NFL Divisional Round: Best bets for Rams-Eagles
More of the same in a rematch from Week 12?
Among the list of game-hinging, high-leverage results, the fumbled kick-off return is among my least favorite, since it either means you gave your opponent who just scored another immediate chance of scoring, or the opponent gets the advantage of starting both halves with the ball. So, as bad as things looked for the Packers’ offense, at 16-10 in the second half, the Eagles’ offense hadn’t done much better, save for not turning the ball over. It was a perfect example of how you can win a football if you just don’t make massive mistakes.
On Monday night, the Rams scored early, leading 10-3, in a game that also felt it was more of a domination than the scoreboard indicated. Matthew Stafford fumbled and the ball was returned for a touchdown, but on review it was ruled he threw it away (in as feeble a way as possibly). Minutes later, for one of countless times, Sam Darnold DIDN’T throw the ball away and his actual fumble was returned for a touchdown. Fractions of a second on either side was the difference between 10-10 and 17-3. Would the Rams have gone for it on fourth down late in the first half in a tie game (versus a 14-point deficit) - a failure that quickly turned the game into a blowout?
Both teams likely would have won anyway (the Packers were racked with injuries and Darnold was a mess) but they were also beneficiaries of first-half bounces that blazed a trail for a game script putting one team in the driver’s seat. This, compared to the NFL’s best games which often come down to who wins a high-leverage play late.
Rams @ Eagles (-6, 44)
Both of Sunday’s games offer up the same question: Can you flip the script from being dominated at the line of scrimmage earlier in the season?
With three of four Divisional Round games pitting two teams who played during the regular season, it’s natural to compare what happened the first time around, but there’s a difference between a game that came down to turnover margin, high-leverage plays like fourth downs, or other outlier events (that most frequently occur in the passing game) compared to utter domination at the line of scrimmage.
In Week 12, the Eagles went to L.A., trailed after the first quarter, saw the Rams convert all three of their fourth downs for the game but, undaunted, ran the ball 45 times for 314 yards, winning 37-20. If the Rams are going to turn that result, things are going to have to drastically change in the trenches - a place where they won Monday’s game against the Vikings. Minnesota’s offensive line has been compromised since losing Christian Darrisaw, but there are no holes in the lineup for Philadelphia.
In Arizona, the Rams’ offense came out with a plan - don’t bother testing the Vikings’ good run defense. In their first 15 offensive plays in standard down-and-distance (non-3rd- or 4th-down or goal line), the Rams threw it 12 times and ran just three, despite a full season’s worth of information on a team that gave their No. 1 running back just shy of 20 carries per game. Once L.A. took a big lead, they turned to Kyren Williams to kill the clock, long after the Vikings’ will was lost at sea.
Being one-dimensional early was an option because of a veteran starting quarterback and game-planner that could recognize what Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores wanted to do pre-snap, and get the ball out to the right place quickly. Against the Eagles and Vic Fangio, there’s less worry about blitz pick up, which is actually a bad thing since there’s less vulnerability on the back end, and the Eagles’ secondary is much better than the Vikings’. The Eagles don’t need bells and whistles to create pressure, and Stafford should see that up middle from Jalen Carter and the underrated Milton Williams, and from the outside with Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith.
For Philadelphia last week, Jalen Hurts returned from missing multiple weeks with a concussion and the Eagles’ game plan was conservative, especially after getting gifted the early short field and converting that to a touchdown. Will Hurts have to throw more against the Rams? It took until Week 15 for the Eagles to “prove” (To us? Themselves?) that they could throw the ball at will effectively, but at least they did. In Week 12, they didn’t need to. Overall, the Rams’ defense was 23rd in opponent yards per play this season, while Green Bay’s was fifth.
By avoiding a must-win situation in Week 18, Sean McVay (and Stafford) could rest his stars and begin preparation for either the Lions or the Vikings (having already played and competed with both), while the two teams battled for the No. 1 seed. For Sunday’s game, the Rams have a short week to prepare. Plus, their frame of reference - a blowout loss - is different, compared to their knowledge of what their former offensive coordinator wanted to do on Monday, and the confidence of having already beat Minnesota.
