Heisman Trophy betting preview: Who to buy stock in before the season starts?
If you’re reading, or listening to, a Heisman Trophy betting preview, and there’s no admission that most awards are fundamentally broken by the short-attention spans of voters then they’re not worth all that much.
Let’s look at last year. If there was an MVP for the season, Michael Penix would have won it by a landslide. He put up monster numbers early and fought through injury late to led an undefeated team much further than most anyone predicted. Washington’s defense was just good enough where he didn’t have to pile up stats in the fourth quarter of many games, since they were already blowouts.
Jayden McDaniels was a combination of a video game and a YouTube reel, and big numbers - augmented by the necessity to cover for his team’s porous defense - acted as a shiny bauble that voters couldn’t resist, having gotten bored with Penix’s efficiency and focus on team success.
Betting on Penix, as we did before the season, was a great move. Buying something at 16-to-1 and seeing it shorten to odds with a minus in front of it is - by definition - a good bet. Daniels was 10-to-1 preseason, and if you had waited… and waited… you could have read the tea leaves and bought Daniels in November.
This is exactly what we did the season before with Caleb Williams.
In 2022, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud were the preseason favorites, but slowly, it became clear that it wasn’t their season. Luckily, we did see that one coming and were able to buy in on the hot-hand before the market caught up.
Heisman betting giveth and it taketh away, but patience is a virtue.
How to win the Heisman Trophy
There are fundamentally two types of Heisman winners:
Type I: Awesome players on decent teams with outrageous stats
Type II: Leaders on title-contending teams with near-outrageous stats
Type I Candidates
The players who need to combine video game numbers with highlight plays, can only be determined by the eye test. You knew what was possible on your first glimpse of Manziel, Jackson, RG3, and Williams.
Complicating things this year is that the bar should be raised regarding team performance for Heisman contenders. In the past, you could excuse a star player from Texas A&M, Louisville, Baylor, or USC for not making the national title game or the College Football Playoff. With just four playoff spots available, the best teams in the country were too much for one player to overcome.
With a 12-team playoff, if you’re a star quarterback and you can’t drag your team into the tournament, your candidacy will likely take a hit. Given LSU finished No. 13 last year, theoretically finishing outside the playoff cutoff (even before factoring that a Group of 5 team gets one of the 12 spots), one wonders if that might have swung voters back to Penix. With the best players from the best teams taking up the top of the oddsboard, these “type I” candidates are worth a small bet to start a Heisman portfolio.
Ollie Gordon (+8862, Pinnacle)
It’s going to take a lot for a tailback to win the Heisman from now until the rest of time. However, we have the rare situation of a running back returning after winning the college rushing title. Gordon ran for 1732 yards and only 109 of those came in the first three games, when Mike Gundy didn’t know what he had, giving Gordon just 19 total carries. The coaching staff knows what’s up now, so if Gordon can make a run at 2000 yards, the Cowboys don’t need to make the playoff for him to get attention.
Luther Burden III (+9818, Pinnacle)
Tetairoa McMillan (+15000, FanDuel)
Of the top 10 receivers by yardage last year, three are back this season. Luther Burden III has a quarterback capable of getting him the ball and a team that, as the 14th choice, has a chance to make the playoff if they can win one of their few big SEC games.
It’s going to be tougher for Tet McMillan to get attention at Arizona, but unlike the 5’9 Burden, McMillan is 6’5 and from an eye test perspective, might be THAT dude. Noah Fifita and the old Wildcats’ staff noticed, and McMillan caught 38 passes for 649 yards in the final four games of 2023. It’s unlikely he steps right into a pace that would push 2000 yards, but there might be a 1700-yard season on the horizon. Only two power conference receivers have pulled that off since 2014:
Ja’Marr Chase (Joe Burrow’s Heisman year)
DeVonta Smith (Won the Heisman!)
Trevor Etienne (+10000, FanDuel)
With fewer established weapons to throw to this year, with Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey in the NFL, maybe Carson Beck turns to hand the ball off more this season in Athens. Travis Etienne’s brother has some name recognition, and was sought-after enough to be brought into Athens as a transfer, which suggests he’s more likely to be a lead ‘back, compared to the usual timeshare that Kirby Smart could deploy in the past. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry as a freshman and 5.7 last year at Florida. My guess is the holes will be wider behind the Bulldogs’ offensive line, and that may translate to him being the best offensive player on the best team.
Type II Candidates
There are plenty more of these on the past winners list above, and in many ways, like when Mr. Burns was shot in a Simpsons season finale years ago, everyone in town’s a suspect.
Dillon Gabriel (+717, Pinnacle)
The favorite is so for a reason, but unlike years’ past when Caleb Williams and Bryce Young came is as a favorite at half the odds, this is a decent price for a proven quarterback on a team we think is a national title contender. Gabriel can replicate Nix’s 2023 stats - that had Oregon beat Washington in the PAC-12 title game, would have earned him the Heisman. With an easy early schedule, there’s a strong chance these odds drop quickly before a showdown with Ohio State.
Cam Ward (+2200, Betano)
It was FCS, but Cam Ward has thrown 47 touchdowns in a season, so at least he knows what dominant stats look like. Ward was 8th nationally in passing yards playing in Pullman last year, so a warmer climate and better talent around him should give him a chance at 4000 yards and better than 30 touchdowns. More importantly, if Miami finally is back, BACK, then who gets the credit for their return to prominence? Mario Cristobal in-game coaching rep is somewhat shaky, so the new dual-threat quarterback on the scene is going to get some extra hype. If Miami tops Florida in one of the featured games of Week 1, these odds are dropping, so there’s no time to waste in adding Ward to your portfolio.
Seth Henigan (+25000, FanDuel)
It’s a mega-longshot play here on a veteran quarterback with 3800 yards last season, who could take his team to the College Football Playoff. Memphis will have to beat Florida State in Week 3 and they’re going to be close to 2-touchdown underdogs, but if they pull off an early-season stunner, a spotlight should go straight to Henigan and the Tigers and stay there for as long as they keep winning. With a path to checking off the three things you’d need to have to win the Heisman (a big-time upset, team success, huge stats), Henigan is worth a couple dollars at the right price.