Monday Night Football: Best bets for Giants-Steelers
Points to be hard to come by in Pittsburgh?
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
For the third time this season, we’re getting the Giants in primetime.
For the third time this season, we’re getting the Steelers in primetime.
It’s Week 8.
I think I’m ready to see someone else.
The 5-2 Steelers at least have the record to back up their case for being featured so frequently, but they’re far more interesting as an entertainment entity and betting opportunity, as a short home underdog than as a pretty significant favorite.
Giants @ Steelers (-6, 36.5)
For the Giants, the base-level handicap all season has been three parts:
Is Malik Nabers playing?
How’s the rebuilt offensive line performing?
Can the defense stop the opponent’s run game?
In New York’s best games this season - wins over the Browns and Seahawks, here’s how they’ve fared:
@ Browns
Nabers: 8 rec, 78 yards, 2 TD
Two sacks allowed, 21 carries for 88 yards (4.2 YPC)
18 carries, 69 yards (3.8 YPC)
@ Seahawks
Nabers: Out w/ concussion
Three sacks allowed, 18 carries for 129 yards (7.2 YPC)
11 carries, 102 yards (9.3 YPC)
In the Giants’ wins, it was nice to have Nabers and to stop the run against the Browns, but the tie that binds is the offensive line.
Left tackle Andrew Thomas was lost for the season before last week’s game against the Eagles, and the Giants went from allowing 14 sacks in their first six games to eight against the Eagles alone. Meanwhile, right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor is questionable.
Pittsburgh’s pass rush is somewhat overrated - they’re 20th in the league with 2.1 sacks per game - but the fear is that either TJ Watt or Alex Highsmith disrupt an offense with a quarterback prone to chaos.
The Steelers’ offense came alive last Sunday night, theoretically.
The element of surprise, with Russell Wilson getting his first start, might have helped. It’s easy to forget that, midway through the second quarter, boos were raining in Pittsburgh, as fans were irritated by the offensive futility. Then George Pickens drew a 29-yard pass interference penalty on Sauce Gardner, and followed it with a spectacular touchdown catch.
In the second half, the game turned on a great bounce - off Garrett Wilson’s chest - and an interception return setting up a 1-yard touchdown drive. From there, the Steelers largely worked the ground game against a Jets team that’s fragile enough to have just lost to the Patriots on a comeback drive from Jacoby Brissett.
This total is low for a reason. Barring turnovers that turn into short drives or immediate scores, both defenses should have the advantage. Mike Tomlin can victory-lap his decision to switch quarterbacks, but a week later, we might find that Russell Wilson hasn’t turned back the clock from the version we’ve seen for the last few years. An offense built on “moon-balls” to Pickens and thriving on the ground against bad defenses (Raiders, Jets) to put up big points, might not work as well against the Giants. With New York unlikely to light up the scoreboard either.
Pick: Under 36.5 total points
Daniel Jones: Longest pass completion under 31.5 yards (-110, Bet365)
Simply put, if the Giants can’t protect Daniel Jones, he likely won’t have the time in the pocket to find anyone downfield. At the best of times this season, Jones has just two completion of more than 30 yards. When he escapes the pocket, he’s more likely to tuck and run versus burn a defense down the field.
Nabers, the Giants’ best receiver, should see a heavy dose of Joey Porter Jr., one of the best young corners in the league.
Russell Wilson: Under 15.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
If we think that Wilson might be falling in love with carte-blanche to throw quick-drop, high-lofted passes, in-between handoffs to his duo of tailbacks, there’s less chance he’s willing to take off and run. He had three carries last week, one scramble and two quarterback sneaks. It’s doubtful that designed runs are in the playbook for a player who needed coaxing to run more in Denver.
Jaylen Warren: Over 13.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
The best thing the Giants do is win at the line of scrimmage defensively. Defensive tackle, Dexter Lawrence is a candidate for defensive player of the year (according to that betting market), and, improbably leads the NFL in sacks through last week.
How do you take a big interior defensive threat out of the game? Work the outside of the defense. Jaylen Warren’s seen three targets in each of the two games since his return from injury, and saw a season-high 51% of snaps last week (to Najee Harris’s 49%) with two catches for 15 yards. Expect Wilson to set Warren up with accurate short throws - the type of touch passes that Justin Fields struggled with.
Jaylen Warren: Anytime touchdown (+290, FanDuel)
When taking an under for a game total, it’s not a good strategy to go wild in the anytime touchdown markets. However, we’ll make a couple of plays at longer odds that, if one hits and it means the game goes over, we won’t complain too loudly.
If we think Warren may have some more success than the market thinks, and he’s on the field as much as Harris (around even-money to score) then Warren at close to 3-to-1 should be worth a bet. He was on the field late last week when closing out the game against the Jets.
Darnell Washington: Anytime touchdown (+1200, FanDuel)
After being rarely used in the passing game during his rookie year, the big (6’7, 264 lb.) tight end is becoming a favorite of Mike Tomlin, who said this week that they like to reward the “guys doing the dirty work.”
Washington seemed like a favorite target of Wilson as well last week, as he caught all of a career-high four targets. At 12-1 odds, even a half-unit on Washington to score would pay out nicely, and maybe - like when he scored in Week 2 - the game will stay under the total anyway.