Monday Night Football: Best bets for Ravens-Chargers
Are the coaches related?!?
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
You’re not going to believe the coincidence, but, get this - two brothers are opposing each other in the role of head coach in Los Angeles. I’m not sure it’s ever happened before. You’d think more people would talk about it, especially on football’s biggest stage - a Monday Night Football game in November. Imagine if it ever happened in the Super Bowl?!
Tragically, the Harbaughs - John and Jim - won’t be facing off in February, but their respective teams currently occupy two of the three AFC Wild Card spots, making this a game that both will want to “attack with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.”
Ravens @ Chargers (+2.5, 50.5)
If the concept of “the spot” still exists in the NFL, this game should set up nicely for the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson and company have had an extra day to stew on their worst performance of the season - a loss in Pittsburgh that put them in trailing position in AFC North. Luckily, if they need a boost, it didn’t take long for the Steelers to hand a half-game back to them last Thursday in Cleveland, with the rematch in Baltimore still on the books.
Based on Jackson’s career record against the NFC, the Chargers can take solace in not being in the opposite conference, but Lamar’s 20-6 record in primetime may be troubling for L.A. The Ravens’ fluky loss to the Raiders in Week 2 was the first time Jackson’s lost back-to-back games since an OT loss to the Titans in 2020.
What happens when a team like Baltimore is “exposed” in one game? The market sells in the form of their power rating dropping, and their bar for success is lowered. For example, the lookahead line for this matchup was a flat -3.
Meanwhile, the Chargers won their big game last week, jumping out to a big lead on the Bengals, in a matchup that was supposed to prove their worth as a contender. A 3-touchdown lead became a tie game, and L.A. saved faced with a win, in part due to repeated missed field goal attempts from Evan McPherson.
If the Bengals were able to see those kicks go through the uprights, what’s the line in this game?
You can assume the betting market would be less excited about gobbling up the occasionally available +3s on the Chargers the way they have been over the last week.
On the field, the hesitation for backing the Ravens is their nightmarishly bad pass defense against the top quarterbacks in the league, but we’ll hope that they fare similarly to when they faced Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield, and Bo Nix, rather than their games against Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
Meanwhile, the L.A. defense didn’t have to deal with any kind of a ground threat against the Bengals and still got beat deep repeatedly. Having struggled with Kyler Murray and James Conner (25 combined carries for 165 yards and a touchdown) in their only similar matchup, the Chargers have an even tougher task with Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Pick: Ravens (-2.5, -115 at Bet365)
Isaiah Likely: Longest reception - Over 15.5 yards (-108, at FanDuel)
When Isaiah Likely’s involved in the Ravens’ offense it’s not necessarily a high-volume accumulation of yardage. In ten games this season, Likely’s caught more than two passes four times. However, in six of those 10 games, the elusive and explosive runner has had a catch of 15+ yards.
Likely returned from missing a week with injury to catch four of five targets in Pittsburgh. In close games, Lamar Jackson averages over 36 pass attempts, compared to 20 in games Baltimore wins comfortably. So, in a game expected to be competitive for 60 minutes, Likely should see more than one target down the field - in comfortable, indoor conditions for passing.
Quentin Johnston: Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110, at Bet365)
When facing the Ravens’ secondary (allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 7.8 on the road, even after tightening up in Pittsburgh), you’ll want to pick your L.A. street fighter in the form of a Chargers receiver.
After missing two-and-a-half games midseason, Quentin Johnston’s led the Chargers’ receiving corps in snaps in the last two games. However, he’s gone under this number in both. Two weeks ago, Herbert could take the air out of the ball in an easy win over the Titans, but against the Bengals, he looked at Johnston repeatedly, firing eight total targets his way, connecting on just two for 48 yards.
Look for the two to have higher-percentage success and connect for at least 50 yards.
Justin Herbert: Over 34.5 pass attempts (-114, at FanDuel)
Like Jackson, Herbert’s pass attempt volume is directly correlated to the difficulty of the game he’s in (and his health).
After a bye week that came just in time to give his lower body injuries some rest, Herbert’s gone over this attempt total in all three of their one-possession games, while staying under in the games they’ve won comfortably.
If the Chargers have this one so well in hand that they don’t have to push the passing game in the fourth quarter, we’ll tip our cap to L.A. as a true Super Bowl contender. However, the assumption of rational coaching suggests that Jim’s game plan can’t be to run his stable of tailbacks into John’s league-best run defense (3.4 YPC allowed).
Lamar Jackson: Anytime touchdown (+220, FanDuel)
In big games, Jackson’s more likely to take it upon himself. He hasn’t had a touchdown since scoring back-to-back against the Cowboys and Bills in those early-season games when the NFL community was wringing their hands about Baltimore’s 0-2 start. Now, facing similar adversity, look for Jackson to call his own number. After seven games without a touchdown, these odds are now reflective of a valuable bet.
Quentin Johnston: Anytime touchdown (+240, FanDuel)
If we’re expecting 6-8 targets for Johnston, in what should be another back-and-forth game for two teams that each just did that with the Bengals, then backing Johnston to get into the end zone makes sense.
Johnston’s scored in five of seven games that he’s finished, which is a higher percentage than +240 (29.4% implied probability) suggests, and he’s scored in three straight since getting healthy.
Hassan Haskins: Anytime touchdown (+1600, FanDuel)
Speaking of nearby Hollywood, Jim’s not trying to make “fetch” a thing, but he might be trying to make Hassan Haskins a touchdown scorer. His former Michigan tailback has just five and six snaps in the last two games, but four of the 11 have come near the goal line, including a touchdown against the Titans.
If they find themselves on the 1-yard line, look for the Wolverines Chargers to line up in the modified wing ‘T’ formation and Haskins to be involved. Something that’s worth a half-unit bet to turn into a touchdown at 16-1.