Monday Night Football: Best bets for Buccaneers-Chiefs
Why Tampa Bay has a chance to crack K.C.’s undefeated season
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
The Chiefs put their undefeated season on the line and we can go ahead and spoil it - all the pregame show talking heads will be plastering the Chiefs’ logo next to their names.
Maybe I’ve missed it, but the age-old social media practice of screenshotting the pregame panel’s picks (when they’re unanimous) and making fun of them when they lose, hasn’t happened much if at all this season. Maybe there’s been more self-aware “saving the graphic” done by selfless hosts, or maybe there have been less upsets?
In fact, there hasn’t been an upset of more than 2.5 points in a night game since the Commanders won in Cincinnati on Monday night in Week 3 (a week after the Falcons upset Philadelphia).
A Buccaneers’ win would be quite a twist, since they’re +350 (just an implied 22.2% chance of winning pre-vig). So, why should we think Tampa has more hope than that?
Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-9.5, 45.5)
We’re not going negative in this campaign, but there are a few holes in Kansas City’s seemingly pristine platform.
On the rare occasions when the Chiefs lose, most of the time, it’s because they beat themselves (Last year: Five turnovers in a loss to Denver, two defensive touchdowns against vs. Las Vegas). With nine interceptions in their seven games this season, Mahomes has left Kansas City vulnerable against some middling teams - Bengals, Falcons, Chargers, Raiders. For various and different reasons for each, the offenses of those teams couldn’t make the Chiefs pay.
Is Tampa’s offense capable of that though?
As far as I can tell, this point spread is this high because the betting market doesn’t like that Baker Mayfield is without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, there are two reasons this concern might be overblown.
The Buccaneers’ offensive success this season has been centred around a new-found run game. They’re tied for 4th in yards per carry, with new additions, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, pushing Rachaad White, so that every time any of the trio has the ball, the runner is carrying the ball as if his life depends on it. It’s a considerably different offensive outlook for Mayfield with new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen.
On a short week after the dual injuries to his big name targets, Mayfield spread 330 yards around to 10 different pass-catchers against the Falcons. With that game under their belt, rookie Jalen McMillan, veteran Sterling Shepard can get comfortable with the idea that they’re among the first reads, instead of an afterthought. While second-year players Rakim Jarrett and Trey Palmer get used to having a legitimate role. Plus, Cade Otton now knows he needs to be as much of a factor as his famous K.C.positional counterpart. Oh, and the team allowing the most yardage to opposing tight ends this season? The Kansas City Chiefs.
Can the Bucs win the turnover battle against the Chiefs? If we knew the answer to that question before every game, we’d rarely lose a bet. However, we’re not asking Tampa Bay to win outright. Instead, we’re hoping they’ll stay competitive in a game that would likely be lined just under a touchdown if it weren’t for a pair of wide receiver injuries that the Bucs can compensate for.
Pick: Buccaneers (+9.5, at FanDuel)
Baker Mayfield: Under 34.5 pass attempts (-110 at Bet365)
Just because Mayfield’s targets may be a little more comfortable with their new roles, doesn’t mean the Bucs’ quarterback should want to get loose with the ball, slinging it all around. The key to competing on Monday night will be balance.
The Chiefs don’t blow teams out, so rarely has the opposing quarterback felt compelled to drop back endlessly in the second halves. Not since Week 2, has an opposing quarterback thrown more than 34 times against Kansas City, as opponents average 32.7 attempts per game - a number largely affected by Lamar Jackson’s 41 in the season opener.
Kareem Hunt: Longest rush - Under 13.5 yards (-110 at Bet365)
Since returning to Kansas City for a second stint, Hunt has carried the ball 84 times and we’re still waiting for a rush longer than 13 yards. When the Chiefs’ look for an explosive run, they draw something up for Xavier Worthy or Mecole Hardman, but Hunt’s role is to reliably churn yardage and not fumble, not necessarily to pop a big run.
The Bucs’ defensive rush metrics don’t look great this season, but they’ve faced the Lions’ duo, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson (twice) in five of their games this season. Hunt’s not on their level.
Noah Gray: Over 21.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Gray missed going over his prescribed total by a yard or two last week, but apparently that just means that the bar is lower this week. His production was something of a statistical anomaly, since Gray usually averages in the double-digits per catch, and he caught three balls for 23 yards. With the number a little lower and Gray still catching every pass he sees (13 straight targets caught), we’ll bet the over again.
Cade Otton: Anytime touchdown (+333, Bet365)
We mentioned Otton’s increased prominence in the Bucs’ offense already, but with 10 targets in each of the last two games, he’s Mayfield’s go-to guy now. It used to be, when Tampa got to the red zone they went to Evans (6 TD) or Godwin (5 TD). Otton is the next man up, with two touchdowns last week. The market’s assumption is that Tampa will have trouble scoring against a good K.C. D’, so there’s value on just about anyone on the Bucs’ to score, if you think they will get a couple touchdowns.
Noah Gray: Anytime touchdown (+480, FanDuel)
Gray’s had touchdowns called back due to penalty, but he hasn’t had one count yet this season. Given the big target doesn’t get the attention that Travis Kelce does, but he’s frequently on the field near the goal line, at nearly 5-to-1 odds, he’s worth a low-risk, high-reward bet to score.