Group of 5 betting preview: Making money in College Football’s second tier
Don’t worry, the “Power-5” may have become a “Fantastic-4” but the Group of 5 is still intact and whoever ends up with the best resume has a place reserved for it in the new 12-team College Football Playoff. Since bets won on college football’s second tier still count. Let’s take a quick look at each of the five conferences that are going to fill in the betting blanks for us each Saturday afternoon.
American Athletic Conference
Best bets
South Florida (+700, FanDuel)
With road conference games against UTSA, South Florida, and Tulane - not to mention a trip to Tallahassee - I can’t buy Memphis at +230, so in digging for a high-upside play to make the American title game, we’ll take a team that might be on the come-up.
South Florida’s offense started cooking last year under Alex Golesh (first-year head coach, coming from Tennessee) and improved from 1-11 to 7-6. What if there’s another bump in store with potential star quarterback Byrum Brown getting a full offseason to develop with Golesh?
The Bulls host Memphis at the end of September, and if they can win a track meet (they lost 59-50 last year) in a game where I have them as a tiny favorite, then we’ll have the inside track at a spot in the AAC Championship.
Tulane: Under 7.5 (+120, Bet365)
Under Willie Fritz (and with a talented, smart quarterback in Michael Pratt) and various NFL talents, the Green Wave were good for an upset of a top G-5 team or even a mid-level power conference squad. Fritz is in Houston now though, and Tulane’s non-conference schedule has them as the underdog against Kansas State, Oklahoma and Louisiana.
If early losses bum out the New Orleans fanbase, how much of a home-field advantage will they have against South Florida? Will they be physically worn down? Will an inexperienced quarterback not pan out under a new head coach?
By the time the season finale with Memphis comes around, maybe Tulane will already have suffered a fifth loss, but coming into that game with a 7-4 record sets us up nicely with a plus-money ticket on their under.
Rice: Over 6.5 (-134, FanDuel)
Depending on how Fritz’s new team in Houston looks, Rice might start the season 3-0 with E.J. Warner mercifully escaping Temple to take the reins of a sneaky good Rice offense (27th nationally in EPA/play). Even if they’re 2-1, games against Army, Navy, Charlotte, and UConn should be wins, leaving them just having to win one of a pair of coin-flip games against UTSA or at UAB.
Sun Belt Conference
Best bets
Texas State (+375, Bet365)
I’ve got seven teams within five points of each other in the Sun Belt, so on the surface taking one of the teams with the longest odds in that group would the value play, and I’d have a hard time arguing with you if you did. However, a condensed upper echelon in the conference might mean that we’re getting a better price than we normally would on a team with a pretty clear advantage.
With Curt Cignetti leaving James Madison for Indiana, the one key player he didn’t take with him was Jordan McCloud. But McCloud didn’t stay with the Dukes, he moved to the fourth team of his college career, the already high-octane offense of Texas State. So, the leading passer in the conference is now on the team who scored the most.
If there were two or three good teams in the conference, we’d likely be looking at something around +200 for the Bobcats. Especially since the Sun Belt is still clinging to a divisional format, allowing TSU to miss Appalachian State, while getting Louisiana at home.
James Madison: Over 8.5 (+130, Bet365)
We’ve talked a fair amount about what’s left James Madison, but the cupboard’s not left bare. The Dukes are bringing in a veteran Power-5 quarterback in Dylan Morris, who, with an offensive coordinator that lit up the FCS ranks last year, should be able to keep JMU’s scoring totals up. All five of their incoming transfers on offense are seniors.
The Dukes’ calling card has been defense, as they were top-20 in defensive EPA/play last season. Lyle Hemphill comes over from Duke to lead a group that’s also loaded with upperclassmen transfers.
Troy: Under 6.5 (-115, Bet365)
For a defending champion, Troy’s win total might seem low. But while they have the same challenges as James Madison - a new coach and a poor rating in transfer activity and returning production (TARP) - there’s far more uncertainty when it comes to who’s going to replace a star quarterback for the Trojans. After two-and-a-half years of knowing what they’ll get from Gunnar Watson, play at the pivot is up in the air. While Goose Crowder somehow tops Gunnar in name, on-field expectations have to be tempered.
You can almost definitely put the Trojans down for a 2-2 non-conference record, but where it gets dicey is a tough Sun Belt slate where there’s only two matchups where they’d be considered significant favorites if they were contested today.
Mountain West Conference
Best bets
Wyoming (+1800, FanDuel)
Boise State’s one of two teams to get the odds-on favorite treatment in their conference, so we’ll tread lightly on betting on someone else here, looking for a team at long enough odds that if they can make the Mountain West Championship, we’ll have enough leeway for a possible buy-back on the Broncos if they’re as good as everyone seems to think.
