Monday Night Football: Two for the money
Desperate AFC teams meet in Miami, while NFC contenders clash in the Motor City
One of the longest hours in football is the wait from 7pm (EST) to the kickoff of a big Monday Night Football game. The NFL has at least temporarily solved that by just putting another football game in there!
Of course, this is the last time they’re running the MNF double-dip this way, but we’ll enjoy it while we can with double the football, and double the bets.
Titans @ Dolphins (-2.5, 37)
Predictably, the Dolphins got soundly beaten in Seattle in their first game without Tua Tagovailoa. A timing-centric offense didn’t have any, and the defense was consistently put in difficult position. Skylar Thompson wasn’t a viable solution, and the Dolphins likely knew that. After all, they saw him up close in a playoff game two years ago, and opted to keep him on the practice squad in 2023, allowing anyone to pick him up if they wanted.
The same could be said for Tim Boyle, which is why the Dolphins added Tyler “Snoop” Huntley, a player with nine games of starting experience with the Ravens, but who was plucked from Baltimore’s practice squad on September 17th.
Forcing Huntley into action last week, days after being acquired, wouldn’t have been fair to him, but he’s had enough time to run some of the basics in Mike McDaniel’s offense, while also providing a mobile skillset that should allow him to make the off-schedule plays that Thompson and Boyle aren’t equipped for.
Importantly, the Dolphins’ players sound like they’re excited to play with (and for) the South Florida native. Critically, when it comes to valuations, the better setup for Miami also comes with a further drop in their rating from before last week’s game. Going into Seattle, they were considered a 40/100 team by our estimated market rating system. Despite presumed better quarterback play, being a short favorite against a poor team with their own unreliable quarterback equates to a rating in the low-30s. The market has taken notice of the above, moving the Dolphins from a pick’em to -2.5.
We may not need a catastrophic Will Levis decision to win this bet, but we’ll happily take one, in a game lined short of where it should be given how much better the Dolphins should be this week.
Pick: Dolphins (-2.5)
Jonnu Smith: Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110, Bet365)
During his time in Baltimore, playing in place of an injured Lamar Jackson, Huntley’s tendency was to rely on Mark Andrews, targeting the Ravens’ tight end 34 times in five games (6.8 per game). The former Titan was acquired to provide a threat from a position that has been largely overlooked in McDaniel’s offense, but Smith has nine catches, going over this number in the last two games. He was lined at 20.5 before Week 3, but this is actually a better situation for him to produce, and the bar is set six yards lower.
Tyreek Hill: Over 0.5 rushing yards (+240, Bet365)
Let’s mix in a fun sweat for Monday night.
If throwing the ball to your star receiver is going to be a tougher task than usual, why not hand it to him?
Hill frequently catches passes behind the line of scrimmage, but if De’Von Achane and Huntley can be enough of a distraction to the Titans’ defense, we may see Hill swing by for an end around - something they’ve already done once this season. At which point, hopefully he gains positive yardage!
De’Von Achane: Anytime touchdown (+135, DraftKings)
By comparison with other anytime touchdown markets, we know that a No. 1 running back is generally priced around even money to score a touchdown. Achane’s earned that respect, but the assumption seems to be that the Dolphins will have as hard a time scoring as they did in Seattle. Between the change in venue, opponent, and quarterback, I don’t agree with that assumption. Moreover, Huntley is a threat to run near the goal line, and the possibility that McDaniel is less likely to trust him to throw in tight quarters, makes Achane an even more likely candidate to score.
Seahawks @ Lions (-4, 47)
Simply put, as high as my hopes are for the Seahawks and possible contention in the NFC West, even with a 3-0 record, there’s nothing I’ve seen in wins over the Broncos, Patriots, and Tua-less Dolphins, that would make me believe that their rating should be boosted in such a way that at 3.5-point spread makes sense. That would imply that there’s only a point-and-a-half worth of difference between Seattle and the Super Bowl-contenders in Detroit. The market’s taken notice, drifting the line up.
Those backing the Seahawks will cite the work that Mike McDonald’s Ravens’ defense did on shutting out Jared Goff last year in Baltimore. It was one of few games where the Lions’ looked cowardly. However, the Seahawks’ aren’t quite on the level of McDonald’s old defense when it comes to their personnel.
Seattle’s front-seven is ravaged by injury, with potentially upwards of seven regulars missing this game, as Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams - two key elements to their run-stop unit - are already ruled out. That’s not going work against the Lions, who are still built to run right into and through the opposition interior, even without center Frank Ragnow.
Offensively, the Seahawks’ haven’t dealt with a high-end pass-rusher like Aiden Hutchinson, who I expect will be hunting backup tackle Stone Forsythe, preventing Geno Smith to take the deep shots that their offense has thrived on.
Pick: Lions (-4, Pinnacle)
Jared Goff: Under 33.5 pass attempts (-105, Bet365)
It hasn’t been the best start to the season for Jared Goff, and if you believe some takes, McDonald’s going to have him shaking in his boots. However, those missing pieces in the middle are going to be too impactful to pass up, and the Lions should be running the ball on high-volume Monday night. When they’re not, the play-action game should provide Detroit with large chunk plays. The Seahawks’ corners are the best part of their defense, so there’s really no reason for Goff to test them without forcing Seattle to shutdown the run first. Goff finished comfortable under this number twice already this season, and I don’t envision this game getting out of control like their Week 2 game with the Bucs.
Kenneth Walker: Under 55.5 rushing yards (-113, Pinnacle)
Even before what was described as a painful oblique injury, Kenneth Walker was splitting snaps with Zach Charbonnet at 66%-to-34%. While 55.5 is a number lower than the bar Walker leapt over with ease in Week 1, the Hawks’ No. 2 back did well enough in Walker’s absence to get some run on Monday. Even if Walker can make it through what should be a tough game unscathed, the game-script might be such that Walker will have a hard time getting enough carries to surpass this rushing total against a defense allowing just 3.6 yards per carry.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Anytime touchdown (+107, Pinnacle)
Sportsbooks have the Lions’ 2-headed tailback-monster lined at a variety of prices, but if there’s any gap between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, there shouldn’t be. While Montgomery has three touchdowns to Gibbs’ two, Gibbs has more red zone carries/targets. Last season, Montgomery had one more score than Gibbs.
As a whole, Gibbs has been on the field for 20 more plays than Montgomery so far this year, so we’ll take the more explosive player - who may be a mismatch in the passing game - at the better price.