NFL Divisional Round: Best bets for Ravens-Bills
The one element that a hopeful instant classic may hinge on
Ravens-Bills will get more attention than a conceptually-fair 25% allotment on a weekend with four Divisional Round playoff games with theoretically-equal stakes. The two teams have earned that hype, as it’s truly unfortunate that one of them is getting eliminated this weekend.
The hope is that we’re in for an all-time classic, but even with a line that opened with the Bills a small favorite, slightly shifting to the Ravens by an eyelash, we know the current NFL.
The increase in fourth-down gambles means plays that used to be worth four points (third downs that result in settling for a field goal versus a touchdown) are now worth seven
Punting situations have become long field-goal attempts, resulting in three points or good field position
Wider winning margins are the result, as often close games have final scores far different than the feel through three quarters.
Not unlike the NBA after the explosion of the 3-pointer, where games are now more exciting throughout play at the expense of a dramatic conclusion.
While it’s tempting to handicap games through the lens of who has the better chance at converting/stopping more fourth downs, we’re still hoping that avoiding fourth downs entirely is the better way to play while leaving the high-leverage moments to the opponent, since, while the risk is optimal, the reward is often not as valuable as a failure is punitive.
Ravens @ Bills (+1, 51.5)
As discussed in the Rams-Eagles preview, we’ve got a second scenario where a team is required to not just turn around a result from a regular season matchup, but need do so in a way where a physical mismatch was present. The Ravens ran for 271 yards against the Bills in Week 4, and it was entirely by design.
Buffalo’s defense is built for modern, pass-heavy NFL football. While they’ve been zigging, the Ravens zagged, adding Derrick Henry after losing in the playoffs in a game where they handed the ball off just six times to their running backs.
The Bills - ready for teams like the Chiefs, Bengals, and 2023 Ravens - aren’t built to stop the combination of Henry and Lamar Jackson, even with a healthy Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano, and Taron Johnson - all who missed the Week 4 showdown in Baltimore. Those players may make a difference, but a 25-point difference?
The Ravens have changed too. Even though they held Josh Allen to 180 passing yards, the first matchup came at a time when the Ravens were among the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Credit an easier back-half of the schedule if you’d like, but the Ravens made a point to make the proper adjustments in their secondary over the course of the season and their pass defense became a strength.
If the Ravens can match up with the Bills’ passing game, they’ll force Buffalo into third- and fourth-down scenarios. This season, Josh Allen’s two most significant plays have come on fourth down, scoring the game sealing touchdown against the Chiefs, and then last week’s wild touchdown pass to Ty Johnson on 4th-and-1. Meanwhile, the Ravens have gone for it a league-low 0.8 times per game. That’s not a result of being afraid to use Jackson or Henry in a high-leverage spot, it’s due to not finding themselves in that situation because they’ve already moved the chains.
The Ravens are 2nd in the NFL with a 49.5% third-down conversion rate and are tops in the league with 0.37 first downs per play.
In a matchup between the two best teams at avoiding turnovers, and two of the three best teams at converting red zone trips into touchdowns, the Bills can win the game by extending drives on fourth down, and making their field goals when forced to attempt them.
Both teams have experienced shaky field-goal kicking, so all that’s left is the fourth-down equation. The Ravens avoid them, while the Bills put their game on the line in these moments. While Allen’s greatness is in his ability to make the heroic play, I prefer to back the side that makes the spectacular happen when it’s not necessary versus when it’s mandatory.
In Baltimore, the Ravens were 2.5-point favorites, so the opening line of Bills -1.5 showed oddsmakers were willing to apply four total points of home-field advantage (two on each side). The early bettors quickly took those points, bringing the line across pick’em, an indicator that the Ravens are likely the right side in what may also be a coaching mismatch, until Sean McDermott proves otherwise by handling a late-game situation with aplomb.
Pick: Ravens ML (-112, FanDuel)
Lamar Jackson: Under 28.5 pass attempts (-115 at Bet365)
It’s going to be cold. By Sunday night, it will be well-below freezing in Buffalo - not exactly conditions you want to be throwing in. Luckily for the Ravens, they have Derrick Henry. Of course, the Bills know this too, but as we saw last week when the Steelers tried to focus on Henry, Jackson chipped away, accumulating yardage on the ground in small doses.
Both teams are going to attempt a game of keep-away, and in what should be a close game, the Ravens’ have learned their lesson when they tried a pass-first approach against the Chiefs last season. If the Ravens are going down, they’re doing so on the ground, one way or another.
