College Football Bowl Betting (Part 3)
Best bets for Bowl games on December 28
If you’ve been missing our old Saturdays - rife with college football games, one on top of the other - then you’re going to enjoy this one. It’s Bowl Season’s most densely populated day, with eight games on the slate.
UConn vs. North Carolina (-2.5, 52.5)
Dec. 28 (11:00am ET) - Fenway Bowl (Boston, MA)
Projected spread: North Carolina -3.2
Opening line: North Carolina -5.5
My early bet: UConn +5.5The Tar Heels are “on to” Bill Belichick, and their best player on offense (Omarion Hampton) and defense (Kaimon Rucker) are each off to the NFL Draft, so it should come as no surprise that a strangely high opening line of UNC -5.5 has come down through our projection of a shade over -3.
An Independent is always tricky to handicap, but UConn was expected to win four or five games, and finished the season 8-4. It’s fair to say they earned an upgrade. The Huskies are thrilled to play in a New England-area bowl game, whereas it would be a surprise if North Carolina was fired up and ready to go at 11:00am in Boston. Given how their season ended, we’ll bet that they play to the floor of their range.
UConn played three ACC teams as part of their schedule, and while they lost each time, they were all one-score games. With a fourth opportunity to take down a Power-4 opponent, you’ll get a full effort from Jim Mora Jr’s group, and I can’t guarantee the same from Heels.
Pick: UConn (+2.5, -105 at DraftKings)
Boston College vs. Nebraska (-4, 45.5)
Dec. 28 (12:00pm ET) - Pinstripe Bowl (New York, NY)
Projected spread: Nebraska -5.7
Opening line: Nebraska -6.5
My early bet: NoneWe go from the Red Sox home to the Yankees’, as the opening market for the Pinstripe Bowl was wild. After coming down off a singular open of -6.5, one prominent sportsbook sat at -2.5 and another at -4.5, allowing for astute bettors to get a piece of each team at the advantageous number. Since then, the line settled at -2.5 for a while, but has passed through -3 to -4.
While that tug-of-war has been a sight to behold, now that we’re back at +4, Boston College is the only way to look. Nebraska’s offense took a step forward with the hiring of Dana Holgersen towards the end of the season, but they still lost five of six to end the year. Meanwhile, in Bill O’Brien’s first year in Chestnut Hill, he’s set the tone of responsibility by benching (and, as a result, jettisoning) Thomas Castellanos.
The Eagles won three of four, with the lone loss coming in a close game at SMU, as junior quarterback, Grayon James, has improved in each of his three starts down the stretch, and should play well against a disappointing Cornhusker defense.
Pick: Boston College (+4, -110 at Bet365)
Louisiana vs. TCU (-11.5, 59)
Dec. 28 (2:00pm ET) - New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, NM)
Projected spread: TCU -10.1
Opening line: TCU -8.5
My early bet: TCU -8.5I grabbed TCU -8.5 early just on a point spread valuation, thinking that the line should be a touch higher. For the last three weeks, we’ve seen the point spread tick up, and through that projection.
Last we saw Louisiana, they were getting routed 31-3 in the Sun Belt Championship, as they were down to their third quarterback - initially, the presumed starter for this game. Daniel Beale went 9/24 for 95 yards, but the Ragin’ Cajuns weren’t able to do anything in the run game either. That version of Louisiana would be in big trouble in Albuquerque, a sentiment confirmed by this line getting up as high as TCU -13.5.
That’s not a bird, or a plane you’re seeing in the distance, but it is starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge. The Ragin’ Cajun star left the South Alabama game in mid-November and quickly had surgery on his broken collarbone so that he could fly back into the locker room and potentially play in a Bowl. With 606 career pass attempts and a 38-to-11 TD:INT ratio, his return should mean we see a different Louisiana team, buoyed by the embarrassment from the loss to Marshall.
Meanwhile, TCU’s got a pair of key opt-outs on offense in receivers Jack Bech and Savion Williams, which might hinder an offense that’s had to outpace a defense that gave up over 30 points to any remotely decent offense (Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, SMU, UCF, and Stanford).
With the expectation that Wooldridge will play, I’ll come back over the top of my original bet on TCU before the line gets to my fair price of Louisiana +10.
Pick: Louisiana (+11.5, DraftKings)
Iowa State vs. Miami (-3.5, 56.5)
Dec. 28 (3:30pm ET) - Pop-Tarts Bowl (Orlando, FL)
Projected spread: Miami -7.6
Opening line: Iowa State -1
My early bet: Miami PKUnfortunately, one of the two most fun games on Saturday is also the most impossible to bet at the current number.
Cam Ward claimed he was going to play in Miami’s Bowl game, and yet, even after seeing the Cyclones get blown out of the Big 12 Championship, oddsmakers opened Iowa State as the slight favorite. Once it was reasserted that Ward - the only reason to bet on Miami this season - would play, the line went through the key number of -3.
That’s important, because while our projection of -7.6 is reflective of how the market felt about the Hurricanes up until the loss to Syracuse, Miami couldn’t hold a lead in that game, so there’s little reason to want to lay any points with the ‘Canes’ defense.
If Ward’s excited to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, I’m happy to hold my bet needing Miami just to win, but there’s been nothing about the defense this season that would make me recommend betting on them at -3.5. Meanwhile, Iowa State and Matt Campbell are always a more viable option when getting points versus playing under the expectation of the favorite.
