Monday Night Football: Best bets for Lions-49ers
San Francisco looks to save some face in a NFC Championship Game rematch
While last week’s inclusion of the Saints in a late-season primetime was foolishly optimistic, you can’t blame the NFL for thinking that a rematch of the NFC title game was going to be a banger for the season finale of Monday Night Football.
Alas, spoiler alert: There will be no cliffhanger ending at the end of this game.
The 49ers season went down in flames already, while the Lions don’t really need this game, with a much bigger matchup on deck with the Vikings back home in Detroit for the No. 1 seed in the NFC Playoffs.
Lions @ 49ers (+3.5, 50.5)
You know that stocking-stuffer gift you got that’s this weird brain-teaser puzzle thing?
Let’s start the handicap for this game with one of those. What’s the significance of the following sequence?
0, 0, 0, 14, 3
Those are the Bears’ first-half scoring outputs in their last five games.
Why is that relevant here? Because that outlier 14 came against the Lions last Sunday.
Is this a long way to go to remind you that Detroit’s defense is in some rough shape? Yes, after all, we could have noted the Bills’ 48 points, the Packers’ 24 second-half points, or even the Bears’ 20 second-half points in Week 13, against the Lions.
As bad as it seemed in Miami last week, the 49ers at least averaged 6.1 yards per play, only to go 2-for-5 in the red zone. Meanwhile, in their last three games, the Lions have allowed touchdowns on two-thirds of their opponents’ trips near the end zone.
Luckily for the 49ers, there aren’t expected to be any weather issues in Santa Clara, like they had against the Rams (or the snow in Buffalo), and their offense should move the ball better than it has in many of their recent losses.
Defensively, it’s always a challenge to deal with the Lions, but we’re not asking the Niners to take a lead and hold it. Despite their disappointing record, in their home finale, San Francisco should come in with enough effort to keep this within a one-score game, giving the offense a shot to show the MNF audience that the Niners are still capable of beating the big boys of the NFL, even though they haven’t earned any more chances to.
Pick: 49ers (+3.5, -115 at Bet365)
Jared Goff: Over 244.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Since the wave of Lions’ defensive injuries, Goff’s put the team on his back throwing for 283, 494, and 336 yards in games where (even against the Bears) Detroit has to feel like no lead is safe. With weather not a factor, look for Goff to have the combination of volume and success to go over a modest total.
Brock Purdy: Under 18.5 rush yards (-114 at FanDuel)
After three games where he wasn’t actively scrambling as much as he was at the start of the season, Purdy took off four times in Miami, including a 16-yard gain, because the Dolphins were able to combine pass-rush pressure with solid coverage on the back-end. Neither of which are things the Lions’ have been good at recently.
Purdy should be able to sit back and pick out his receivers, especially those underneath matched up against the Lions’ backup linebackers, without the necessity to run.
Ricky Pearsall: Long reception - Over 13.5 (-115 at Bet365)
Let’s steal last week’s handicap for this market:
In their remaining three games, expect the 49ers to give more looks to their rookie first-round pick who joined the team late (because he got shot)
Has played at least 50% of the snaps in every game played
Four targets in the rain versus the Rams last week and a 16-yard catch
4+ targets in half of Pearsall’s games this season
One other game was in the snow
One other game was with Brock Purdy out
One came in quick blowout over the Bears
Pearsall averages 11.8 yards per reception
Then, against Miami, Pearsall caught all four targets, including a 21-yard reception, but this line hasn’t been reset higher - a rarity after a winning bet.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Anytime touchdown (+100, DraftKings)
Not many receivers rack up a touchdown streak of eight straight games, so it was odd that St. Brown went three games without one. However, he’s been back in the end zone in the Lions’ last two, in conjunction with Goff’s need to throw more than earlier in the season. With more than double the targets of the next Lions’ receiver, St. Brown’s almost as likely to score as Jahmyr Gibbs, but doesn’t come with the debilitating odds if he doesn’t.
Deebo Samuel: Anytime touchdown (+180, FanDuel)
You can’t complain about your targets and then drop them when you get them. That’s what happened the last time Samuel played at home. A week later, fuelled by the embarrassment of primetime dropsies, he had arguably his best performance of the season, carrying the ball five times for 25 yards, and catching seven of nine targets - including a classic “Deebo” touchdown, in Miami.
We know the usage is there, and now that he’s back at home, we should expect Samuel to try to show out. That often means he ends up carrying defenders down the field, and into the end zone.
Ricky Pearsall: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)
Pearsall has just the one touchdown on the season, but given we expect him to be more of a factor in the offense, and he played 72% of snaps in Miami, +550 for Pearsall to score seems like a great deal regardless if he finds the end zone on Monday night - which would be a nice story for the home crowd to feel good about after a rough experience at Levi’s Stadium this season.