NFC Division betting breakdown
Creating valuable bets and a longshot out west
While the AFC’s divisions have a lot going on with how each has their probability pie cut up, each division on the NFC side kinda looks the same, with what might look like a “vulnerable favorite” - a team that makes sense to the top choice but who you don’t have to dig in too far into to punch a few holes in their case.
For each division, we’ve listed the best odds available for each team, how that translates for their implied win probability, and what widely-used sportsbook you may be able to find the price at.
NFC East
Theoretical synthetic hold: 3.6%
A note on theoretical hold: If you and three friends each like a different team in one division and each put $100 on that team, one of you has to win, right? The sportsbook’s hold is the percentage of that $400 they’ll keep regardless of who wins. Most sportsbooks’ hold can get up beyond 10%, but if you piece together the best prices from the numerous sportsbooks you have access to, you can drop that hold. In the example of the NFC East, this “synthetic” market has a hold of just 3.6%. Using multiple ‘books to give you the best price on what you want to bet is a good first step at being profitable in futures, the same way shopping for the most advantageous point spread can help you win long-term.The hope in Washington is that Jayden Daniels has an RG3-like rookie effect on the Commanders and electric quarterback play - with Kliff Kingsbury at the helm - catapults Washington into a run at first place, and at better than 13-to-1 there’s just enough of a plausible story here to make the Commanders interesting. Just intriguing enough to want to create a bet not on the NFC East winner, so much as we are going to bet against one.
What I mean is that we’re going to get the best number available on the Eagles (-125 at DraftKings) and the Commanders (+1345 at Pinnacle) and create a bet fading the Cowboys (and the Giants, though we’re not remotely worried about them as contenders).
When the Commanders sold two members of their vaunted defensive line last year - trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young - it’s possible they kept the two most consistently effective players in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. With those two causing problems in the interior, Washington can create outside pressure by committee. One that includes Dorance Armstrong (pilfered from Dallas), and well-traveled, effective veterans, Clelin Ferrell and Dante Fowler.
At the second level, Bobby Wagner’s held off the sands of time for two years after first leaving Seattle, and he can organize Dan Quinn’s defense, who still has Jamin Davis (a 2021 first rounder) and adds underrated former Panther Frankie Luvu (236 tackles and 12.5 sacks the last two seasons). The secondary has a ways to go to be included in any sort of bull case, but we’re getting 13-to-1 for a reason.
The Commanders last-place schedule means nine winnable games against the Bucs, Giants (2x), Panthers, Cardinals, Bears, Steelers, Titans, and Saints. Plus, Washington gave the Eagles all they could handle last season in both matchups. The element of surprise - Daniels and an offense with legit skill position players - is enough to include Washington as a semi-hedge when playing the favorite.
2023 crashed and burned for the Eagles, due to two main issues.
The health of Jalen Hurts
An inability to effectively replace two coordinators who were hired as head coaches (Shane Steichen, Jonathan Gannon)
We can’t promise that Hurts will be healthy all season long, but the Eagles hired two experienced coordinators in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. Moore will up the pace and use Hurts’ legs, and even though Jason Kelce’s retired, Philadelphia should still find a way to effectively play “1st-and-9” - the result of having excellent short-yardage conversion rates.
Other issues addressed include a dreadful secondary, investing in both corner and safety through the draft, bringing back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and moving James Bradberry to safety.
By price-shopping for -125 on Philadelphia, you can bet 1.5 units to win 1.2, and bet 0.2 units on Washington at +1300, to win 2.69. If the Eagles win the NFC East, you net one 1-unit profit, and if the Commanders pull it off, you net 1.4 units.
This acts as a -170 bet that the Cowboys (and the Giants) don’t win the NFC East. Given Dallas’s best price to win is +175, -175 would be the fair opposing side. If offered by a sportsbook, the “No” side would be well above -200.
Pick: Eagles (-125, DraftKings), Commanders (+1345, Pinnacle)
NFC North
Theoretical synthetic hold: 4.8%
Building a -170 bet isn’t exactly thrilling, but “value” doesn’t always come in the form of a long shot, or even a plus-money price.
Sometimes it comes in the form of a favorite at plus-money because the next two choices are getting more of the win probability pie than they should.
Initially, this offseason, I was looking like this guy when it comes to looking at the Packers’ division odds.
Then I looked at the schedule. Green Bay is projected as better than a coin-flip favorite in just seven games. So, even though Jordan Love looks like he’s on the way up, and the Packers’ defense should be better having fired Joe Barry, their slate doesn’t equate to value even at a juicier payout.
