Monday Night Football: Best bets for a December double-feature
Searching for value in Bears-Vikings and Falcons-Raiders
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Oh, to be young again.
That’s the vibe for this random Monday night double-dip, since it triggers memories of the old days - you know, September of 2024… and “Week 7 of this season.”
Ok, so, maybe not the nostalgia the league was going for, but like that extra present you throw under the Christmas tree to make it look like you really went all out this year, the NFL’s throwing ESPN/ABC another late-season game to round out the $2.7 billion it pays the NFL annually - or, just slightly more than your gift budget this year.
Admittedly, the games are thoroughly mediocre, and would be considered a lump of coal on their own, but since there are two of them? All of sudden we’re making more holiday-season memories. Hopefully, by winning a few bets, as we make our own list and, this Monday, check it twice.
Bears @ Vikings (-7, 44)
Unlike the other young quarterbacks that have been rattled for 60 minutes by Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ elaborate and various blitzing schemes, Caleb Williams has already been through that experience once this season. That’s something, right?
Chicago might be merely playing out the string, as evidenced by their embarrassing performance last week against San Francisco, but that’s usually the best motivator for NFL teams at this point in the season. Add in the spotlight of the (demi-)Monday Night Football stage, and we can probably expect some level of focus from the Bears.
Whether or not that translates to hanging around with the Vikings - who took an 11-point lead into the 2-minute warning a few weeks ago in Chicago, would be easier to assess if slow first halves weren’t already a Bears’ habit.
The Vikings’ have moved the ball well to start games, even when that hasn’t translated into points. Usually, the Bears get their offense going in the second half. Let’s say Chicago - inspired by last week’s showing - do ANYTHING in the first half, this game should find its way over a relatively short total.
Pick: Over 44 total points (-108 at DraftKings)
Caleb Williams: Longest pass completion - Under 34.5 yards (-115 at DraftKings)
The Bears managed a pair of long completions in that Week 12 matchup with Minnesota, which was surprising, given the Vikings have only given up a couple other such passes since their Week 6 bye. That game also marked the only time Williams has connected on a pass of longer than 34 yards in the Bears’ last five games.
Fundamentally, with the change in offensive play-caller/coordinator, the Bears have admitted they can’t block well enough up front to give Williams time for long shots, and they would prefer he keep the scrambling behind the line of scrimmage to a minimum. That all adds up to a quicker release, more efficiency, but less explosiveness.
Aaron Jones: Over 63.5 rush yards (-110 at Bet365)
At 4.8 yards per carry, only three teams are worse against the run than Chicago.
Two weeks ago, trailing throughout their game with the Cardinals, Jones and the Vikings’ run game as a whole, were taken out of the equation. Otherwise, Jones has carried the ball at least 13 times in every other game since their bye. At 4.3 yards per carry in that time, against an average run defense and in a neutral game-state, we’d expect 56 yards from Jones.
Add in the matchup for Jones specifically, and a point spread of -7 that suggests the Vikings are more likely to be carrying a lead late than not, and it’s not a stretch to believe Jones would get over 63.5 yards. Kinda like his 22-carry, 106-yard day in the first meeting with the Bears.
T.J. Hockenson: Anytime touchdown (+240, Bet365)
Sam Darnold, and his play-calling head coach, love throwing touchdowns to the tight end, as evidenced by the five he’s tossed this year, and Kirk Cousins’ eight to the position last year in Minnesota.
Not that there would be actual internal beef, but T.J. Hockenson has to be wondering what he’s got to do to get one of those scores from Darnold. Since he’s been back from last year’s season-ending injury, he’s seen 36 targets in six games, but not one for a score.
Hockenson had five touchdowns last year, so he’s familiar with how it works. No team has allowed more yards per reception to the tight end position, so there’s no reason why Hockenson couldn’t find the end zone from distance. If he doesn’t have his number called near the goal line otherwise.
Cole Kmet: Anytime touchdown (+420, FanDuel)
Kmet had seven receptions against the Vikings, in one of this three best games of this season. It was a reception total that mirrored Kmet’s output in last year’s late-November Monday-nighter in Minnesota, when a young quarterback (Justin Fields) often looked for the quickest outlet he could find.
The Bears’ tight end didn’t score in either of those games, but did have six touchdowns last season. With only three this year, maybe his run to another half-dozen starts on Monday night.
Same Game Parlay:
T.J. Hockenson - 4+ receptions
Cole Kmet - 4+ receptions
+400Falcons @ Raiders (+5.5, 44.5)
Mid-December in the NFL means things like this come somewhat out of the blue:
Oh, OK.
