 in-conference). Vandy was a cool story within the fabric of college football, but they’re not as good as Georgia Tech, and probably a little overrated in the market.
Pick: Georgia Tech (-2.5, *given out on THE WINDOW podcast on December 10)
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas (-2.5, 53.5)
Dec. 27 (7:00pm ET) - Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN)
Projected spread: Arkansas -3.2
Opening line: Arkansas -2.5
My early bet: Arkansas -2.5This line has taken quite a ride. A flurry of early opt-outs from Arkansas flipped the favorite role to Texas Tech. Then, the Red Raiders’ had a handful of their own opt-outs, potentially including star running back Tahj Brooks. Meanwhile, quarterback Behren Morton had surgery, forcing freshman Will Hammond into a starting role, and the line went back to Arkansas as a small favorite.
With so many moving pieces, you have to rely on which coaching staff you believe will have his team better prepared. For me, that’s Joey McGuire, whose freshman quarterback is a 4-star recruit offered by many of the top schools in the country, and is expected to be Morton’s eventual replacement. The Red Raiders managed wins over Iowa State and Arizona State this season, while the Arkansas’s resume is predicated on one somewhat fluky win over Tennessee.
Pick: Texas Tech (+2.5, -115 at FanDuel)
Washington State vs. Syracuse (-16.5, 59.5)
Dec. 27 (8:00pm ET) - Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA)
Projected spread: Washington State -5.5
Opening line: Syracuse -4.5
My early bet: NoneThere are two non-major (now playoff) bowl games that should be illegal to skip out on: the Holiday Bowl and Sun Bowl.
Yet, it seems like Washington State will avoid jail time anyway.
Can you imagine how clear you have to make it that you’re not interested in the bowl game you accepted an invitation to, to go from being the higher-rated team for much of the season, to open at +4.5, to eventually move to a more than two-touchdown underdog???
10 starters have bailed out of Washington State, including star quarterback John Mateer, who’s headed to Oklahoma. We won’t blame them too much, considering the primary coaching staff all took other jobs after the regular season ended.
Just because this game is being played, doesn’t mean we have to bet it.
USC vs. Texas A&M (-3.5, 52)
Dec. 27 (10:30pm ET) - Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV)
Projected spread: Texas A&M -4.4
Opening line: Texas A&M -1
My early bet: Texas A&M ML (-115)*Undaunted by their loss to Texas - a national title contender - I jumped on Texas A&M when this game opened right around pick’em. Luckily it was still available at under a field goal when we recorded and posted THE WINDOW podcast on the Tuesday after the Bowl matchups were announced, and it was part of a handful of games we pinpointed for a further line move.
So, we’re sitting on the Aggies at under a field goal, comfortable with that bet knowing that USC actually has more transfer portallers and opt-outs. Many of those are at the skill positions, which isn’t going to help Jaiden Maiava, who’s been wildly inconsistent since taking over the starting role from Miller Moss.
Plus, we get to bet on Mike Elko and fade Lincoln Riley, when the former has the better talent in the trenches.