Pick: Iowa State +3.5, if you need a play in pools, or a small bet in the game
Colorado State vs. Miami-Ohio (-3, 40.5)
Dec. 28 (4:30pm ET) - Arizona Bowl (Tucson, AZ)
Projected spread: Miami -3.2
Opening line: Miami -2.5
My early bet: Colorado State +3A MAC team as a favorite? In this economy?!?
Our projection suggests it’s a fair line, but that doesn’t mean the concept is something we have to just accept. Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Bowling Green were also favored this Bowl Season so maybe the MAC is on the come up, but it also shows how tough it was to rate the teams of the Mountain West this season.
Three Miami starters on offense, their top cornerback, and maybe a couple more key players have opted out, as many of the best players on the MAC runners-up are finding themselves promotions to Power Conference teams.
Colorado State went through their big personnel loss early this season, when star receiver Tory Horton was lost for the season against San Jose State in mid-October. It didn’t seem to matter, as the Rams lost just one more game the rest of the season, missing out on the Mountain West title game on a tiebreaker.
Maybe the Redhawks use their awful showing in the MAC title game as reason to be focused on playing well in Arizona, but since I don’t have a legitimate reason for Brett Gabbert and company’s 38-3 loss, I’ll take a field goal with Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and a Rams’ team that showed heart down the stretch.
Pick: Colorado State (+3, Bet365)
East Carolina vs. North Carolina State (-6, 58)
Dec. 28 (5:45pm ET) - Military Bowl (Annapolis, MD)
Projected spread: North Carolina State -7.6
Opening line: North Carolina State -5
My early bet: North Carolina State -5North Carolina State is always more interesting as an underdog, but if we’re getting a Wolfpack team that showed improvement over the course of the season matched up against a team with lesser talent, at under a touchdown, I’m fine with backing Dave Doeren’s group.
Doeren’s a good coach, so it was a surprise when the addition of Grayson McCall didn’t work out for them this season, and their market rating plummeted. The failure at the quarterback position meant that freshman CJ Bailey had to grow up super-quick, and the growing pains were evident. NC State out-gained Wake Forest 419-315, but lost at home - the only time they fell against a team they were better than.
East Carolina’s been upgraded quite a bit despite a season where they were lined to win 6.5 games, lost their NFL-prospect cornerback to an ACL tear, fired their head coach midway through the season, won seven games, and then lost at home as 3-point favorites to Navy’s backup quarterback when the Midshipmen had just been shutout in their last game.
What can we expect from ECU on Saturday? It’s anyone’s guess, but it leaves me to picking the coach and talent pool that I can feel better with going in, so I’ll hold my ticket, and would play the ‘Pack at anything under a touchdown.
Pick: North Carolina State (-6, -104 at ESPNBet/-106 at Pinnacle)
BYU vs. Colorado (-4, 54.5)
Dec. 28 (7:30pm ET) - Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, TX)
Projected spread: Colorado -6.3
Opening line: Colorado -2.5
My early bet: Colorado -2.5Here are the facts going into the Alamo Bowl:
The betting market’s loved Colorado for much of the season, while also not buying BYU (you’ll recall they were very short favorites in late-season games against sub-.500 teams, Utah and Kansas)
How I apply that information is an expectation that the full-health Buffaloes might be a 6-point favorite on a neutral field
Due to concern that Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter wouldn’t play, the line opened -2.5, even though their head coach inferred they would
Knowing that publicly available information would lead you a valuable bet on Colorado
As the game’s gotten closer, the stars haven’t opted out and the line has crept up to -4
What to do now?
I don’t want Colorado at -4, since, just because they play doesn’t mean they care about the result. However, there isn’t enough of a middle opportunity to bet back on BYU.
If I didn’t have a position on it, or if the line climbed up to +6 at kickoff, I’d bet BYU because I trust Kilani Sitake to have the Cougars prepared to win the game, versus treating it solely like an exhibition. The problem with Deion Sanders’ still young coaching career is that we don’t know what he actually thinks about a mid-tier Bowl game, so we have to tread lightly.
Pick: BYU +4 if you need a play in pools, or if you need a small bet - wait until kickoff and bet BYU at the best number available
Louisiana Tech vs. Army (-16.5, 43.5)
Dec. 28 (9:00pm ET) - Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
Projected spread: Army -17.6
Opening line: Army -14.5
My early bet: NoneIt’s not ideal, but at least Marshall admitted they had no collective interest in playing in the Independence Bowl. At first, the Thundering Herd accepted the invite, but after the head coach gleefully left town, and virtually all the players hit the portal, a replacement team needed to be found.
Kudos to Louisiana Tech for filling in at the local Bowl game, and were it against almost any other opponent they might pull a surprise, but they’re likely to get smoked by Army.
The Bulldogs managed five wins out of Conference USA: Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Sam Houston State, UTEP, and Middle Tennessee. Not exactly the heavy-hitters nationally.
Army spent the early part of the season playing similarly rated teams as those above, starting 8-0, and winning by the following margins: 17, 23, 28, 42, 34, 17, 17, and 11.
When the Black Knights played Notre Dame, that was a bridge too far, but they again won handily in the AAC Championship, beating Tulane by 21.
If you could ever accuse Army for not being prepared for a fight, a surprise loss to Navy might qualify - a week after winning a conference title, but it also means they’re probably going to at full focus for the finale of a phenomenal season, and, of course, there are no opt-outs from the Cadets.