Monday Night Football: Best bets for Dolphins-Rams
L.A. to push past Miami with a variety of proposition considerations
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Monday night provides fans and bettors with an interesting matchup between a pair of teams who’ve taken somewhat similar paths to a pivotal primetime cross-conference, cross-coastal quasi-coin-flip game.
The Dolphins missed their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, for four games, and it might have sunk their season (though they’ve the lost both games upon Tua’s return anyway). Meanwhile, the Rams’ quarterback missed his two main weapons for five games, but Matthew Stafford kept the team afloat, and they’ve won both games after the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
Dolphins @ Rams (-2.5, 50)
The above notes are something of a dead giveaway to the bet for this game, since - with a point spread where the home team is favored by less than a field goal - the teams are being rated near equally.
As point spreads go, this one’s had quite an adventure this week, as it opened Rams -2.5, got bet down to almost a pick’em (with the Rams favored ever so slightly), only to move back to -2.5 - potentially off the news that Tyreek Hill is questionable.
If you’re new here (welcome!), we’ve been working off the premise lately that Tua Tagovailoa’s absence masked that the Dolphins are actually a pretty poor team with a few high-profile players.
Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler combined for 1890 snaps played on the defensive line last season. Wilkins went to Las Vegas and Sieler is returning from an injury. Jevon Holland was limited in practice on Saturday. Bradley Chubb, Jaelen Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel (in Minnesota) are also missing, leaving last year’s backups or veteran plug-ins to pick up the slack, and they haven’t done it. This would be made a bigger deal of, if most people weren’t distracted by an offense that had minimal rhythm before Tagovailoa got hurt and a play-caller that couldn’t get Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle the ball while Tua was out.
Obviously, Miami’s offense has improved with Tagovailoa back - 27 points in each of the last two games - but their 28th-ranked defense by DVOA is asking too much of them, especially if Hill’s unable to play (which the line moves seems to suggest), and with right tackle Austin Jackson already ruled out.
As for the Rams, when things weren’t perfect with the active roster, the coach and quarterback worked around it, then beat the Vikings and won in Seattle with their big names back in. At 4-4, the Rams are still in the playoff hunt and are capable of keeping pace.
Pick: Rams -2.5 (FanDuel)
Puka Nacua: Over 5.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Maybe Nacua will make it to the end of the game this week?
Nacua was ejected in Seattle after throwing a punch in frustration after having to deal with the Seahawks’ corners - Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon - and catching just one pass for 11 yards.
The Rams move their star pass-catchers around to get the best matchups, so there should be more than enough times where Nacua is away from Jalen Ramsey. As we saw against the Vikings two Thursdays ago, Sean McVay likes to get the ball to Nacua near the line of scrimmage and let him force the opposing corners to tackle.
Kyren Williams: Longest rush - Under 15.5 yards (-110, DraftKings)
Williams subscribes to the old Marshawn Lynch theory of hitting you over, and over, and over, and over, but as much as the Rams will run the ball repeatedly - and with almost no other running back, Williams rarely rips off big gains.
Williams had a 30-yard carry against the Packers, and a 17-yarder against the Vikings, but that’s just two games out of eight with a long rush, and twice in a whopping 161 carries this season.
Cooper Kupp: Anytime touchdown (+150, DraftKings)
Demarcus Robinson’s been racking up the touchdowns for the Rams the last two games, as Matthew Stafford’s found him while under duress, or going over the top of the defense, but when it comes to drawing up a designed play near the goal line, Cooper Kupp is Stafford’s primary target. At +110 or better, it’s worth betting on the long-time connection to… connect…, as Kupp‘s better than 50/50 to score in a game with a total that suggests they’ll have 3-4 touchdowns.
Tutu Atwell: Anytime touchdown (+800, FanDuel)
We’re Ram-heavy in the props for Monday night, because:
Tyreek Hill’s question-ability (questionable-ness?), has mired the usage and market offerings on the Dolphins’ side.
The Rams’ defense isn’t great, so taking unders on the few Miami players offered isn’t viable.
I will add a flyer on Atwell to score, despite him not having a touchdown this season. Truthfully, I was looking to go “over” on a long pass completion thinking that Stafford will take his customary deep shot to Atwell while the Fins’ secondary worries about Kupp and Nacua. In the meantime, at 8-to-1 odds on FanDuel (much shorter elsewhere), it’s worth a shot that THAT shot will result in a touchdown.