Monday Night Football best bets
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets look to stay at peak vibes in San Francisco
For most viewers, the first prop of note for the season premier of Monday Night Football is “Aaron Rodgers: Over/Under 4.5 snaps.”
That fourth play is going to be electric.
While the Jets fans’ likely could have done without being scheduled for the first Monday-nighter again this year, apparently the NFL thinks that we need to get New York on primetime early this season (seven of their first 11 are standalone games), with none scheduled after Week 12’s bye. As we saw last season, if Rodgers is removed from the equation, interest in the Jets crashes.
The 4-time MVP is healthy now though, and the vibes are high for New York, but we’ll see if that translates to a ticket-winning performance against one of the top teams in the NFL of the last five years.
Jets @ 49ers (-4.5, 43.5)
Don’t believe me about the vibes? The 49ers opened -5.5 early in the summer, the Jets took money on the over for the win total, and in many sportsbooks, became the favorite for the AFC East. Combine that with question marks popping up for San Francisco with the contract issues the kept Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams questionable for the start of the season, and the line dropped to as low as -3.5.
We’re back to -4, though, and that’s enough to put me on the Jets, even though I’ve:
Steered cleared of betting the Jets for any season-long success (beyond a flier on Garrett Wilson to catch the most passes this season)
Bet into markets under the assumption that Rodgers will not make it through a 17-game NFL season
The high market rating for the Jets is based on the premise that they won seven games without legitimate quarterback play last year, and now they’re going to have that. For however long that actually is the case, it should be true Monday night.
Even if there’s Rodgers rust, how the game will be kept close will be due to defense for New York. Even with the return of Trent Williams, there are still some questions on the 49ers’ offensive line, particularly in an interior asked to deal with one of the most dominant defensive tackles in the NFL in Quinnen Williams in this matchup. If Christian McCaffrey’s ankle/Achilles injury compromises his ability to keep the Jets’ pass rush honest, it could be tough sledding for the usually efficient offense.
Both teams should move the ball, but - like most games - whether they convert in the red zone will decide the total. However, Brock Purdy’s proclivity for turnover-worthy throws might rear its head with the pressure the Jets should create at times.
Rodgers will play it safe, getting the ball to Wilson and Breece Hall in areas where they can make plays, without trying too many tight-window throws.
With the market expecting a 24-20 type of game, I’ll take the points with the Jets, expecting the rejuvenation we’ve heard so much about to manifest in their best effort.
Pick: Jets (+4.5, Bet365)
Breece Hall: Over 15.5 rush attempts (+102, FanDuel)
Towards the end of last season, there wasn’t any reason to put unnecessary mileage on the Jets’ best offensive player, but in the season finale, they did it anyway. Breece Hall had 37 carries - presumably to make a run at 1000 yards (he fell just shy).
Coming off an ACL injury, Hall rarely got full workhorse duties during the season. Especially since the Jets were often trailing late in games. The last time Rodgers played a full season, he handed the ball off over 400 times. He’s not afraid to audible into a run play if the defense allows for it.
The 49ers’ run defense was very much “mid” last year. Particularly odd for a team that spent so much time leading. You’ll remember Aaron Jones running through San Francisco for 108 yards, and then the Lions’ duo combining for 138 yards in the NFC title game. If San Francisco comes in with the mindset to not let Rodgers beat them, he’ll happily give the rock off to Hall, 17 years his junior.
Brandon Aiyuk: Under 54.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
For Kyle Shanahan, it’s pretty clear there are “Aiyuk games” and there are games where other Niners’ weapons have a better chance for success, based on the opponent.
Aiyuk 100+ yard games in 2023: 7
Aiyuk sub-60 yard games: 8
Just once in 16 games played did Aiyuk have just a lukewarm statistical game.
As the primary outside threat on the 49ers’ offense, and Sauce Gardner likely to focus on him, what’s more likely for the Niners’ most hot/cold player?
An “Aiyuk” game
Shanahan uses the newly-signed receiver mostly as a decoy and lets the rest of the offense play 10-on-10
For reference, if you’re a fantasy football player, Fantasy Pros has this as a 2-star matchup for Aiyuk.
George Kittle: Longest reception - over 18.5 yards (-114, FanDuel)
Maybe I’ve watched Receiver too recently, but we know Kittle doesn’t go down easily. The deep-middle is the place to matchup with the Jets’ defense, and when Purdy looks to his tight-end - who might have to stay in to block more than we’d like if we bet him to do anything else - it will be on a play designed to find him in space, deeper than the Jets’ linebackers.
Deebo Samuel: Anytime touchdown (+160, FanDuel)
Running into the New York front-seven seems dumb.
So does testing Gardner with contested end zone balls to Aiyuk.
How do you beat a defense that should gain an advantage in the interior?
Misdirection, getting the strongest player you have outside the tackle-box, and dare Gardner and the other Jets’ defensive backs to haul down Deebo Samuel. The other San Fran Netflix star scored in eight (66% or -200 odds) of the 12 games he was prominently involved in (not counting an injury and a Week 18 cameo).
Mike Williams: Anytime touchdown (+265, DraftKings)
Rodgers isn’t even the biggest wild card on the Jets. That superlative belongs to Mike Williams.
The newest Jet weapon, had nine touchdowns in 2021, before injury-plagued seasons in ‘22 and ‘23 limited him to five in 18 games. However, if you can remember far back enough to the games he played healthy, you remember he was a regular jump-ball/fade pattern candidate for the Chargers.
He may not ever be fully capable again, and we’ll have a better idea of that after Monday night. The other result is that he’s back to his old self, and we’re getting a steal of a deal, with a payout of +265 to score (at DraftKings), much higher than at virtually any other point in his career, when a touchdown for Williams was commonly priced around +150.