Monday Night Football: Best bets for Bengals-Cowboys
I will win all my bets. I will win all my bets. I will win all my bets. I will win all my bets. I will win all my bets.
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
I used to write NFL betting articles with pop culture themes.
All the best bets for a primetime game, but loaded with Red Hot Chili Pepper song titles, or dedicated to a specific Seinfeld episode.
Management did not care for the bit.
Imagine my surprise when the NFL decided they’d literally smash football and a sitcom together on Monday Night Football, using The Simpsons universe to draw a few extra eyeballs towards an otherwise lackluster matchup.
We were already going to watch, since, you know, betting exists, but don’t tempt me with a good time.
Bengals @ Cowboys (+5.5, 49.5)
It wasn’t that long ago that the Cowboys, at Jerry World, looked more like a treehouse of horrors.
Then the Giants came to Dallas for a traditional Thanksgiving bad-football feast for the eyes, like Homer being forced to eat donuts in hell.
Drew Lock (no better this past Sunday at home versus the Saints) threw a pick-six, was sacked six times, and threw for 5.6 yards per attempt against the Cowboys.
Despite poor quarterback play, and one dangerous target (Malik Nabers: 8 recs, 69 yards), the Giants were a Brandin Cooks’ third-down catch away from getting the ball back in a one-score game. If the Cowboys weren’t re-rated after their second-straight (unimpressive) win, this line would be a little higher than Bengals -6.5, but beating the Commanders and Giants is getting Dallas some regard.
As for the Bengals, winning games has been a problem, so why would anyone have interest in laying points with them on the road?
Since Week 1’s no-show against the Patriots, the Bengals have played seven teams currently in a playoff spot. They’re 0-7 outright, and 2-5 against the spread, in those games. However, with some quick math, we know that 4-8 Cincinnati has won four straight against the bad teams in the league - by 10, 10, 7, and 14.
If the rightful complaint about the Bengals is their inability to win close games, the good news is that none of their matchups with the bottom-half of the league have been close.
The reason the Bengals lose against the good teams, and win comfortably against the bad ones is that the former can always score against Cincinnati’s porous defense, while the bad offenses (Panthers, Giants, Browns, Raiders) can’t take advantage.
It’s possible, with a few games under his belt, that Cooper Rush might be able to do some work against Cincinnati, and, laying 5.5 points, the Bengals could be vulnerable to a backdoor cover late.
Instead of betting the full game, we’ll play the first half point spread on the idea that the Cowboys’ won’t be ready for the Bengals’ high-octane passing game. Prior to the Giants’ game, the Cowboys’ halftime deficits were 21, 15, 21, 8, and 7.
Since there’s some value on the game-long point spread at -5.5, it stands to reason that the first half number of -3 is a little short as well.
The Bengals are all-but eliminated from postseason play, but the last thing they want to is to stoop to the level of the NFL’s junior varsity on national television. Especially on a night when, if they’re not careful, they might get turned into Lenny throwing to Karl, while Mr. Burns gleefully sits up in his luxury box getting his glasses cleaned by Smithers.
Pick: Bengals - First half (-3, -115 at Bet365)
Mike Gesicki: Over 24.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
In Weeks 8, 9, and 10, the Bengals’ primary pass-catching tight end was targeted 23 times catching 16 passes in three games.
For those hoping a pass was going to the Cincinnati’s star receiving duo, a throw to Gesicki is like anytime Krusty the Clown comes into a scene - we could do without it. Then Cincinnati went to visit the Chargers, and he went catchless, as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins racked up the yards and touchdowns in L.A.
The Bengals took their bye week, and Burrow went right back to Gesicki, connecting on all five targets last week.
Only four teams have allowed more yards per catch to opposing tight ends, so Gesicki may not need all three of the receptions that would require him to go over his total of 2.5 in that market.
Joe Burrow: Over 24.5 completions (-115 at Bet365)
Like every time Ralph Wiggum gets involved, you can trust Burrow to deliver.
He’s gone over this completion total in seven of the last nine games, with the two unders coming in easy road wins. So, if we’re expecting a similar end-result, why is this game different?
The Bengals’ defense has shown that no foot should be taken off the gas pedal for Cincinnati’s offense, and Dallas should provide more of a threat than the Giants or Deshaun Watson/DTR Browns, keeping Burrow’s urgency levels higher than the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant when Homer’s in charge.
Rico Dowdle: Under 68.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
For as bad as the Bengals’ defense is at holding off the good offenses in the league, their run defense allows just 4.3 yards per carry, which is tied for eighth in the NFL, and if they can take the early lead we expect, there should be very little rushing for the Cowboys in the second half.
Rico Dowdle made fewer cameos in the second level of opposing defenses than Sideshow Bob, but against the Giants and their league-worst run defense, he had long runs, and the role of helping bleed clock.
The Cowboys’ running game should go back to inept, making 66.5 a tougher mark to reach than 677 episodes.
Tee Higgins: Anytime touchdown (+135, DraftKings)
Ja’Marr Chase has a touchdown in eight of 12 games (66% or fair odds of -150), which is why he’s anywhere from -145 to -165 to score.
Tee Higgins has played in just seven games, and has scored in four of them (57.1% or fair odds of -135), but is available at +135.
That’s a better price than anything you’ll find at the Kwik-E-Mart.
Andrei Iosivas: Anytime touchdown (+500, FanDuel)
The Bengals tried so hard to make Jermaine Burton a thing, but he needed to go the way of Maude Flanders - write him off and see if anyone notices.
The Bengals stuck with their three reliable wideouts, as receivers not named Higgins, Chase or Iosivas played all of five snaps against the Steelers.
Iosivas has five touchdowns on just 23 catches this season, which means when he’s targeted, it’s in a big spot. For someone priced at 5-to-1, we just want one good look to validate the bet. With how much he’s on the field, we should get that in Dallas.
Jalen Tolbert: Anytime touchdown (+490, FanDuel)
Tolbert’s snap count came down a little with the return of Brandin Cooks, but pricing someone with four touchdowns this season at just 17% (implied probability) likely is too much of an adjustment.
Second on the team in receiving yards and third in receptions, the third-year receiver has made a significant leap this season, and is likely to get a look from Cooper Rush near the end zone.