Monday Night Football: Best bets for Saints-Chiefs
The Saints aim to hand the Chiefs their first loss of 2024
The Chiefs put their undefeated record on the line against a quarterback they had seen a fair amount of. That is, until Derek Carr was jettisoned from division-rival Las Vegas at the end of 2022.
Now, with more talent around him than he ever had with the Raiders, Carr will also be relieved to see that he doesn’t have the pressure of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the NFL. Through four weeks, we’ve been reminded that the 2-time defending Super Bowl champions are doing it with defense and just enough scoring, instead of daring you to keep up with the 30+ points they were going to score in years’ past.
Saints @ Chiefs (-5.5, 43.5)
Like most of the NFL, we’re already deep into injury season. Two weeks after the Chiefs lost Isiah Pacheco, another key difference-maker went down when a Patrick Mahomes’ interception eventually cost them Rashee Rice for this game, and maybe the season. Kansas City’s been able to win games without much depth of offense, because even though they had to put a ton of their salary cap towards quarterback, that QB is Patrick Mahomes.
With Pacheco out, the Chiefs have seen Carson Steele average 3.8 yards per carry, and Samaje Perine average 3.5, so they’ve turned to Kareem Hunt, despite it not being 2018. While Hunt’s already got the longest gain of the trio, at a robust 10 yards, the offensive line isn’t likely to open holes long enough for Hunt to be much of a threat. The Saints’ run defense has been solid against other mediocre rushing attacks (Panthers, Cowboys, and Falcons), while having their overall stats hurt by a big game from Saquon Barkley.
As usual, everything rests on the arm of Mahomes. Which is great if you’re in a close game late. However, his five interceptions are troubling and likely indicative of the combination of Travis Kelce getting the defensive attention he got in his prime, while no longer being in it. Meanwhile, the other options are a rookie and other receivers that even the Chiefs have deemed expendable in the past. It all adds up to leaving us wondering, “What are we supposed to fear?”.
The answer is the Chiefs’ defense. That group finished 7th in DVOA last year, but is down to 15th so far this season.
Speaking of that wide-sweeping advanced metric, as we referenced in our round-robin underdog moneyline parlay (RUMP) article, there’s not much difference between these two teams, as they’ve each been measured as having played well enough to have 2.6 wins. One team is 4-0, the other 2-2.
Since last October, the Chiefs have won 13 games, but only three of those games have come by more than one score.
Versus the Patriots (yikes), the Raiders (yuck), and the ice-cold Dolphins in January (teeth-chatter).
Also referenced last week, Carr’s relatively solid play in a small sample size at the tail-end of his time as a Raider. Having to overcome offensive line injuries could be a struggle in what should be a low-scoring game, but, the Saints have enough playmakers (more than he had with his first team) for Carr and company to stay close in Kansas City - like most of the Chiefs recent opponents in the last calendar year.
Pick: Wait and shop for Saints +6 at -115, bet +5 at kickoff
Derek Carr: Under 31.5 passing attempts (-106 at Pinnacle)
Last week was the first game of the season where Carr threw the ball more than 30 times, and that came thanks to 13 pass attempts in the final 10 minutes of the game. The Saints finished the game with two drives that totalled 21 plays. It’s a scenario that’s unlikely to be repeated even if New Orleans trails late. Mainly because the Chiefs have a better pass defense.
Earlier in last week’s game, the Saints were reminded what can happen when Derek Carr is left to his own devices, as he threw a crucial pick-six.
In a game that should be low-scoring, with two good defenses, look for the Saints to lean on being conservative with their pass-run splits, while still taking the occasional shot down the field they’ve found success with this season.
Xavier Worthy: Over 2.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Last week was the first game all season that the Chiefs didn’t get their rookie speedster a carry. Somewhat in “manufacture offense mode” and often looking to get a little loose into the playbook in primetime, we’ll bet on the Chiefs to cook something up for Xavier Worthy on the ground. It doesn’t have the sweet payout that our similar play on Tyreek Hill last Monday, but we’ll give it a go.
Alvin Kamara: Anytime touchdown (+105 at Bet365)
It’s a tepid endorsement, and I needed better than even-money odds to click “submit” on a bet, but with Taysom Hill ruled out, Alvin Kamara becomes an even likelier look for the Saints near the goal line. He’s also a different threat than any of the running backs the Chiefs have seen this season, one that can score on the ground and via the pass.
Though Bijan Robinson should be used like Kamara, he’s not.
Juju Smith-Schuster: Anytime touchdown (+563, Pinnacle)
Foster Moreau: Anytime touchdown ( +700, Pinnacle)
Noah Gray: Anytime touchdown (+650, Pinnacle)
Fundamentally, for those of us who grew up in a certain age of 90’s (Canadian) pop-punk, my feelings about this game are summed up nicely by The Killjoys’ moderate north-of-the-border hit, “Today I hate everyone.”
Circumstance and price-shopping has led me to Kamara, but think of it this way - are any of the favorites to score on the Chiefs nearly as likely to score as Kamara?
Meanwhile, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have to deal with one of the better secondaries in the NFL.
I will split a unit three ways on a trio of players who play more than 50% of snaps, have a red zone target this season, have scored a touchdown in the last calendar year, and have odds longer than +500.
Essentially, we can create a single-unit bet that one of the three score at +140:
Smith-Schuster: 0.4 to win 2.25
Moreau: 0.3 to win 2.1
Gray: 0.3 to win 1.95
Plus, there’s the remote chance that two of them score, netting us almost four units.