Monday Night Football: Best bets for Bills-Jets
Where to find value in battle of two teams in various states of turmoil
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
If only they’ll have something to talk about on ESPN’s Monday Night Countdown.
What collar-less monochromatic get-up do you think Ryan Clark will be draped in? I’m feeling something in a bright blue. I hope he’s got the “RC” broach on too. That thing is mint.
We don’t need to get into the smoldering messiness bubbling to the brim around New York (Thank goodness for baseball!?), in the form of the ousting of now-former head coach Robert Saleh. Aaron Rodgers had nothing to do with it. Right, Guys?… Right?
Meanwhile, the Bills are on their third-straight road game, and looking to avoid their third-straight loss, and if we’re being honest, those games have raised more questions about the Bills than losing in Baltimore and Houston should normally spark.
Bills @ Jets (+1, 40.5)
The first thing you’ll likely hear from mainstream and sports betting media alike, is that the Jets’ should get the old reliable “new coach bump” - that their performance will be better because of a renewed focus from their previous efforts costing their head coach his job.
Is that what’s happening here, though? Do the Jets - at 2-3 after a pair of close losses - even feel that urgency? It’s hard to imagine that Rodgers - rumored to never have been a big fan of Robert Saleh’s and now seeing his hand-picked offensive coordinator stripped of play-calling duty - will feel any guilt.
What we are getting, is Rodgers in primetime - the games he’s always gotten up for in a heightened way during his career. It’s a chance for him to prove that the Jets are better off post-Saleh. That’s unlikely to mean that a run of sustainable greatness is forthcoming, but for one night only at least, he may be enthusiastic about what new play-caller, Brian Downing, is dialling up on the call sheet.
Which brings us to the handicap for the bet. As the line creeps towards pick’em, backing the Jets means paying for this new coach bump concept. However, if there is a boost for New York, it will come on offense. Ideally, the Jets will be less predictable, and perhaps dormant weapons like Breece Hall and Mike Williams will put their imprint on the game. If they don’t, the Jets lose. If they do, and New York scores more than 20 points? The Jets MIGHT win.
The Bills are having their own crisis of confidence, but with their own limitations for playing to the top of their range because of nagging injuries (plus a suspension to Von Miller), and a third-straight road game hurting their chances to recuperate from intense losses, they’re not a side I’m interested in either.
Buffalo couldn’t have looked worse offensively last week, with Josh Allen managing just nine completions. However, they still were able to score 20 points. The Jets’ defense is good but not some impenetrable wall it was made out to be when we were told that all that was missing for Super Bowl contention was Rodgers. In fact, according to ESPN, their pass-rush win rate is 26th in the league, while recent Bills’ opponents, Houston and Baltimore are fourth and 11th, respectively. Allen should have better success.
All that adds up to a perception that both offenses are broken (after a sample size of two games apiece), but reason to believe they can do well in this matchup. Also, a point spread suggesting the closest of games increases the probability for each team needing to score for 60 minutes. So, let’s bet our first Monday Night total of the season, taking the over 40.5 points, and let the Bills and Jets figure out who’s more ready to contend for the AFC East.
Pick: Over 40.5 points (-108)
Josh Allen: Over 18.5 pass completions (-106, Pinnacle)
Unlike their pass-rush win rate, the Jets’ run-stuff win rate (RSWR) is actually good. Allowing 3.8 yards per carry in their last three games has put them in the top ten of both RSWR and opponent’s YPC. Meanwhile, James Cook has a nagging toe injury that’s left him questionable, so this game may be on the arm of Allen. That should be fine by him, as we expect the Bills’ offense to get back to the intermediate, tempo-centric pass offense that was successful in the first few weeks.
Braelen Allen: Over 48.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115, Bet365)
Like the Bills with their Allen, the Jets’ are looking to get their best players the ball. The assumption in the market is that means more Breece Hall (his props are on the rise), but Braelen Allen has 4.5 yards per carry to Hall’s 3.0, and 9.0 yards per catch to Hall’s 7.0.
If you were taking over the play-calling, with no allegiances, wouldn’t you look at those numbers and think it might be worth giving Allen the ball an extra time or two?
Since the opener, when Allen was rarely on the field for his first NFL game, he’s been targeted or given the ball 17 total times in the Jets’ two losses, and 25 in the two wins. If he sees the ball ten times, it’s hard to imagine that won’t equate to 50 yards at least.
Dalton Kincaid: Anytime touchdown (+338, Pinnacle)
We’ve seen all we need to see from the 2024 Bills’ receivers. Maybe Khalil Shakir is back this week, but he’s not a reliable red zone target. When Allen’s not rushing it in, or getting it to Cook, the options can get pretty grim. However, if we think Allen has success via the air, it might be because Dalton Kincaid can be the mismatch he was drafted to be, and he can find the end zone for the second time this season.
Mike Williams: Anytime touchdown (+424, Pinnacle)
The assumption of rational coaching - Case #13842:
If you were the new play-caller for the Jets’ offense, and theoretically unbeholden to Rodgers’ want, what’s the play you’d deploy in the red zone?
If it were me, I’d throw a jump-ball, high to Mike Williams. The tape shows Rodgers throwing line drives that don’t quite get there, and back-shoulder tosses that require more timing than Rodgers and Williams have fostered in their brief time together. At big odds for a player who’s always on the field near the goal line, let’s hope Rodgers deploys the “throw it up for Big Mike” strategy that’s worked earlier in his career.