Out of respect for McVay’s ability to game-plan with a script for the Rams’ first 15 plays, and with the knowledge that the Eagles are a better second-half team, thanks to an ability to wear down the opponent and pull away after halftime, it’s worth acknowledging that it may be best to wait and live-bet the Eagles after the first quarter, or a pair of offensive drives. Especially knowing that Saquon Barkley may be more willing to house a late touchdown, after hearing it from teammates and fans alike for sliding down late against the Packers.
If you’re looking for a place to start, at -6, there’s some value on the Eagles, as the Rams’ team rating is at the top end of the range to which they’ve played, while Philadelphia’s settled in amongst the Super Bowl contenders atop the market ratings.
Pick: Eagles (-6, DraftKings) / Look to be the Eagles live after a slow start
Matthew Stafford: Over 20.5 pass completions (-114 at FanDuel)
In the second quarter, the Rams scored a defensive touchdown and then again on a drive that required just two pass completions thanks to good field position. In the second half, they didn’t need to force the issue, and Stafford still completed 19 passes for the game. As 6-point underdogs, this should be a considerably different game-script. In the six games that Stafford lost this season, he completed 19 or more in all of them. Against the Eagles’ formidable front, Stafford should be looking to his outlets - with short passes to Nacua, Williams, and his tight ends - to stay out of harm’s way.
Cooper Kupp: Under 41.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at Bet365)
Kupp hasn’t had a rushing attempt since Week 1, so we’re getting a couple of extra yards on top of the 39.5 yards he’s lined at just for receiving. Kupp briefly turned back the clock for a leaping 29-yard reception on Monday night, but, with now four straight games with three targets or less, it doesn’t look like Kupp is 100% and a tough Philly secondary doesn’t offer any good matchups with either Darius Slay or star rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean covering the aging receiver.
Jalen Hurts: Over 37.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365)
While it wasn’t in the plan to have Hurts drop back excessively last week, the Eagles had no problem with their quarterback taking off and running, as Hurts carried the ball six times for 36 yards. While that total won’t cash the over this week, Hurts’ had no fewer than seven carries in any game he finished this season. If there’s another carry or two (or more) in the cards this Sunday, against a team he carried the ball 12 times against earlier this year, then Hurts should be able to clear this total, especially with so much attention paid to Barkley.
DeVonta Smith: Over 4.5 receptions (-115 at Bet365)
It would be hard for the Rams not to have a better start than the Packers did last week, so if they can convert a few early drives and force some urgency from the Eagles’ offense, DeVonta Smith should be the primary recipient. Smith missed the first meeting, which encouraged the run-heavy Eagles approach, but he caught all four of his targets in a game where Hurts only completed 13 passes. The well-read AJ Brown has complained of how banged up he is heading into these playoffs, but he’s still getting No. 1 receiver attention, even though Smith might be the actual handler of that role in the Eagles’ offense.
Puka Nacua: Anytime touchdown (+150, Bet365)
Nacua had just three games with a touchdown in the regular season, so betting him to score at +150 in every game would be a losing proposition. However, all of Nacua’s touchdowns came from Week 11 onwards, scoring four times in seven games. With Kupp potentially not what he once was physically, it makes sense that Nacua is now getting the first look near the goal line, and his physicality offers the best chance to matchup with the Eagles’ corners.
Colby Parkinson: Anytime touchdown (+700, DraftKings)
Just a couple games after returning from his ACL injury, Tyler Higbee was in the hospital on Monday night with a chest contusion. While the Rams say he may play on Sunday, even if that’s the case, Parkinson out-snapped Higbee down the stretch, and even though Davis Allen caught a touchdown in Higbee’s absence, Parkinson’s the best receiver of the remaining position group. At 7-to-1 odds, he’s a worthy long-shot play to score.
Jalen Hurts: Anytime touchdown (-110, FanDuel)
Our Eagles’ touchdown bets won’t deviate far from our player prop plays, starting with Hurts to score. Obviously, his is the number that gets called should the ball be anywhere near the goal line, but he didn’t get a chance to score from in close against the Packers. Also, if we think Hurts might run for bigger chunks of yardage, he might take one in from a little further out than usual.
DeVonta Smith: Anytime touchdown (+220, FanDuel)
Smith’s eight touchdowns in the regular season were tops among Eagles’ receivers, but he’s still lined as less likely to score than Brown. Smith is hurts No. 1 target both between the 20s and the end zone, but Brown gets more attention for his personality.