Monday Night Football: Best bets for Saints-Packers
What to do with a lame penultimate game on the MNF schedule
I don’t know what we did to deserve this matchup.
All you need to know about it, is that it took A WHILE for me to figure out who (active) from the Saints should be featured in the graphic above.
Tyrann Mathieu can consider this a career-achievement award. That dude was electric at LSU and kept it going in the pros for a long time. A rare feat for a defensive back.
Of course, the point spread reflects the teams’ talent discrepancy, leaving the line in the nebulous area of where the Packers could predictably dominate the game, but still not cover. Especially, if they’re thinking about next week’s game with the Vikings once the game is in hand in the fourth quarter.
Saints @ Packers (-14, 42.5)
We know one thing going into this game: If Spencer Rattler’s playing, he’s throwing.
That means multiple things:
You can’t rest on your laurels defensively
Turnovers (and short fields) may abound
The clock won’t be moving as consistently as it would be with a more conservative quarterback
With the betting market projecting a score of 28-14, the game total will likely be decided by whether the Saints can convert any opportunities in the red zone, and that’s not something I want to be sweating directly via the point spread.
However, whether the Saints can put up 7s or 3s, or avoid turnovers or not, the Packers should have consistent urgency to score throughout the game. Especially if Green Bay is without two questionable defensive starters - Quay Walker and Javon Bullock.
Only the Jaguars have allowed more yards per play this season than New Orleans, while the Ravens’ have the only offense gaining more yards per play than Green Bay.
While it’s not exactly going to be balmy, Green Bay has known to be even colder than it will be on Monday night, which should allow for the Packers to not just run the ball well, but also connect on their customary deep shot attempts.
Pick: Packers team total - Over 27.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Spencer Rattler: Over 30.5 pass attempts (-115 at DraftKings)
Rattler has started three games this season. In the two he finished, he attempted 35 and 40 passes. In his other two appearances this season, Rattler threw it 24 times before getting the hook midway through the third quarter against the Chargers, and threw it 21 times in second-half relief of Jake Haener last week.
The Saints have likely seen all they need to from Haener, so, barring injury, this should be 60 minutes of Rattler-mania, and if the Packers have their way offensively, the Saints’ quarterback should be slinging it with reckless abandon.
Romeo Doubs: Over 36.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Doubs was hurt in Week 12 (after three catches for 54 yards), missed two games, but returned last week and managed 40 yards for the fifth time in the seven games Doubs has played since a one-game suspension for skipping practice early in the season.
Doubs combines Christian Watson’s ability to make a play deep, while also leading the Packers in targets per game, ahead of underneath threat Jayden Reed. At full health, a line under 40 yards is too low in a game where the weather shouldn’t be a deterrent to what Green Bay wants to do offensively.
Kendre Miller: Anytime touchdown (+165, DraftKings)
If the Saints are going to convert near the end zone, with Taysom Hill and now Alvin Kamara out, the options have dwindled down to the second-year runner out of TCU. While Jamal Williams was given a few token carries against the Giants two weeks ago, and snaps here and there last week, it would be senseless not to give Kendre Miller a tryout at all things No. 1 tailback. With Rattler not the most reliable decision-maker near the goal line, Miller should get the first shot with the ball in his hands.
Dante Pettis: Anytime touchdown (+1100, Bet365)
The Saints’ receiver room and its related snap count distribution, is all over the map at this point in the season. We’re not betting on Dante Pettis here, so much as we’re throwing a half-unit on whoever has the longest odds out of the following group:
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (questionable, chest)
Kelvin Austin Jr (eight career catches)
Cedrick Wilson (20 snaps last week, three total targets in his last four games)
Dante Pettis (Five targets last week)
Romeo Doubs: Anytime touchdown (+220, FanDuel)
Bet365 is shrugging their odds-making shoulders on who’s most likely to score from the Packers’ receiving corps:
Honestly, who could blame them.
Which is why shopping for the best price on the player you prefer is so important.
FanDuel has ordered it Reed (+200), Watson (+210) and Doubs (+240)
DraftKings has ordered it Doubs (+170), Reed (+190), and Watson (+190)
Who knows who’s “right” in this pricing mashup, but we’re already thinking Doubs’ role might be underrated in the market, and despite scoring twice last Sunday night, he’s got the longest widely available odds of all three of Jordan Love’s wide receivers.
Christopher Brooks: Anytime touchdown (+650, Bet365)
For another half-unit long shot, there was a stretch where the Packers’ third-down back was getting a handful of touches per game. With just three in last two games though, his odds to score his first touchdown are still pretty long. However, when the Packers win comfortably - like against the Dolphins and 49ers, Brooks gets a few more looks (five touches in each of those games).
With this game expected to be a blowout - based on the 14-point spread, maybe ‘tis the season for a hard-working runner to get a play called for him near the goal line.