That’s because the Lions - despite a first-place finish - have a schedule that sees them projected to 57% or better to win in 13 of 17 games. If 11 wins is the minimum to win the NFC North, the Lions’ path is more than 12% better than the Packers’.
That’s before discussing the Lions’ quality.
Keeping Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator was something of a coup, none of their skill position players have hit their prime, the offensive line is the best in the league, and Jared Goff only has to play outdoors three times this season.
Defensively, the Lions front is ready-made, and they’re at least trying to fix a vulnerable secondary. They proved last year that they can win shootouts, so even if they’re still giving up points, we know they can make up for it.
The Packers hot finish to last season, and the understandable excitement about the Bears re-birth has drawn attention from bettors and increased their implied chances of winning the division, taking away percentage points from the Lions, which means Detroit’s payout is higher than it should be for a legit Super Bowl contender.
Pick: Lions (+130, Bet365)
NFC West
Theoretical synthetic hold: 4.3%
“Matt, what’s the deal with these short-priced futures? When are we getting spicy?!” - You, probably.
Well, come on over. *Creepily taps seat next him*
On paper, the 49ers are loaded on both sides of the ball, as we’re well-aware of the last few years. They consistently lose depth pieces, the “disease of more” has crept in when it comes to contract disputes/holdouts, and general mileage is adding up - all things that end runs in the NFL, often earlier than we expect.
The second choice is the Rams, a team that went into last season with the third-lowest win total in the betting market and started the season 3-6 before a hot streak to end the season, only to have their first ballot Hall-of-Famer, Aaron Donald, announce his retirement. Meanwhile, their star quarterback seems to have an arm that’s one throw away from ripping clean off.
Who’s got the juice to make a run at San Francisco?
There were bigger head coaching hires in the offseason, but there might not have been a better one than the Seahawks’ getting Mike McDonald from Baltimore to operate a defense with some high-level talent, particularly in the secondary.
It will be hard to measure how many points that Seattle saves with Pete Carroll’s exit, as it was hard to imagine worse in-game decision making on a weekly basis. Under John Harbaugh - one of the sharper head coaches with regards to winning on the edges via timeouts, challenges, 4th down decisions, etc. - McDonald should give Seattle an incalculable edge compared to years’ past.
In an astute move, McDonald hired Ryan Grubb from the Washington Huskies formidable offense, to call plays on that side of the ball. With Geno Smith (and a viable backup in Sam Howell) throwing to DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Jake Bobo and handing to Kenneth Walker and Kenny McIntosh, if the Seahawks’ offensive line can hold up, this offense could be very dangerous.
It won’t take much to reignite the 12s, providing some of the best home-field advantage in the league, with a +750 price, I’m comfortable making Seattle my NFC longshot play.
Pick: Seahawks (+750 at Bet365)
NFC South
Theoretical synthetic hold: 3.4%
If you’ve bet on the Falcons at any point the last handful of years, you’ve often been left wondering, “Why did I do this again?”.
It always seemed like a good idea, but statuesque Matt Ryan went 25-39 in his last four years in Atlanta while the Falcons sure weren’t being rated as a 39/100, with memories of their Super Bowl appearance in the back of bettors’ minds. Then, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and various others were given the opportunity to operate Arthur Smith’s offense, and it went as badly as imaginable.
These aren’t those Falcons, and we would be foolish to paint Raheem Morris and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson with the same brush.
Atlanta was mocked for taking Michael Penix after putting so much money into bringing in Kirk Cousins, but don’t you feel more comfortable about the Falcons’ chances knowing that Penix is there just in case? That Atlanta apparently saw all they needed from Penix to sit him the rest of the preseason, is a positive sign.
If I’m betting a team to do what they’re supposed to do - and with the other three teams in this division, the Falcons are supposed to win it - I want to know that they’re aware of their deficiencies. GM Terry Fontenot realized the defense needed a talent boost, and went out to get Matthew Judon from New England and sign Justin Simmons. The former still has more than enough to be a pressure-creator, and the latter was available because safety isn’t a high-investment positional priority for teams.
The Saints refuse to rid themselves of Dennis Allen and properly start a rebuild, while the Panthers are so deep under water after the Bryce Young trade, we shouldn’t be worried about either. Which means this comes down to whether the new-look Falcons can top the Buccaneers, who even with back-to-back division titles are just 17-17 the last two seasons, and whose stars are getting older by the minute.
I believe the Falcons are at least 60% to win the NFC South, so anything better than -150 is a valuable bet to make.
Pick: Falcons (-130, Bet365)