Meanwhile, it seems like the idea that Aidan O’Connell (who missed practice all week) could play, is more subterfuge than anything else. News of no Crosby and the prospect of Desmond Ridder at the helm, has dropped the Raiders’ already sad market rating down from 25/100 to our artificial floor of 20/100.
That move usually triggers a “grin and bear it” buy low situation, and Monday night is no different, but at least it’s based in elements of logic:
Can you believe the perceived hopes for a Raiders’ upset hinge on whether Aidan O’Connell is available?
Desmond Ridder has had to sub-in, mid-game, twice this season, and while it didn’t result in an offensive revolution, he hasn’t been given a full week of practice with a start yet
The Falcons’ quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his last four games, and has eight interceptions, and is completely immobile.
Does that sound like a situation where the Falcons - desperate for ANY win - should be asked to win by a touchdown?
It’s possible we get offered a better number on Monday.
Once the Raiders tell us that it’s Ridder, the reaction may move the line up a tick to +6. At which point, Las Vegas is a valuable bet, given the week to prepare their mobile quarterback for what should be their highest-energy effort down the stretch - a final primetime game in Las Vegas this season.
Pick: Raiders (Wait to take +6, bet +5 at kickoff if necessary)
Tyler Allgeier: Over 26.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Given Kirk Cousins’ struggles, if the Falcons aren’t expected (or needed) to play a high-scoring game - like they found themselves in Minnesota last Sunday - then why not turn to BOTH their tailbacks?
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 155 yards on 31 carries in Minnesota, after Robinson had 102 yards rushing coming out of the bye the week before against the Chargers.
When healthy, we should expect eight carries for Allgeier, who averages 5.0 yards per carry this season.
Kyle Pitts: Under 2.5 receptions (-104 at FanDuel)
If you’re lacking some confidence in the pocket, throwing to someone you don’t really trust doesn’t sound all that appealing, does it?
Kyle Pitts caught one pass on six targets from Cousins last week, marking the third time in the last four games that he didn’t get even a second reception, let alone a third.
With just six catches on the last 17 times Cousins has gone his way, more playing time for No. 2 tight end Charlie Woerner, and a game plan that should have more running in it, we’ll fade Pitts.
Michael Mayer: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Easy throws.
That should be the plan for Ridder, and it wouldn’t kill O’Connell to be given a few either.
Usually, that’s the starting tight end, but the entire universe knows Brock Bowers is the Raiders’ top target.
What they might not know:
After missing six games with injury, Michael Mayer has been on the field for well over half the snaps, including 81% last week when he caught seven passes on nine targets for 68 yards.
With Bowers getting all the attention, Mayer’s better than a mere afterthought in an offense looking for playmakers.
Sidenote: Mayer provides an interesting “ladder bet” opportunity:
Over 15.5 receiving yards -110 (0.55 units)
20+ receiving yards +135 (0.25 units)
30+ receiving yards +300 (0.15 units)
40+ receiving yards +550 (0.06 units)
50+ receiving yards +1000 (0.03 units)
60+ receiving yards +1500 (0.01 units)Darnell Mooney: Anytime touchdown (+200, FanDuel)
With five touchdowns to Drake London’s six (46% of games played), Darnell Mooney’s been just as much of comfortable connection for Cousins, but priced with an implied probability of 33% compared to London’s 41% .
If they’re similarly likely to break Cousins’ touchdown pass drought, let’s roll with the longer odds on Mooney.
Jakobi Meyers: Anytime touchdown (+220, FanDuel)
In the last five games, Meyers has 53 targets. In the lone game during that span where Meyers didn’t have double-digit looks, the Raiders called a run play for him. If they’re having trouble throwing him the ball, they’ll figure out a way to get it in his hands.
Despite his 8.7 targets per game, we’re still waiting on a third touchdown for Meyers, but you’d expect the positive regression to hit eventually.
Last year, the Raiders ran a rushing play for Meyers in about every fourth game, but this year, they’ve only handed it off to him twice.
One way or another, look for Meyers to be involved near the goal line.
Desmond Ridder: Anytime touchdown (+425, FanDuel)
Let’s buy this on speculation that Ridder’s getting the start, before the odds tighten when that’s official.
The Raiders ran a sneak for a touchdown with O’Connell last week, and Ridder’s much-better mobility (and Vegas’s caution about him throwing in the red zone) makes the former Falcon a candidate to score from a little further out.