Monday Night Football: Best bets for Texans-Cowboys
Last minute plays as Dallas looks for a cure to what ails them
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Apologies for the last minute edition of the Monday Night Football best bets, but under the category of “something’s better than nothing”, it’s an abbreviate edition, since I’ve been hit with an influenza the likes of which would take down several colonies in the 1800s.
Will the Cowboys continue to be as sick at home as I have been for the last 48 hours? The market seems to think… maybe not?
Texans @ Cowboys (+7.5, 41)
Somehow, the Chiefs weren’t able to stay within eight points (despite a 2-score game that was one in name only) in Buffalo, so our plan to have the Texans close a teaser is out the window.
The point spread isn’t anything I’m looking to get involved with though, as it rates the Cowboys as bad (fair), and the Texans as good. The latter part is what makes this game a maybe since it implies Houston will be rolling the moment Nico Collins steps back on the field.
Last week, after the game opened Texans -7.5, supposed sharp money took interest in Dallas, and sportsbooks flirted with -7s. Since then, it’s basically toggled between the two with the “public” all about Houston.
A few weeks back, we noted a funny thing that happened to teams a week after playing the Lions - they stink. In Week 10, no one had that issue, since the Packers were on their bye week. That trend might be enough to talk me off Houston against the spread. However, there’s no reason to want to go to war with the Cowboys, at least when it comes to covering, other than “it’s Monday Night Fooball against their in-state younger cousins” - and we know how well it goes when we expect max performance from Dallas.
Where I want to apply both the “Lions’ effect” and Dallas having another week (plus a day) to work on their offense with Cooper Rush, is in the total.
I likely don’t have to sell you on the Texans’ ability to score on the Cowboys, as just about everyone has in Dallas this season, as, yes, Collins return makes them more explosive. Whatever optimism there is about the Cowboys staying within 7.5 points has to come more from them scoring with Houston, and not shutting them down.
The pain in playing Detroit is defending a group that can hit you in the mouth via the ground, while being vigilant about getting beat deep through the air. Even if the Texans are getting Will Anderson back, that lingering physical and mental soreness might show up defensively.
How much can Dallas take advantage of that? The good news is, they don’t need to produce all that much for those interested in hoping for points. We can insert a joke about the sun being already down, to help the Cowboys’ offense, but an even bigger indictment to the organization is that last week they finally decided maybe just committing to Rico Dowdle as their primary running back is a good idea. If Rush can keep any turnovers a little less ridiculous than “drops shotgun snap that hits him in the chest,” then the Cowboys might be able to move the ball. At their worst, Dallas has been known to tack on a late score (or two) in the games they’re getting blown out in.
I don’t know if a late score gets the Cowboys’ inside 7.5 points, but it would help get the game total over 41.
Pick: Over 41 total points (-110, at Bet365)
CJ Stroud: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102, at FanDuel)
Collins is back, and if you buy into the reports that suggest he could have likely played against the Lions last week, there’s no reason that he should be limited. His yardage total is up, and his anytime touchdown odds are short, so we’ll bet on the Texans to have an improved overall passing game via the finishing move on their drives.
In games both Stroud and Collins finished last year, Stroud threw two touchdowns eight of 14 times. While that’s not well-above 50%, those games weren’t all against a Cowboys’ secondary that’s given up two or more in four of their last five. The lone game it didn’t? Against the 49ers, who were content on running it in without many of their star pass-catchers at full health.
Rico Dowdle: Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110, at FanDuel)
The Texans are very good against the tight end, but the market’s taken note as bets have come in on Jake Ferguson’s unders. If he’s covered, Rush’s easy throws will be going to Dowdle, and since we’ve been told he’ll be on the field more than roughly the 50% snap rate he’s had so far this season, a good receiver out of the backfield should be a popular target.
CeeDee Lamb: Over 0.5 rushing yards (+120, at Bet365)
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Cowboys have to get the ball to CeeDee Lamb one way or another. We know they have this move in the playbook, as Lamb had three carries out of the backfield, and has a rush in five of his last six games.
CeeDee Lamb: Anytime touchdown (+250, FanDuel)
Holding our breath for a Lamb touchdown feels weird for one of the best scoring options in the league, but that’s what happens when Rush is involved and the world is soured after his first start this season. However, it also provides a good price for the Cowboys main weapon.
If we think the Cowboys can at least linger with the Texans on the scoreboard, well, someone’s going to have to score. At +250, we won’t get a better deal on a touchdown from Lamb all season.
John Metchie III: Anytime touchdown (+600, FanDuel)
Collins is back, so now what for Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie?
The duo had stepped in for Collins and Stefon Diggs, but with a little snap-share study, you can decipher that Metchie’s been more of a replacement out of the slot for Diggs. If that’s the case, his role is safe, and with all the attention on Collins, Metchie - who scored his first career touchdown on a career-high five catches and six targets last week - at 6-to-1, he’s worth a bet to score again.
Thanks all, for those wondering where the MNF bets were. You’re all maniacs. I’m proud of you, and I’m proud of us.