Derrick Henry: Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Like I said, the Bills know they’re getting a dose of Henry on the ground. So, some element of self-scouting and playing counter-to-tendency should come into play. With a first-half lead of 21-0 against the Steelers, the Ravens didn’t have to go to the second page of the playbook by throwing it to Henry. However, he’s proven capable, finishing the season with two catches in each of the Ravens’ final three games, after a 3-reception game in Week 14.
Mark Andrews: Under 42.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Whether it’s a run-heavy plan, or another week without Zay Flowers on the field to open up space, Andrews is the one who opposing defenses know that Jackson relies on. While the Ravens’ tight end got loose for just his seventh catch of 20+ yards last week, he only was targeted three times, catching two of them. One of the Bills’ strengths has long been their ability to cover tight ends, as they were third-best in average yards per catch allowed at the position this season.
Dalton Kincaid: Over 31.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
Josh Allen confidently spread the ball around all season and again last week, but in freezing conditions, the Bills should be looking to the most reliable targets, in good matchups. The Ravens allowed the ninth-most targets to opponent tight ends this season. From Week 2 to Week 16, in games that mattered to the Bills, Dalton Kincaid averaged 6.5 targets in the games he played. That’s right alongside Khalil Shakir for Allen’s most popular receiver. With a 35-yard reception last week, Kincaid is capable of contributing a big gain on one play.
Curtis Samuel: Over 1.5 receptions (+100 at Bet365)
I doubt we see a 55-yard gain from Curtis Samuel this week, but that play, and his quickness, should earn him a couple of targets built into the game-plan this week. In chilly temps, against a good pass rush, the Bills’ short-passing game will be the key to extending drives, and Samuel should be atop the list of many to get an opportunity to run after the catch.
Lamar Jackson: Anytime touchdown (+200, Bet365)
It’s not indoors, and only sort of in primetime, but (until next week) it’s the biggest game of the season - a scenario which seems to increase Lamar Jackson’s willingness to tuck it and make a run for the end zone.
As a reminder, Jackson’s four rushing touchdowns have come:
Week 3, in Dallas, when the Ravens were 0-2
Week 4, in primetime, against the Bills
Week 12, on Monday Night Football, at the Chargers (Wild Card rival at the time)
Week 17, at the Texans on Christmas Day
Throw in three rushing touchdowns in seven career playoff games, and a payout equal to one-third win probability is good enough in this duel of MVP candidates.
Isaiah Likely: Anytime touchdown (+280, FanDuel)
Without Flowers, no Raven had more targets sent their way last week than Isaiah Likely. As Baltimore’s receiving touchdown leader, Andrews is considered the No. 1 threat in the red zone, and Rashod Bateman (nine touchdowns plus one last week) has similar odds (+150) to score. Meanwhile, Likely’s six touchdowns this season are nothing to sneeze at, and when the Ravens are in a throwing situation near the end zone, he’s just as, ahem, likely to score as Andrews or Bateman.
Josh Allen: Anytime touchdown (+110, DraftKings)
With 12 touchdowns in (essentially) 16 games, the case for Allen scoring is much easier to make than Jackson. Despite the big gross touchdown number, Allen actually scored in “only” half of the Bills’ games this season, which is why his odds are close to 50/50. However, like Jackson, the bigger the game, and the later in the season, the more often Allen (now healthy after nursing an injured hand for the first half of the season) was willing to take it upon himself to score.
Ty Johnson: Anytime touchdown (+550, Bet365)
If you didn’t know that Allen has the utmost faith in Johnson, throwing it his way on fourth down, while it appeared he was covered at the back of the end zone is one clue. Allen calling Johnson “the best third-down ‘back in the league” repeatedly after the game is another. In a way, that doesn’t give Johnson enough respect, since he was on the field against the Broncos for the same number of snaps as James Cook, and occasionally out-snapped him this season. Like Likely, Johnson’s on the field in throwing situations near the end zone, and his odds dropping from +650 to +550 isn’t enough to take us off the scent of touchdown value.
Dawson Knox: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)
A theme for this time of the season is trust. In 86 regular-season games, Dawson Knox has 23 touchdowns (26.7%) but in 11 career playoff games, Allen’s found Knox for a score six times (54.5%). That spells trust to me.
In the first half of the season, Kincaid had the majority of snaps at the tight end position, but after Kincaid missed some time due to injury, Knox has seen more time on the field, including a 61%-38% split last week. Knox scored just once this season, but that didn’t stop him last season, when he scored only twice, but then got his usual postseason touchdown at long odds.