Wyoming has a defense that should travel, but they don’t have to do much in-conference with just three road games (San Jose State, New Mexico, Colorado State). I have them as the third-best team in the conference, but their odds suggest they’re sixth, making them a valuable play to possibly have six wins in the Mountain West. If they can pull off an upset at home against Boise in a game I have them as a small underdog in, maybe they can crush the Broncos’ hopes as well.
Nevada: Under 2.5 (-115, Bet365)
I don’t see a win on the schedule for the Wolf Pack.
That’s the type of sentence you need to see when playing the under on a 2.5 win total.
Last year’s 2-win season featured a 33-6 loss in Nevada’s lone game against an FCS opponent, so their matchup with Eastern Washington shouldn’t be considered a sure thing. Their next-best chance for a win is a home game with Georgia Southern, who will likely come in as the favorite.
With Nevada’s talent deficiency compared to the rest of the conference, uncertainty at quarterback, and the schedule doing them no favors, let’s not be afraid to take the Pack under a low total.
San Jose State: Under 4.5 (-115, Bet365)
Ken Niumatalolo moves clear across the country from a long stretch in Annapolis, and if you think that’s kind of a weird fit, I’m right there with you. The Spartans should have three wins in their sights (Sacramento State, Kennesaw State and Nevada), but they’re likely a double-digit underdog until a season finale with Stanford. Even if they win that potential coin-flip game, they’ll need to score a big upset somewhere along the way. Something that a group in flux may not be ready for.
Mid-American Championship
Best bets
Bowling Green (+700, Bet365)
The MAC provides a particularly odd scenario, since we’re discussing who might win the conference in the heat of August, knowing the league will be decided in the type of winter weather conditions we can’t even come up with a name for - slurries? snow-phoons? a blizzard-cane-oramas? - all so that the championship can be inside a dome.
Defending champion Miami’s the favorite, but that seems predicated on the idea that 11th-year senior Brett Gabbert is going to be healthy for a full season. While Toledo lurks as the second choice, Tucker Gleason will have to improve a great deal on how he produced when he replaced DeQuan Finn at times last year.
Which leaves Bowling Green, with their own veteran quarterback in Connor Bazelak, and a season finale home game with Miami. The COVID season was a disaster for Scott Loeffler - ill-timed chaos for a rebuilding effort during Year 2. In the last three years, there’s been progressive improvement for the Falcons and with some legit weapons at play for Bazelak there might a be a higher ceiling than the market thinks.
Bowling Green will (hopefully) be sharpened in impossible games with Penn State and Texas A&M, but if they win at Toledo (who have a poor TARP rating) or knock-off the Redhawks in the finale, they could finish 7-1 and make the MAC title game.
Northern Illinois: Under 6.5 (+100)
It’s always scary to fade Northern Illinois, because Rocky Lombardi can will the Huskies to victo… wait a sec, I’m being told Lombardi is in Bengals training camp!?
For the first time since 2020, NIU goes into the season without Lombardi penned into the starting job. The incumbent is Ethan Hampton, but I question whether he has the same “je ne sais quoi” that Lombardi had to push less-talented Huskies’ teams further than expected.
We can give them Western Illinios, Buffalo, UMass and Akron. But are there three more wins on the slate? They’ll need to go to Ball State and Western Michigan in pick’em-esque games, win BOTH those, and THEN (at six wins and already bowl eligible) chase Bert Emmanuel Jr around in the season finale.
Given that Plan B is a win at Notre Dame, NC State, Bowling Green, Miami or at home over Toledo - all teams that are seemingly out of this edition of Northern Illinois’s league - an even-money bet is the play.
Conference USA
Best bets
Liberty’s a cut above the rest of Conference USA and has the cozy schedule for another undefeated season, with their CFP resume coming down to winning at Appalachian State and then hoping the playoff selection committee overlooks the Flames getting blown off the planet in the Fiesta Bowl last year.
In situations like this, we can reframe Liberty to win Conference USA as the type of investment that should pay off at 50% ROI, but if it doesn’t, you lose it all. That’s entirely a risk tolerance question, but given a first-place Liberty team would host the title game, they’d likely be better than a touchdown favorite, or close to -300 on the moneyline.
Liberty hosts Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky, and they’d likely have to lose both not to finish 7-1 - which still gets them into the CUSA championship game, even if they have to play on the road.
Finally, if you need help defining value, FanDuel has Liberty at -195 (66.1% implied win probability), while most other places have the odds set at -210, a 1.6% edge from price-shopping alone.
Sam Houston State: Under 4.5 (+110)
As the odds indicate, there’s a pretty big gap between the aforementioned top-3 in the conference and the rest. Sam Houston State had a nice FBS debut last year, so they get a small nod to be the fourth choice. The Bearkats scored just 20 points per game, relying on a surprisingly great defense. Of their four conference home games, two come against Western Kentucky and Liberty, and that defense will be heavily tested in their non-conference home games with Hawaii and Texas State. There’s no definitive answer at quarterback to turn the offense around, and the Bearkats aren’t likely to catch anyone by surprise this year, so getting a plus-price on the under is worth a bet.