Monday Night Football: Best bets for Browns-Broncos
Denver to cause problems for Winston and the Browns’ secondary
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
With all the football - college and pro - that’s been played in the last 10 days, every other team on both levels has played since the last time the Browns took the field.
Week 12’s Thursday-nighter got more attention than it normally would have, due its snow globe vibes, so many saw the Browns pull off a win over the first-place Steelers.
Meanwhile, it feels like few teams are more under-the-radar than the Broncos, as Denver’s the burgeoning playoff contender, while Cleveland’s season likely peaked by acting as a mild irritant to their nearby AFC North rival.
Browns @ Broncos (-6, 42)
The Browns had it all set up for them against the Steelers, and yet they still found themselves trailing with just a few minutes to go. That alone is a massive red flag if the market is thinking that it needs to increase the rating of Cleveland off that one game.
Admittedly, since Jameis Winston took over from Deshaun Watson, we’ve wondered aloud if the Browns aren’t capable of getting back to the league-average team they have been in past years. However, those hopes hinge on whether they are willing and able to run the ball like the recent best version of themselves. However, on a night that should have set up well for their run game, Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford ran for just 78 yards on 24 carries against the Steelers.
Whether at full-health (or close to it) or not, the Browns’ offensive line hasn’t been able to open the holes they used to, and when it came down to crunch time on the final drives against the Steelers, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey put the game on Winston’s shoulders.
If that’s going to be the common strategy, for all the “fun” of Winston when it’s going well, I’m out. The best results - home wins over the Ravens and Steelers - have come despite turnover-worthy throws almost derailing an otherwise well-played game, and those near-catastrophes are not something I’m willing to rely on avoiding.
As the Browns face the Broncos - tops in the league in yards per play allowed and opponents’ rush yards per attempt, what’s the likelihood things go smoothly for Winston on the road, given his propensity for turnovers?
Before the Browns beat Pittsburgh, the lookahead line for this game was -7, so it’s up to bettors to decide whether a line that reopened -5.5 is because of a legitimate downgrade to the Broncos (not the case after they covered on the road in Las Vegas), or whether the Browns and worthy of an upgrade.
With this line creeping up again to -6, there are signs that -7 might have been the right number all along, so we’ll play the favorite on Monday night.
Pick: Broncos (-6)
Jerry Jeudy: Under 4.5 receptions (-114 at FanDuel)
Jeudy was clearly Winston’s favorite target against the Steelers, which should mean one thing - the former Bronco gets a healthy dose of Pat Surtain II on Monday night. Whether it’s due to Denver’s shutdown corner, or the defensive scheme as a whole, here’s how the opponents’ top options have fared this season:
Week 1: DK Metcalf - 3 rec, 29 yards
Week 2: George Pickens - 2 rec, 29 yards
Week 3: Mike Evans - 2 rec, 17 yards
Week 4: Garrett Wilson - 5 rec, 41 yards
Week 5: Jakobi Meyers - 6 rec, 72 yards
Week 8: Xavier Legette - 4 rec, 34 yards, TD
Week 9: Zay Flowers - 5 rec, 127 yards, 2 TD
Week 10: DeAndre Hopkins - 4 rec, 56 yards
Week 11: Drake London - 3 rec, 61 yards
Week 12: Brock Bowers - 4 rec, 38 yards
Only Flowers had a big game against the Broncos defense.
With Cedric Tillman out on Monday, Denver can force Winston to go to either Elijah Moore or David Njoku to beat them.
Bo Nix: Longest pass completion - Over 33.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
There was a small window of time - basically just the first half - where it was even possible for a long completion, before it started aggressively snowing in Cleveland two Thursday ago, and yet, the Browns’ oft-confused secondary allowed an arm-punt completion from Russell Wilson. It was the first time an opponent had completed a pass over 30+ yards in Cleveland after November 1st since 2021.
Their general incompetence outdid historical precedent.
Only two teams have allowed more yards per pass attempt than the Browns, and they often get victimized with no defender remotely near the pass-catcher.
Bo Nix and Sean Payton have found the mind-meld the head coach was hoping for when he thought highly enough of Nix to draft him higher than most thought he should go. In each of their last two games, four different receivers have caught passes of 20+ yards, and six different players have done so in the last three games (Courtland Sutton, Adam Trautman, Devaughn Vele, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Marvin Mims, and Troy Franklin).
The Broncos are scheming players open and Nix is connecting with them for big chunks of yardage.
Devaughn Vele: Over 3.5 receptions (+100 at DraftKings)
Only Courtland Sutton plays more than Vele, as the rookie continues to emerge, with a season-high nine targets last week, catching 19 of 24 targets in his last five games. Nix and Payton spread the ball around, but at 6’5, Vele provides the biggest target over the middle.
Bo Nix: Anytime touchdown (+300, FanDuel)
Nix leads the Broncos with four rushing touchdowns (and has a receiving touchdown, so we know that’s in the playbook), and since there are no guarantees about who the high-usage tailback will be between Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin, we’ll rely on Nix to call his own number for a score.
Troy Franklin: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)
As indicated by how many different receivers have caught long passes, it’s a similar situation when it comes to receivers. Sutton’s got five scores, but after that, Franklin is the only other wide receiver with more than one. Though four receivers have shorter odds to score. Look for the Broncos to run a play specificly for Franklin near the goal line, and he’s also a deep threat capable of taking advantage of the Browns’ habit of coverage blunders.
Nate Adkins: Anytime touchdown (+2000, FanDuel)
Along with Franklin, Adkins has a pair of touchdown catches this season.
While his odds vary from sportsbook to sportsbook, if you can find him at 20-1, like he is at FanDuel, he’s worth a half-unit to see if he’s left open in the end zone. With six catches on seven targets this season, he’s shown reliable hands, and he’s been on the field for between 20% and 60% of the snaps since taking the roster spot of Greg Dulcich, who the Broncos felt free to waive this week.